Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
The information content of Eonia swap rates before and during the financial crisis
2013
Abstract Before August 2007, implied forward rates in the overnight interest swap rates closely reflected market expectations about the future path of the Eonia, and therefore, about the future course of the ECB’s monetary policy stance. Nevertheless, this link was weakened considerably during the most acute episode of the financial crisis. Using the expectations hypothesis of the term structure as a benchmark model for the determination of the overnight interest swap rates, we find that after May 2010 the monetary transmission mechanism was partially restored when the ECB implemented various ‘unconventional measures’ in response to the financial crisis. On the contrary, liquidity and credi…
Can Euribor be fixed?
2020
The manipulation of Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor) is a problem with great impact on international financial markets. This paper focuses on two aspects of the Euribor benchmark rate for the period 2004–2018: the specific features that make the Index more vulnerable to manipulation and the potential for Index manipulation over the studied period. To address the first aspect, we examine the range and the standard deviation of daily quotes, as well as the panel banks’ quote submissions to the Euribor administrator, the maximum and minimum quotes and the daily variation of submissions. As a result, we found a group of five banks with similar and extreme submission patterns, which might b…
Gender Gaps in Wages and Mortality Rates During Industrialization: The Case of Alcoy, Spain, 1860–1914
2021
What role did women play during industrialization? Interpretations of this key period of our history have been largely based on analyses of male work. In this paper, we offer evidence of the effects of women's involvement in the industrialization process that took place in Alcoy, Spain, over the period 1860-1914. Using data drawn from historical sources, we analyse labour-force participation rates and wage series for women and men in the textile industry and three other sectors of activity (education, health and low-skill services). We then connect the gender pay gaps with life expectancy indicators. Our results suggest that women's contribution to household income might have favoured the f…
Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategies Basedon Unexpected Volatility
2014
The author documents that at the aggregate stock market level, unexpected volatility is negatively related to expected future returns, and positively related to future volatility. The author demonstrates how the predictive ability of unexpected volatility can be utilized in dynamic asset allocation strategies that deliver a substantial improvement in terms of risk-adjusted performance as compared to traditional buy-and-hold strategies. In addition, the author shows that active strategies based on unexpected volatility outperform the popular active strategy with a volatility target mechanism, and have some edge over the popular market timing strategy with a 10-month simple moving average rul…
Desigualdad de género en tiempos de crisis: análisis comparativo de la economía social
2011
La crisis economica en la que aun se halla inmersa la economia espanola ha sido especialmente procaz en el mercado laboral. Las abultadas cifras de desempleo parecen enmascarar una tetrica situacion que es experimentada de desigual forma por hombres y mujeres. En este contexto, el objetivo fundamental de este articulo estriba en analizar si las diferencias de genero existentes en el mercado laboral espanol se manifiestan del mismo modo durante la actual crisis o bien se aprecian diferencias entre la epoca de recesion y la inmediatamente anterior. Valorar si la crisis ha afectado por igual a los miembros de uno y otro sexo o si ha habido diferencias sustanciales entre ellos, conforma el hilo…
Testing for Asymmetric Information in Insurance Markets: A Multivariate Ordered Regression Approach
2016
The positive correlation (PC) test is the standard procedure used in the empirical literature to detect the existence of asymmetric information in insurance markets. This article describes a new tool to implement an extension of the PC test based on a new family of regression models, the multivariate ordered logit, designed to study how the joint distribution of two or more ordered response variables depends on exogenous covariates. We present an application of our proposed extension of the PC test to the Medigap health insurance market in the United States. Results reveal that the risk–coverage association is not homogeneous across coverage and risk categories, and depends on individual so…
A Test of Covariance-Matrix Forecasting Methods
2015
Providing a more accurate covariance matrix forecast can substantially improve the performance of optimized portfolios. Using out-of-sample tests, in this article the author evaluates alternative covariance matrix-forecasting methods by looking at: (1) their forecast accuracy, (2) their ability to track the volatility of a minimum-variance portfolio, and (3) their ability to keep the volatility of a minimum-variance portfolio at a target level. The author finds large differences between the methods. The results suggest that shrinking the sample covariance matrix improves neither the forecast accuracy nor the performance of minimum-variance portfolios. In contrast, switching from the sample …
A Stochastic Variance Factor Model for Large Datasets and an Application to S&P Data
2008
The aim of this paper is to consider multivariate stochastic volatility models for large dimensional datasets. We suggest the use of the principal component methodology of Stock and Watson [Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 2002. Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indices. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 147–162] for the stochastic volatility factor model discussed by Harvey, Ruiz, and Shephard [Harvey, A.C., Ruiz, E., Shephard, N., 1994. Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models. Review of Economic Studies, 61, 247–264]. We provide theoretical and Monte Carlo results on this method and apply it to S&P data.
Is the environmental performance of industrialized countries converging? A ‘SURE’ approach to testing for convergence
2008
In this paper, we test for convergence in the environmental performance of a sample of OECD countries, with data ranging from 1971 to 2002. First, we use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to compute two environmental performance indicators (EPIs) in the production theory framework. Second, we propose the use of a sequential multivariate approach to test for convergence in environmental performance. These tests allow us to reconcile the time series literature with the cross-sectional dimension, which is basic when testing for convergence in regional blocs. The SURE technique is used, which allows for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean revers…
Clustering and Polarization in the Distribution of Output: A Multivariate Perspective.
2013
Abstract Modeling the cross-country distribution of per capita income using mixture analysis provides a natural platform for the detection of clubs of countries. Unfortunately, these mixture methods, when based on a strictly univariate approach are limiting towards one’s ability to learn about the underlying process of the emergence of what constitutes a club. This paper takes a fresh look at the constitution of the emerging clubs in the distribution of cross-country output using bivariate and multivariate mixture analysis. Our results suggest that clubs are also forming in the main Solowian determinants of economic growth.