Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
Financialisation, regional economic development and the coronavirus crisis: a time for spatial monetary policy?
2021
Abstract This paper argues that ‘spatial monetary policy’ may be needed to achieve more territorially balanced economic development. Central banks have been key in fostering financialised economies while also preventing their collapse in times of crisis—a role further strengthened by the coronavirus pandemic. Central banks have thus become the most powerful economic policy-making institutions, just when spatial disparities are likely to deepen. In the context of crisis-ridden financialised capitalism, regional development policies should consider the spatial implications of central bank interventions and recognise monetary policy as a key element of spatial policy. Simultaneously, monetary …
The financial impact of Spanish pension reform: A quick estimate
2012
In this paper, we present a preliminary estimate of the financial impact of the recent reform of the Spanish pension system. After updating the projections of pension expenditure constructed in de la Fuente and Doménech (2010) for the period 2008-2060, we analyze the impact on this variable of raising the retirement age from 65 to 67 years, extending from 15 to 25 years the period over which wages are averaged to calculate the starting pension and increasing from 35 to 37 the number of contribution years required to obtain a 'full pension.' Conditional on a series of assumptions about the evolution of employment, productivity and demographics, our estimates suggest that these measures will …
Public capital and productive efficiency in the Spanish regions (1964–89)
1995
The article analyses the evolution of the differences in economic conditions among Spanish regions from the perspective provided by the recent advances made in economic growth empirics. Although convergence is usually established in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA) per capita, in the case of Spain it is of special interest to break it down into three separate elements: activity rate, employment rate, and productivity of labour. Regional differences in unemployment rates, which persist for long periods of time, are identified as a force against convergence. After describing the distinction between conditional and non conditional convergence, the paper considers the role played by the product…
Public capital, productive efficiency and convergence in the Spanish regions (1964-93)
1998
This paper analyses the behaviour of productive efficiency in the Spanish regions for the period 1964–93. From a growth accounting approach, it describes the regional evolution of total factor productivity (TFP'), based on a private inputs production function. A stricter measure of efficiency is then quantified, which is not equivalent to Solow's residual, since public capital is included in the production function and constant returns to scale are not imposed. Finally, on the basis of the measures of total factor productivity and efficiency, the study discusses the existence of technological convergence among Spanish regions and the role played in it by public capital. The renewed interest…
Ethiopia's Growth Acceleration and How to Sustain It—insights from a Cross-Country Regression Model
2015
Ethiopia has experienced a growth acceleration over the past decade on the back of an economic strategy emphasizing public infrastructure investment and supported by heterodox macro-financial policies. To analyze the country’s growth performance during 2000–13, the paper employs a neoclassical cross-country System Generalized Method of Moments regression model. The analysis finds that accelerated growth was driven by public infrastructure investment and restrained government consumption, and supported by a conducive external environment. Macroeconomic challenges arising from declining private credit, real currency overvaluation, and relatively high inflation held back some growth. The model…
INTERNATIONAL AND INTERTEMPORAL COMPARISONS OF REAL PRODUCT IN OECD COUNTRIES A GROWTH SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
1997
This paper provides two new data sets for comparisons of real income in OECD countries. The first set provides adjusted real series for GDP and its components from 1960 to 1993 based on OECD 1990 purchasing power parities. The second set uses OECD PPP of different benchmark years, and interpolates these applying national price indices. Comparisons between both alternatives, Penn World Tahle Mark 5 (PWT 5) and its new version (PWT 5.6), in terms of economic growth and convergence, reveal some remarkable differences. Moreover, there are wider differences concerning the relative countries' position in GDP per capita ranking. Estimations of convergence equations based on OECD data yield a bette…
The effects of budget deficit on national saving in the OECD
2000
Abstract In this paper, we estimate a structural VAR using a panel of OECD countries, which includes national saving and budget deficit, both as the ratio to GDP, to test the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis. In this framework, we separate saving and deficit movements into two types of shocks, associated with structural parameters of these economies. Our results suggest that Ricardian Equivalence did not work in our sample of OECD countries, since private saving compensated only a small fraction budget deficit. This supports the interpretation that the large budget deficits have been a very important factor behind the significant increase in real interest rates in the eighties and early nin…
El patrón oro y el euro. Una reflexión a partir de la lectura de A Tract on Monetary Reform
2017
This paper makes a comparison between the gold standard and the euro through a study of Keynes’s views on the need to manage the macroeconomic situation of an industrial economy. The essay centers on Keynes’s first relevant economic work of the post World War I years, A Tract on Monetary Reform, analyzing its theoretical and practical content. The situation of monetary instability and the choice of exchange regime (to return or not to the gold standard, with the parity prior to the war) were the factors that attracted Keynes’s attention in those years. Similarities between the gold standard and the present euro system bestow a certain interest on Keynes’s ideas and on the economic discussio…
On the Link Between Volatility and Growth
2011
A model of growth with endogenous innovation and distortionary taxes is presented. Since innovation is the only source of volatility, any variable that influences innovation directly affects volatility and growth. This joint endogeneity is illustrated by working out the effects through which economies with different tax levels differ in their volatility and growth process. We obtain analytical measures of macro volatility based on cyclical output and on output growth rates for plausible parametric restrictions. This analysis implies that controls for taxes should be included in the standard growth-volatility regressions. Our estimates show that the conventional Ramey-Ramey coefficient is af…
The Stabilizing Role of Government Size
2007
This paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile economies. Our analysis shows that adding nominal rigidities and costs of capital adjustment to an otherwise standard RBC model can generate a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of output. However, in the model, we find that the stabilizing effect is only due to a composition effect and it is not present when we look at the volatility of private output. Given that empirically we also observe a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of consumption, we modify the model by i…