Search results for "E31"
showing 7 items of 7 documents
The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion
2014
We investigate the determinants of the volatility of fiscal policy discretion. Using a linear dynamic panel dataset model for 104 countries from 1980 to 2006 and a system-GMM estimator,we find that more government instability, less democracy and presidentialist systems increase the volatility of the discretionary component of fiscal policy. Additionally, we show that countries with a larger size, a smaller degree of financial openness, and a stable exchange rate system are more insured against the uncertainty about the conduct of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various regional dummy variables, diferent sub-sets of countries and the presence of high inflation and crisis episodes.
Price convergence of peripheral European countries on the way to the EMU: A time series approach
2000
This paper examines price and inflation convergence between three European countries (Italy, Spain and the U.K.) and a European average and, alternatively, between them and Germany from the beginning of the 80's.
A Naïve Sticky Information Model of Households’ Inflation Expectations
2009
This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested in Carroll [2003, Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 269-298]. The posterior model probabilities based on the Michigan survey data strongly support the proposed model. We also extend the agent-based epidemiology model by deriving for it a simple adaptation, which is suitable for estimation. Our results show that this model is able to capture the heterogeneity in households’ expe…
A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU
2001
In this paper we estimate a small forward-looking macroeconomic model for EMU which allows us to analyze the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank through an interest rate rule that stabilizes inflation and output. The estimation of this model, which comprises forward-looking versions of the IS and the Phillips curves as well as the interest rate rule, is conducted by GMM using quarterly data from 1986 to 2000. We find that this simple model matches the dynamic properties of the output gap, inflation and the interest rate in EMU quite accurately. We also perform several exercises that show the response of output, inflation and interest rates …
Inflation dynamics in a model with firm entry and (some) heterogeneity
2014
We analyse the incidence of endogenous entry and firm TFP-heterogeneity on the response of aggregate inflation to exogenous shocks. We build up an otherwise standard DSGE model in which the number of firms is endogenously determined and firms differ in their steady state level of productivity. This splits the industry structure into firms of different sizes. Calibrating the different transition rates, across firm sizes and out of the market we reproduce the main features of the distribution of firms in Spain. We then compare the inflation response to technology, interest rate and entry cost shocks, among others. We find that structures in which large (more productive) firms predominate tend…
Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in the Spanish economy
1999
As the Spanish economy gets more integrated in international markets, the real exchange rate becomes a key determinant of the monetary transmission. In this paper we trace out the dynamic response of prices, output and the exchange rate following a monetary policy shock. We estimate a structural VAR model whose identification scheme is based on the long run properties common to a large class of models. The results suggest that a small model with efficient asset markets plus nominal inertia and long run monetary neutrality, captures the essential features of the monetary transmission mechanism in Spain. The interest rate shock is well identified and the exchange rate overshoots its long run …
Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence
2015
We study the impact of global food price shocks on domestic inflation in a large group of countries. For advanced economies, a 10% increase in global food inflation raises domestic inflation by about 0.5 percentage point after a year; however, the impact has declined over time and become less persistent. The global food price shocks of the 2000s had a much bigger impact on domestic inflation in emerging and developing economies than in advanced economies. This could reflect the smaller share of food in the consumption baskets in advanced economies. We also provide evidence that inflation expectations are more anchored in advanced than in emerging economies, which could also explain the smal…