Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
Instruments, rules, and household debt: the effects of fiscal policy
2015
In this paper, we look at the interplay between the level of household leverage in the economy and fiscal policy, the latter characterised by different combinations of instruments and rules. When the fiscal rule is defined on lump-sum transfers, government spending or consumption taxes, the impact multipliers of transitory fiscal shocks become substantially amplified in an environment of easy access to credit by impatient consumers, regardless of the primary instruments used. However, when the government reacts to debt deviations by raising distortionary taxes on income, labour or capital, the effects of household debt on the size of the impact output multipliers vanish or even reverse, no …
Testing for Government Intertemporal Solvency: A Smooth Transition Error Correction Model Approach
2001
Applied macroeconomists have tested for the government intertemporal solvency condition by either testing for linear stationarity in the total government deficit series or testing for linear cointegration between total government spending and total tax revenues. A number of authors have focused, in particular, on structural breaks in the government deficit process. In this paper, we use a smooth transition error correction model to test and estimate a shift in the adjustment toward a linear cointegration relationship between the government spending to output ratio and the total tax revenues to output ratio. Estimation results show that government authorities react only to large (in absolute…
Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: A New Approach
2009
We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue - responsiveness and persistence - we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal behaviour. Drawing on quarterly data we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method. In this way we track fiscal developments, i.e. possible fiscal deteriorations and/or improvements for eight European Union countries plus the US. Results suggest that positions have not significantly changed for Finland, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and the US,…
Squaring the welfare circle and government ideology: Greece and Spain in the 1990s
1999
This article examines the “squaring the welfare circle” thesis and its usefulness to our understanding of welfare developments in Greece and Spain in the 1990s. The welfare state in both Greece and Spain was expanded considerably in the early 1980s by the newly elected socialist governments, only to hit the buffers of diminishing resources and rising demands in the late 1980s as well as the hostile neo-liberal welfare ideology. The process of welfare expansion was halted in the 1990s, labour market deregulation was encouraged and containment of welfare expenditure became the dominant aim of government policies. This article concentrates on the actual policies of governments in the 1990s rat…
A Stochastic Model for Population and Well-Being Dynamics
2014
This article presents a stochastic dynamic model to study the demographic evolution per sexes and the corresponding well-being of a general human population. The main model variables are population per sexes and well-being. The considered well-being variable is the Gender-Related Development Index (GDI), a United Nations index. The model's objectives are to improve future well-being and to reach a stable population in a country. The application case consists of adapting, validating, and using the model for Spain in the 2000–2006 period. Some instance strategies have been tested in different scenarios for the 2006–2015 period to meet these objectives by calculating the reliability of the res…
A sub-supersolution approach for Neumann boundary value problems with gradient dependence
2020
Abstract Existence and location of solutions to a Neumann problem driven by an nonhomogeneous differential operator and with gradient dependence are established developing a non-variational approach based on an adequate method of sub-supersolution. The abstract theorem is applied to prove the existence of finitely many positive solutions or even infinitely many positive solutions for a class of Neumann problems.
HARVARD MEETS THE CRISIS: THE MONETARY THEORY AND POLICY OF LAUCHLIN B. CURRIE, JACOB VINER, JOHN H. WILLIAMS, AND HARRY D. WHITE
2015
The paper discusses the interpretation of the Great Depression and the policy decision making by four Harvard economists: Lauchlin B. Currie, Jacob Viner, John H. Williams, and Harry D. White. All were eminent scholars in the field of monetary and international economics, and were deeply involved in policy decisions during the New Deal. We will discuss how their Harvard training provided them with a common methodological and analytical perspective, and how this common perspective translated into specific policies when they moved from the academia to public service in the US administration. Their interpretation of the causes of the Great Depression and their policy proposals show the eclecti…
Combining Value and Momentum: Evidence from the Nordic Equity Market
2018
This is the first paper that explores Fisher, Shah and Titman’s (2016) average ranking approach for the value and momentum strategy in the Nordic equity market offering an exceptional experimental environment. Our results indicate that in the Nordic stock markets, the value anomaly offered excess returns in the 1993 to 2017 sample period only when small stocks were a part of the portfolio, whereas the momentum effect is strong and significant, irrespective of size. Interestingly, our findings also indicate that the negative correlation between value and momentum (Asness, Moskowitz and Pedersen, 2013) seems to be driven by growth stocks: Winner stocks that are value stocks generated 1.66% pe…
Einsparpotenziale bei Verwaltungs- und Verfahrenskosten durch die Fusion von gewerblichen Berufsgenossenschaften — eine empirische Analyse für Deutsc…
2007
Wir untersuchen die Einsparpotenziale im Bereich der Verwaltungs- und Verfahrenskosten der gewerblichen Unfallversicherung in Deutschland. Als Datengrundlage dienen die Zahlen aus den Geschafts- und Rechnungsergebnissen des HVBG (Hauptverband der gewerblichen Berufsgenossenschaften) der Jahre 1999 bis 2004. Grose Versicherungstrager haben deutlich geringere Verwaltungs- und Verfahrenskosten je Versicherter als kleine. Jedoch sind die grosen Versicherungstrager auch diejenigen, die bessere Risiken versichern und damit moglicherweise alleine aufgrund der Risikokomposition billiger. Daher ist zunachst unklar ob Grose alleine oder das geringere Risiko die geringeren Kosten der grosen Berufsgeno…
Varianz- und kovarianzbasierte Strukturgleichungsmodelle — Ein Leitfaden zu deren Spezifikation, Schätzung und Beurteilung
2006
Seit Mitte der 80er Jahre gewinnen Strukturgleichungsmodeile in der betriebswirtschaftlichen Forschung an Bedeutung. Jungste Veroffentlichungen untermauern jedoch deren oftmals falschliche Anwendung bzw. die Fehlkonzeption des uberpruften Modells. Nicht zuletzt erschwert die etablierte, auf kovarianzbasierten Verfahren beruhende Software LISREL die haufig notwendige, jedoch unterlassene Einbindung formativ erfasster Modellkonstrukte. Das varianzbasierte Strukturgleichungsverfahren PLS (partial least squares) weist eine Vielzahl von gunstigen Eigenschaften gegenuber kovarianzbasierten Verfahren auf, so auch die problemlose Einbindung formativ erhobener latenter Variablen. Das Hauptargument d…