Search results for "EPIDEMIC"

Simple epidemic model by a Markov chain

2008

In this paper we propose a continuous-time Markov chain to describe a SIs model with and without external reinfection

A note on stochastic model of malaria with periodic coefficients

2009

Modello stocastico di epidemia

2007

Il costo sociale del morbillo in età pediatrica. L’epidemia a Palermo nel 1996-97

1999

Objective To determine the direct and indirect costs associated with a measles epidemic occurring between September 1996 and August 1997 in Palermo (Italy) in paediatric-aged patients. Design A total of 2,029 cases of measles in a paediatric patient population were identified from a total of 38 paediatricians databases (24% of total). An extrapolation to the general population was then performed to estimate a total of 9,059 cases. Patient information obtained from the database such as patient age, risk factors, complications, vaccination history, as well as caretaker’s profession were included in a questionnaire compiled for each patient. Setting Inpatient and outpatient clinics in Palermo,…

Pediatric Systemic Multi-Inflammatory Diseases in Italy During Sars-Cov-2 Epidemic: From Kawasaki Disease To Kawacovid

2020

Introduction: Italy was affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after its outbreak in China. With a 4-weeks delay after the peak in adults, we observed an abnormal number of patients with characteristics of a multi-inflammatory disease and similarities with Kawasaki Disease (KD). Others reported similar cases, defined PIMS-TS or MIS-C.1,2 Objectives: To better characterize clinical features and treatment response of PIMS-TS and to explore its relationship with KD. Methods: We conducted an observational, retrospective, multicenter study. On April 24th-2020 the Rheumatology Study Group of the Italian Pediatric Society launched a national online survey, to enroll patients diagnosed with KD or with…

Community-based Immunization Strategies for Epidemic Control

2014

Understanding the epidemic dynamics, and finding out efficient techniques to control it, is a challenging issue. A lot of research has been done on targeted immunization strategies, exploiting various global network topological properties. However, in practice, information about the global structure of the contact network may not be available. Therefore, immunization strategies that can deal with a limited knowledge of the network structure are required. In this paper, we propose targeted immunization strategies that require information only at the community level. Results of our investigations on the SIR epidemiological model, using a realistic synthetic benchmark with controlled community…

Syphilis 2001 a palaeopathological reappraisal

2002

The origin and subsequent spread of the treponematoses, especially that of venereal syphilis, has been the subject of considerable scientific attention. Various theories were put forth and palaeopathological specimens were used for their validation in recent times. One influential contribution was the paper by Baker & Armelagos in 1988. Numerous new findings and results on both sides of the Atlantic call for a new evaluation of the available osseous material. A review of the recent literature leads to the suggestion of a worldwide distribution of non-venereal treponemal disease since the emergence of Homo and to a first epidemic outbreak of venereal syphilis in Europe of the late 15th and t…

Using random networks to study the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Spanish region of Valencia

2011

[EN] Seasonal fluctuations in the incidence of several respiratory infections are a feature of epidemiological surveys all around the world. This phenomenon is characteristic of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus pandemics. However, the explanation of the seasonal outbreaks of these diseases remains poorly understood. Many statistical studies have been carried out in order to provide a correlation of the outbreaks with climatic or social factors without achieving a definitive conclusion. Here we show that, in a random social network, self-sustained seasonal epidemics emerge as a process modulated by the infection probability and the immunity period after recovering from the infection…

Kult św. Rocha w Dobrzeniu Wielkim jako reakcja na epidemie XVII-XIX w. (na przykładzie Opolszczyzny)

2021

For nearly four centuries, the cult of St. Roch in Dobrzeń Wielki has been nurtured. In 1658, a church was built there as a token of gratitude that the prayers of the faithful had been heard and the plague had stopped. Peoples responses to the epidemics which they had experienced varied widely. They were treated as misfortunes accompanying natural disasters, which resulted in poverty and hunger. They were also a consequence ofman-made wars. Their frequent occurrence was influenced by poor hygienic conditions in which they used to live. Doctors did not also have much experience in combating infectious diseases. They were often treated as a divine punishment for sins. Therefore, efforts were …

Elasticity as a measure for online determination of remission points in ongoing epidemics.

2020

The correct identification of change-points during ongoing outbreak investigations of infectious diseases is a matter of paramount importance in epidemiology, with major implications for the management of health care resources, public health and, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, social live. Onsets, peaks, and inflexion points are some of them. An onset is the moment when the epidemic starts. A "peak" indicates a moment at which the incorporated values, both before and after, are lower: a maximum. The inflexion points identify moments in which the rate of growth of the incorporation of new cases changes intensity. In this study, after interpreting the concept of elasticity of a random va…