Search results for "ESTIMATION"
showing 10 items of 924 documents
Trade law and trade flows
2019
This paper develops and estimates a model to study the effect of improving the quality of commercial trade law on trade flows. We focus on improvements aimed to privately resolve disputes among trading partners: international commercial arbitration and conciliation. The main novelty of the model is to explicit the balance between the contractual quality of importer and exporter (contractual distance) in an environment with informational frictions (contractual noise). Using a structural gravity estimation with high‐dimensional fixed effects, the main contribution of the empirical exercise is to confirm previous results and unravel new traits that align with our theoretical results. Arbitrati…
Testing Profitability of Technical Trading Rules
2017
Technical traders typically rely on back-testing which is defined as the process of testing a trading strategy using relevant historical data. Back-testing usually involves “data mining” which denotes the practice of finding a profitable trading strategy by extensive search through a vast number of alternative strategies. This chapter explains that the data-mining procedure tends to find a strategy which performance benefited most from luck. As a result, the performance of the best strategy in a back test is upward biased. This fact motivates that any back-test must be combined with a data-mining correction procedure that adjusts downward the estimated performance. Another straightforward m…
A computational proposal for a robust estimation of the Pareto tail index: An application to emerging markets
2022
Abstract In this work, we backtest and compare, under the VaR risk measure, the fitting performances of three classes of density distributions (Gaussian, Stable and Pareto) with respect to three different types of emerging markets: Egypt, Qatar and Mexico. We also propose a new technique for the estimation of the Pareto tail index by means of the Threshold Accepting (TAVaR) and the Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (H-PSOVaR). Furthermore, we test the accuracy and robustness of our estimates demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Combining flow routing modelling and direct velocity measurement for optimal discharge estimation
2011
Abstract. A new procedure is proposed for estimating river discharge hydrographs during flood events, using only water level data measured at a gauged site, as well as 1-D shallow water modelling and sporadic maximum surface flow velocity measurements. During flood, the piezometric level is surmised constant in the vertical plane of the river section, where the top of the banks is always above the river level, and is well represented by the recorded stage hydrograph. The river is modelled along the reach directly located downstream the upstream gauged section, where discharge hydrograph is sought after. For the stability with respect to the topographic error, as well as for the simplicity o…
THE SELF-ESTIMATION OF THE HEALTH LEVEL, PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES AND FEELING OF THE RIGA BASIC SCHOOL STUDENTS AND UNIVERSITY PEDAGOGICAL SPECIALTY STUDE…
2018
Students is a group of population, who experience psychological overload and emotional strain. These factors could have a negative impact on student's health, but good health level and positive mood are important factors for high learning outcomes. The survey of Riga 2nd Gymnasium 9th grade basic school students and University of Latvia 1st course pedagogical speciality students was carried out. The self-estimation of health level, physical activities and feeling at school and at home of the both group students was compared. The results of the survey showed that the majority of students have good health level or they have minor health problems. Physical activity of basic school students is …
Estimation of Daily Solar Radiation from Measured Air Temperature Extremes in the Mid-Mediterranean Area
2012
AbstractDaily solar radiation Rs at ground level is a necessary input variable required for the evaluation of evapotranspiration and crop growth, development, and yield-simulation models. Nevertheless, it is measured in few weather stations and at many locations it is not observed; also, available Rs temporal series are generally no longer than a few years. A valid surrogate of Rs measurement is the diurnal air-temperature range (ΔT); indeed, ΔT is inversely proportional to cloudiness and therefore could be a good indicator of atmospheric transmittance. As opposed to Rs, daily maximum and minimum air temperatures are measured at many locations and their observations in developed countries b…
CorCast: A Distributed Architecture for Bayesian Epidemic Nowcasting and its Application to District-Level SARS-CoV-2 Infection Numbers in Germany
2021
Timely information on current infection numbers during an epidemic is of crucial importance for decision makers in politics, medicine, and businesses. As information about local infection risk can guide public policy as well as individual behavior, such as the wearing of personal protective equipment or voluntary social distancing, statistical models providing such insights should be transparent and reproducible as well as accurate. Fulfilling these requirements is drastically complicated by the large amounts of data generated during exponential growth of infection numbers, and by the complexity of common inference pipelines. Here, we present CorCast – a stable and scalable distributed arch…
Estimation of Uncertain Relations between Indeterminate Temporal Points
2000
Many database applications need to manage temporal information and sometimes to estimate relations between indeterminate temporal points. Indeterminacy means that we do not know exactly when a particular event happened. In this case, temporal points can be defined within some temporal intervals. Measurements of these intervals are not necessarily based on exactly synchronized clocks, and, therefore, possible measurement errors need to be taken into account when estimating the temporal relation between two indeterminate points. This paper presents an approach to calculate the probabilities of the basic relations (before, at the same time, and after) between any two indeterminate temporal poi…
Efficiency and Productivity of Italian Touris Destinations: A Quantitative Estimation Based on Data Envelopment Analysis and the Malmquist Method
2007
This paper aims to provide a statistical analysis of the relative economic performance of Italian tourist areas. It uses two modelling approaches to estimate the competitiveness of these regions, viz. data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist method. Our results show that the competitiveness position of several Italian regions has not improved over the years under consideration.
Testing the Role of Comparative Advantage and Learning in Wage and Promotion Dynamics
2012
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically whether job assignment, based on comparative advantage and learning about workers’ abilities, can explain wage and promotion dynamics within firms.Design/methodology/approachThe Gibbons and Waldman model is estimated in a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework using a unique data set on white‐collar workers in Norway, for the years 1987‐1997. The estimation is carried out on two occupational groups: technical and administrative white‐collar workers.FindingsThe placing of workers in a given position within a firm's hierarchy is based on comparative advantage. Both measurable and unmeasurable skills are important. This hold…