Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
The Role of Covariance Matrix Forecasting Method in the Performance of Minimum-Variance Portfolios
2014
Providing a more accurate covariance matrix forecast can substantially improve the performance of optimized portfolios. Using out-of-sample tests, in this paper, we evaluate alternative covariance matrix forecasting methods by looking at (1) their forecast accuracy, (2) their ability to track the volatility of the minimum-variance portfolio, and (3) their ability to keep the volatility of the minimum-variance portfolio at a target level. We find large differences between the methods. Our results suggest that shrinkage of the sample covariance matrix improves neither the forecast accuracy nor the performance of minimum-variance portfolios. In contrast, switching from the sample covariance ma…
Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries☆
2020
Abstract The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.
Technical Trading Rules
2017
This chapter reviews the most common trend-following rules that are based on moving averages of prices. It also discusses the principles behind the generation of trading signals in these rules. This chapter also illustrates the limitations of these rules and argues that the moving average trading rules are advantageous only when the trend is strong and long-lasting.
Volatility Weighting over Time in the Presence of Transaction Costs
2019
Numerous empirical studies demonstrate the superiority of dynamic strategies with a volatility-weighting-over-time mechanism. These strategies control the portfolio risk over time by adjusting the risk exposure according to updated volatility forecasts. Yet, to reap all the benefits promised by volatility weighting over time, the composition of the active portfolio must be revised rather frequently. Transaction costs represent a serious obstacle to benefiting from this dynamic risk control technique. In this article, we propose a modified volatility-weighting strategy that allows one to reduce dramatically the amount of trading costs. The empirical evidence shows that the advantages of the …
The Best Hedging Strategy in the Presence of Transaction Costs
2009
Considerable theoretical work has been devoted to the problem of option pricing and hedging with transaction costs. A variety of methods have been suggested and are currently being used for dynamic hedging of options in the presence of transaction costs. However, very little was done on the subject of an empirical comparison of different methods for option hedging with transaction costs. In a few existing studies the different methods are compared by studying their empirical performances in hedging only a plain-vanilla short call option. The reader is tempted to assume that the ranking of the different methods for hedging any kind of option remains the same as that for a vanilla call. The …
European Option Pricing with Transaction Costs and Stochastic Volatility: an Asymptotic Analysis
2015
In this paper the valuation problem of a European call option in presence of both stochastic volatility and transaction costs is considered. In the limit of small transaction costs and fast mean reversion, an asymptotic expression for the option price is obtained. While the dominant term in the expansion it is shown to be the classical Black and Scholes solution, the correction terms appear at $O(\varepsilon^{1/2})$ and $O(\varepsilon)$. The optimal hedging strategy is then explicitly obtained for the Scott's model.
“Rationally Local”: Consumer Participation in Alternative Food Chains
2015
Why are consumers increasingly participating in alternative food chains to co-produce and distribute foods with farmers? In this paper, values and food-related lifestyles, as well as transaction costs and socio-demographics, are used to analyze consumer participation in alternative food chains in Italy. Using a simultaneous system of equations, a model with instrumental variables is implemented to measure the relationships between values and food-related lifestyles, and between the latter and participation in an alternative food chain. Our results show that Italian participants in alternative food chains have the profile of rational shoppers who typically look at price and taste criteria. A…
The introduction of the Euro and its effects on portfolio decisions
2010
Abstract Examining investment behavior related to the Euro introduction, we address the relevance of different investment determinants. With the advent of the currency union two potential sources of portfolio reallocation can be distinguished: First, the diminishment of exchange rate risk and transaction costs within the EMU. Second, the increase of correlation of EMU returns so that diversification benefits decreased. We test for structural breaks in the holdings of German investors and estimate a market model to account for the two effects. A significant decrease in national and an increase in EMU and rest-of-the-world investments can be observed. Comparing the observed holdings with benc…
Regional currencies and regional monetary zones in Latin America: what prospects?
2009
Reducing transaction costs and the need for international reserves is a primary objective to the establishment of regional payment agreements. Another objective, especially in the case of Latin America where the Ecuadorian promoters of the Bank of the South (Banco del Sur) and the New Regional Financial Architecture are planning the implementation of a regional clearing system, is to reduce member countries' dependence on the U. S. dollar as an international standard and reserve currency. To help improve the design of such agreements, this paper refers to the plan Keynes designed for the Bretton Woods conference. First, it observes that cases were made against this plan from which useful le…
Stimulating economic growth in the least developed countries: direct cash transfers for the retired via mobile phones
2013
The result of current aid policies is that only a small percentage of foreign aid reaches the poorest of the poor in the least developed countries. Current trends of urbanisation and self-reliance place elderly people in an increasingly difficult situation. This paper aims to stimulate debate by introducing an alternative mechanism for foreign aid. With the help of an economic model, we demonstrate how direct cash transfers to elderly people can spur economic growth. Targeting all elderly people above a certain age minimises selection costs and removes perverse incentives. The use of new mobile phone technologies reduces transaction costs and makes our proposed modality feasible including i…