Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
A framework for assessing frequency domain causality in physiological time series with instantaneous effects.
2013
We present an approach for the quantification of directional relations in multiple time series exhibiting significant zero-lag interactions. To overcome the limitations of the traditional multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) modelling of multiple series, we introduce an extended MVAR (eMVAR) framework allowing either exclusive consideration of time-lagged effects according to the classic notion of Granger causality, or consideration of combined instantaneous and lagged effects according to an extended causality definition. The spectral representation of the eMVAR model is exploited to derive novel frequency domain causality measures that generalize to the case of instantaneous effects the kno…
Extending the spectral decomposition of Granger causality to include instantaneous influences: application to the control mechanisms of heart rate va…
2021
Assessing Granger causality (GC) intended as the influence, in terms of reduction of variance of surprise, that a driver variable exerts on a given target, requires a suitable treatment of ‘instantaneous’ effects, i.e. influences due to interactions whose time scale is much faster than the time resolution of the measurements, due to unobserved confounders or insufficient sampling rate that cannot be increased because the mechanism of generation of the variable is inherently slow (e.g. the heartbeat). We exploit a recently proposed framework for the estimation of causal influences in the spectral domain and include instantaneous interactions in the modelling, thus obtaining (i) a novel index…
The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling
2021
In this paper, we test whether the short-run econometric conditions for the basic assumptions of the Ohlson valuation model hold, and then we relate these results with the fulfillment of the short-run econometric conditions for this model to be effective. Better future modeling motivated us to analyze to what extent the assumptions involved in this seminal model are not good enough approximations to solve the firm valuation problem, causing poor model performance. The model is based on the well-known dividend discount model and the residual income valuation model, and it adds a linear information model, which is a time series model by nature. Therefore, we adopt the time series approach. In…
Inventory record inaccuracy in supply chains: the role of workers' behavior
2014
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of inventory record inaccuracy due to behavioral aspects of workers on the order and inventory variance amplification. Design/methodology/approach – The authors adopt a continuous-time analytical approach to describe the effect of inbound throughput on the inventory and order variance amplification due to the workload pressure and arousal of workers. The model is numerically solved through simulation and results are analyzed with statistical general linear model. Findings – Inventory management policies that usually dampen variance amplification are not effective when inaccuracy is generated due to workers’ behavioral aspects. Sp…
Model averaging estimation of generalized linear models with imputed covariates
2015
a b s t r a c t We address the problem of estimating generalized linear models when some covariate values are missing but imputations are available to fill-in the missing values. This situation generates a bias-precision trade- off in the estimation of the model parameters. Extending the generalized missing-indicator method proposed by Dardanoni et al. (2011) for linear regression, we handle this trade-off as a problem of model uncertainty using Bayesian averaging of classical maximum likelihood estimators (BAML). We also propose a block model averaging strategy that incorporates information on the missing-data patterns and is computationally simple. An empirical application illustrates our…
Evaluation of Roundabout Safety Performance through Surrogate Safety Measures from Microsimulation
2018
The paper presents a microsimulation-based approach for roundabout safety performance evaluation. Based on a sample of Slovenian roundabouts, the vehicle trajectories exported from AIMSUN and VISSIM were used to estimate traffic conflicts using the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM). AIMSUN and VISSIM were calibrated for single-lane, double-lane and turbo roundabouts using the corresponding empirical capacity function which included critical and follow-up headways estimated through meta-analysis. Based on calibration of the microsimulation models, a crash prediction model from simulated peak hour conflicts for a sample of Slovenian roundabouts was developed. A generalized linear model…
Weighted-average least squares estimation of generalized linear models
2018
The weighted-average least squares (WALS) approach, introduced by Magnus et al. (2010) in the context of Gaussian linear models, has been shown to enjoy important advantages over other strictly Bayesian and strictly frequentist model averaging estimators when accounting for problems of uncertainty in the choice of the regressors. In this paper we extend the WALS approach to deal with uncertainty about the specification of the linear predictor in the wider class of generalized linear models (GLMs). We study the large-sample properties of the WALS estimator for GLMs under a local misspecification framework that allows the development of asymptotic model averaging theory. We also investigate t…
Understanding german fdi in latin america and asia: a comparison of glm estimators
2020
The growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in developing countries over the last decade has attracted an intense academic and policy-oriented interest for its determinants. Despite the gravity model being considered a useful tool to approximate bilateral FDI flows, the literature has seen a growing debate in relation to its econometric specification, so that which is the best estimator for the gravity equation is far from conclusive. This paper examines the determinants of German outward FDI in Latin America and Asia for the period 1996-2012 by evaluating the performance of alternative Generalized Linear Model (GLM) estimators. Our findings indicate that Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum …
Accounting for dispersion and correlation in estimating Safety Performance Functions. An overview starting from a case study
2013
In statistical analysis of crash count data, as well as in estimating Safety Performance Functions (SPFs), the failure of Poisson equidispersion hypothesis and the temporal correlation in annual crash counts must be considered to improve the reliability of estimation of the parameters. After a short discussion on the statistical tools accounting for dispersion and correlation, the paper presents the methodological path followed in estimating a SPF for urban four-leg, signalized intersections. Since the case study exhibited signs of underdispersion, a Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was fitted to the data; then a quasi-Poisson model in the framework of Generalized Estim…
Revealing Hidden Curvilinear Relations Between Work Engagement and Its Predictors: Demonstrating the Added Value of Generalized Additive Model (GAM)
2014
Previous studies measuring different aspects of the quality of life have, as a rule, presumed linear relationships between a dependent variable and its predictors. This article utilizes non-parametric statistical methodology to explore curvilinear relations between work engagement and its main predictors: job demands, job control and social support. Firstly, the study examines what additional information non-linear modeling can reveal regarding the relationship between work engagement and the three predictors in question. Secondly, the article compares the explanatory power of non-linear and linear modeling with regard to work engagement. The generalized additive model (GAM), that makes pos…