Search results for "E32"
showing 10 items of 34 documents
Banking Competition, Collateral Constraints and Optimal Monetary Policy
2013
We analyze optimal monetary policy in a model with two distinct financial frictions. First, borrowing is subject to collateral constraints. Second, credit flows are intermediated by monopolistically competitive banks, thus giving rise to endogenous lending spreads. We show that, up to a second order approximation, welfare maximization is equivalent to stabilization of four goals: inflation, output gap, the consumption gap between constrained and unconstrained agents, and the distribution of the collateralizable asset between both groups. Following both financial and non-financial shocks, the optimal monetary policy commitment implies a short-run trade-off between stabilization goals. Such p…
Inflation dynamics in a model with firm entry and (some) heterogeneity
2014
We analyse the incidence of endogenous entry and firm TFP-heterogeneity on the response of aggregate inflation to exogenous shocks. We build up an otherwise standard DSGE model in which the number of firms is endogenously determined and firms differ in their steady state level of productivity. This splits the industry structure into firms of different sizes. Calibrating the different transition rates, across firm sizes and out of the market we reproduce the main features of the distribution of firms in Spain. We then compare the inflation response to technology, interest rate and entry cost shocks, among others. We find that structures in which large (more productive) firms predominate tend…
Macroeconomic Modelling in EMU: How Relevant is the Change in Regime?
2007
We analyse the likely effects of changes in the monetary and financial regimes of EMU countries on the dynamics of output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced-form models. Data for both the pre-EMU and the EMU regimes are generated by a relatively standard open-economy-DSGE model with sticky prices and wages and restricted access to financial markets for some individuals. We find that the effects of the shift in the monetary regime on the processes followed by macroeconomic variables depend on the nature of the shocks hitting the economy. For plausible shocks distributions the reduction in the accuracy of VAR-base…
A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU
2001
In this paper we estimate a small forward-looking macroeconomic model for EMU which allows us to analyze the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank through an interest rate rule that stabilizes inflation and output. The estimation of this model, which comprises forward-looking versions of the IS and the Phillips curves as well as the interest rate rule, is conducted by GMM using quarterly data from 1986 to 2000. We find that this simple model matches the dynamic properties of the output gap, inflation and the interest rate in EMU quite accurately. We also perform several exercises that show the response of output, inflation and interest rates …
KEYNES’S EUROPEANISM AS SHOWN IN “THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE”
2012
European integration and enlargement, in the context of decreasing support of European country nationals, needs great men and great ideas standing with. J.M.Keynes proves in his book”The Economic Consequences of the Peace” that there is no other way for Europe than acts together. His economic reasons for which European countries “throb together” are presented here and supported with data. This article, with a historical approach, brings another important and strong view on the side of Europeanism.
Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis
2014
Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the current crisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period. We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which are particularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration depen…
Spain in the euro: a general equilibrium analysis
2010
Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models combine microeconomic behavioural foundations with a full-system Bayesian likelihood estimation approach using key macro-economic variables. Because of the usefulness of this class ofmodels for addressing questions regarding the impact and consequences of alternative monetary policies they are nowadays widely used for forecasting and policy analysis at central banks and other institutions. In this paper we provide a brief description of the two main aggregate euro area models at the ECB. Both models share a common core but their detailed specification differs reflecting their specific focus and use. The New Area Wide Model (NAWM)…
FISCAL POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND FINITE HORIZONS
2003
In this paper we analyse the stabilisation properties of distortionary taxes in a New Keynesian model with overlapping generations of finitely-lived consumers. In this framework, government debt is part of net wealth and this adds a number of interesting channels through which fiscal policy could affect output and inflation. Output volatility, in presence of technology shocks, is not substantially affected by the operation of automatic stabilisers but we find interesting composition effects. While the presence of finitely-lived households strengthens the stabilisation performance of distortionary taxes through the reduction of the volatility of consumption, it does so at the cost of more vo…
MACROECONOMIC SYNCHRONIZATION BETWEEN G3 COUNTRIES
2002
This paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices, and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the U.S. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates that, in the last four decades, these comovements are clearly significant in all the variables, with the possible exception of short-term interest rates, and they are stronger for long-term interest rates; nevertheless, they are rather unstable over time. Este artículo estudia la existencia de un ciclo económico mundial mediante elexamen de movimientos comunes…
Automatic stabilizers, fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability
2006
This paper analyzes the effect of the fiscal structure upon the trade-off between inflation and output stabilization in the presence of technological shocks in a DGE model with nominal and real rigidities. The model reproduces the main features of European economies and it integrates a rich menu of fiscal variables as well as a target on the debt to output ratio. The main result of this paper is that distortionary taxes tend to increase output volatility relative to lump-sum taxes unless substantial rigidities are present. We explore in detail the mechanisms that generate such a result, and the conditions under which the supply-side effects of distortionary taxes and the procyclical behavio…