Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
Critical success factors that contribute to project success
2009
Masteroppgave i økonomi og administrasjon - Universitetet i Agder 2009 This master thesis explores critical success factors that contribute to project success. A pathway to success is presented with nine success factors that are critical in order to achieve project success for oil and gas projects. The critical success factors that are presented are 1) Reservoir complexity, 2) Appraisal strategy, 3) Reservoir front-end loading, 4) Scope and technology, 5) Team integration, 6) Facility front-end loading, 7) Well front-end loading, 8) Target setting and 9) Project execution discipline. I have chosen to have my main focus on two of these success drivers; target setting and project execution di…
Intervention and peace*
2018
Abstract Intervention often does not lead to peace, but rather to prolonged conflict. Indeed, we document that it is an important source of prolonged conflicts. We introduce a theoretical model of the balance of power to explain why this should be the case and to analyse how peace can be achieved: either a hot peace between hostile neighbours or the peace of the strong dominating the weak. Non-intervention generally leads to peace after defeat of the weak. Hot peace can be achieved with sufficiently strong outside intervention. The latter is thus optimal if the goal of policy is to prevent the strong from dominating the weak.
Presumption of Innocence and Deterrence
2018
This paper deals with the presumption of innocence and the law enforcer's incentives to exert investigative effort. Our main result is that, even if the presumption of guilt maximizes deterrence for a given effort by the law enforcer, divergent objectives between the law enforcer (who maximizes the probability of a conviction weighted by the magnitude of the sanction and the type of the citizen) and the public decision-maker (who minimizes social costs) may lead the latter to prefer the presumption of innocence. Indeed, the presumption of innocence may induce the law enforcer to increase investigative efforts thereby improving deterrence. As a consequence, if the law enforcer's effort is re…
The Other J.M.: John Maurice Clark and the Keynesian Revolution
2009
This paper suggests that Clark's views regarding the Keynesian Revolution illuminate some of the limitations of the Keynesian orthodoxy that developed after the war, bringing more institutional detail and a greater preoccupation with dynamic analysis. Clark developed the multiplier in dynamic terms and coupled it with the accelerator to provide the framework for business cycle theory. His analysis was not formalized and emphasized time lags and non-linearities, similar to Harrod. In addition, Clark was concerned with the inflationary consequences of Keynesian policies and he was dissatisfied with those mechanical interpretations of the income flow analysis, which came to be known as hydraul…
Foreign direct investment attraction in the Baltic States
2014
This paper considers the importance of macroeconomic factors as well as investment climate for foreign direct invest ment attraction in the Baltic states. It reviews some of the indicators for measuring the investment climate and their usefulness as indicators of strength of FDI attraction and uses the results of econometric analysis to consider relative importance of various macroeconomic factors. The results suggest that perceptions of corruption and fiscal policy are some of the more important drivers of FDI attraction. The paper also considers several measures that could improve foreign direct investment attraction in the Baltic States such as expanding the protection of property right…
Sustainability of Pension Systems in the Baltic States
2016
Objective: The objective of the paper is to identify how the concept of sustainability is understood and ensured in the pension systems of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania; and what implications it brings to the performance of pension schemes. Research Design & Methods: Analysis of various conceptual and methodological approaches to the notion of sustainability of pension systems. Comparative analysis of present pension legislation, as well as preceding stage of pension reforms, accompanied by a number of numerical models. Findings: The understanding of sustainability is limited by narrow ‘fiscal’ meaning in Latvia, compared to more a multifaceted concept that includes the principle of socia…
The World Bank’s Early Reflections on Development: A Development Institution or a Bank?
2009
Until the late 1960s, the World Bank presented itself as an institution devoted to making sound and directly productive project loans. Yet, during its very early years, some discussions developed inside the Bank regarding the possibility of issuing different types of loans, namely (i) loans aimed at tackling social issues ("social loans"), and (ii) loans aimed at providing foreigncurrency to address disequilibria in the balance of payments ("impact loans"). This paper brings together historical analysis and theories of organization development to study the housing issue as a case in point. The analysis reveals that the Bank was unwilling to lend for housing programs not because these were n…
Robots, labor markets, and universal basic income
2020
Automation is a big concern in modern societies in view of its widespread impact on many socioeconomic issues including income, jobs, and productivity. While previous studies have concentrated on determining the effects on jobs and salaries, our aim is to understand how automation affects productivity, and how some policies, such as taxes on robots or universal basic income, moderate or aggravate those effects. To this end, we have designed an experiment where workers make productive effort decisions, and managers can choose between workers and robots to do these tasks. In our baseline treatment, we measure the effort made by workers who may be replaced by robots, and also elicit firm repla…
Autonomous Operation of Stationary Battery Energy Storage Systems—Optimal Storage Design and Economic Potential
2021
Global warming requires a changeover from fossil fuel based to renewable energy sources on the electrical supply side and electrification of the demand side. Due to the transient nature of renewables and fluctuating demand, buffer capacities are necessary to compensate for supply/demand imbalances. Battery energy storage systems are promising. However, the initial costs are high. Repurposing electric vehicle batteries can reduce initial costs. Further, storage design optimization could significantly improve costs. Therefore, a battery control algorithm was developed, and a simulation study was performed to identify the optimal storage design and its economic potential. The algorithm used is…
Rejection odds and rejection ratios: A proposal for statistical practice in testing hypotheses
2016
Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the p-value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations -- even the full Baye…