Search results for "Dynamic"
showing 10 items of 12329 documents
Assessing the predictability of Medicanes in ECMWF ensemble forecasts using an object-based approach
2018
The predictability of eight southern European tropical-like cyclones, seven of which Medicanes, is studied evaluating ECMWF operational ensemble forecasts against operational analysis data. Forecast cyclone trajectories are compared to the cyclone trajectory in the analysis by means of a dynamic time warping technique, which allows to find a match in terms of their overall spatio-temporal similarity. Each storm is treated as an object and its forecasts are analysed using metrics that describe intensity, symmetry, compactness, and upper-level thermal structure. This object-based approach allows to focus on specific storm features, while tolerating their shifts in time and space to some exten…
Lagrangian simulations of stable isotopes in water vapor: An evaluation of nonequilibrium fractionation in the Craig-Gordon model
2009
[1] The Craig-Gordon model is the basis for the parameterization of water isotope fractionation during evaporation from the ocean in many atmospheric isotope models. Its exact formulation (e.g., with respect to the nonequilibrium fractionation factor k) is mainly based on theoretical considerations and not very well constrained by observations. This study addresses this issue by combining a recently developed Lagrangian moisture source analysis with a Craig-Gordon fractionation parameterization for the identified evaporation events in order to model isotope ratios in water vapor. This technique is applied to 45 measurement days of isotopes in water vapor at Rehovot (Israel) during the years…
Experimental modeling of viscous inclusions in a circular high-strain shear rig: Implications for the interpretation of shape fabrics and deformed en…
2002
[1] Deformation experiments with initially spherical and prolate viscous inclusions suspended in a viscous Newtonian matrix in a circular high strain annular shear rig provide insights on the shape development of inclusions in high strain shear zones during progressive deformation. Inclusions with a specific viscosity ratio with respect to the matrix material show distinct types of three-dimensional shape development. For instance, at a high viscosity ratio between matrix and inclusion a pulsating ellipsoid develops, which both continuously rotates and changes its shape from a sphere to an ellipsoid and back to a sphere. The experiments show that the shape of an inclusion that has a viscosi…
Implementation of pressure reduction valves in a dynamic water distribution numerical model to control the inequality in water supply
2013
The analysis of water distribution networks has to take into account the variability of users' water demand and the variability of network boundary conditions. In complex systems, e.g. those characterized by the presence of local private tanks and intermittent distribution, this variability suggests the use of dynamic models that are able to evaluate the rapid variability of pressures and flows in the network. The dynamic behavior of the network also affects the performance of valves that are used for controlling the network. Pressure reduction valves (PRVs) are used for controlling pressure and reducing leakages. Highly variable demands can produce significant fluctuation of the PRV set po…
A new airborne tandem platform for collocated measurements of microphysical cloud and radiation properties
2009
Abstract. A new airborne tandem measurement platform for cloud-radiation interaction studies is introduced in this paper. It consists of a Learjet 35A research aircraft and the AIRcraft TOwed Sensor Shuttle (AIRTOSS), which is an instrumented drag-body towed by the Learjet. Currently, the AIRTOSS is instrumented with a Cloud Imaging Probe (CIP) for measuring cloud microphysical properties and an Inertial Navigation System (INS) for measurements of flight attitudes. The cable dragging AIRTOSS can be as long as four kilometres. Thus, truly collocated measurements in two altitudes above, in, and below clouds can be obtained. Results from first test flights with Learjet and AIRTOSS are reported…
A reexamination of the equilibrium conditions in the theory of water drop nucleation
1975
The thermodynamic equations necessary to describe the conditions for equilibrium between a highly curved surface of a liquid and its vapour are re-examined. The complete equilibrium behaviour is reduced to one single differential equation for each component in an arbitrary c -component system. It is shown that this general formulation can be specialized to describe the conditions for equilibrium between water vapour and a pure water drop, the drop carrying an electric charge, containing a water soluble substance and/or containing a water insoluble nucleus. In the light of the present formulation, some incorrect physical statements of treatments by various authors reported in literature are …
Comparative study on immersion freezing utilizing single-droplet levitation methods
2021
Immersion freezing experiments were performed utilizing two distinct single-droplet levitation methods. In the Mainz vertical wind tunnel, supercooled droplets of 700 µm diameter were freely floated in a vertical airstream at constant temperatures ranging from −5 to −30 ∘C, where heterogeneous freezing takes place. These investigations under isothermal conditions allow the application of the stochastic approach to analyze and interpret the results in terms of the freezing or nucleation rate. In the Mainz acoustic levitator, 2 mm diameter drops were levitated while their temperature was continuously cooling from +20 to −28 ∘C by adapting to the ambient temperature. Therefore, in this case th…
New investigations on homogeneous ice nucleation: the effects of water activity and water saturation formulations
2022
Laboratory measurements at the AIDA cloud chamber and airborne in-situ observations suggest that the homogeneous freezing thresholds at low temperatures are possibly higher than expected from the so-called “Koop-line”. This finding is of importance, because the ice onset relative humidity affects the cirrus cloud coverage and, at the very low temperatures of the tropical tropopause layer, together with the number of ice crystals also the transport of water vapor into the stratosphere. Both, the appearance of cirrus clouds and the amount of stratospheric water feed back to the radiative budget of the atmosphere. In order to explore the enhanced ice onset humidities, we re-examine…
A New Look at Homogeneous Ice Nucleation in Supercooled Water Drops
1995
Abstract The classical theory for homogeneous ice nucleation in supercooled water is investigated in the light of recent data published in various physico-chemical journal on the physical properties of supercooled water and in the light of recent evidence that the cooperative nature of the hydrogen bonds between water molecules is responsible for a singularity behavior of pure supercooled water at −45°C. Recent rates for homogeneous ice nucleation in supercooled water drops field from field experiments at the cirrus cloud level and from cloud chamber studies were shown to be quantitatively in agreement with the laboratory-derived lowest temperatures to which ultrapure water drops of a given…
Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts
2017
The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order …