Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
Fighting the COVID-19 Crisis: Debt Monétisation and EU Recovery Bonds
2020
AbstractThis paper highlights some peculiar characteristics of the economic crisis induced by the spread of COVID-19. It suggests two intertwined policy measures in order to tackle the emergency phase of the crisis and to support the economy in the subsequent recovery phase. The proposed short-term policy measures offer policy responses in the event of a second wave of coronavirus infections in the coming months. In the aftermath of the emergency phase, the current proposal puts forward the implementation of a massive EU-wide recovery plan addressing the long-lasting technological and environmental challenges of these years, which will be financed by European institutions through the issuan…
Risk Management for Sustainable Sovereign Debt Financing
2021
We model sovereign debt sustainability with optimal financing decisions under macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal uncertainty, with endogenous risk and term premia. Using a coherent risk measure we trade-off debt stock and flow risks subject to sustainability constraints. We optimize static and dynamic financing strategies and demonstrate economically significant savings from optimal financing compared with simple rules and consols, and find that optimizing the trade-offs can be critical for sustainability. The model quantifies minimum refinancing risk and maximum rate of debt reduction that a sovereign can achieve given its economic fundamentals, and an extension identifies optimal timing…
Convex costs and the hedging paradox
2010
Accepted version of an article from the journal:Journal of Corporate Finance. Published version available on Science Direct: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2009.10.002 Financial theory suggests that hedging can increase shareholder value in the presence of capital market imperfections, including direct and indirect costs of financial distress, costly external financing, and convex tax exposure. The influence of these costs, which are high when profits are low and low or negligible when profits are large, on the extent of firm hedging has not been consistently addressed in the finance literature. In Brown and Toft's (2002) model, more convex costs imply that a firm will decrease the ex…
Opacity of young businesses: Evidence from rating disagreements
2008
Abstract A conventional wisdom in the contemporary corporate finance literature argues that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are informationally opaque. We use data from two credit information companies and in particular their disagreements over the creditworthiness of SMEs to study the empirical relevance of this often invoked assumption. Our panel data analysis shows that once unobserved firm-effects are controlled for, the disagreements (i.e., rating splits) are inversely related to the age of firms. We are not able to document such a robust relationship between the disagreements and the size of firms. This finding holds a lesson for empirical corporate finance researchers who n…
Information and hierarchical structure in financial markets
1999
I investigate the information content present in the time series of stock prices of a portfolio of stocks traded in a financial market. By investigating the correlation coefficient between pairs of stocks I provide a working definition of a generalized distance between the stocks of the portfolio. This generalized distance is used to obtain an ultrametric distance matrix between the stocks. The ultrametric structure of the portfolio investigated has associated a taxonomy which is meaningful from an economic point of view.
Evolution of Worldwide Stock Markets, Correlation Structure and Correlation Based Graphs
2011
We investigate the daily correlation present among market indices of stock exchanges located all over the world in the time period Jan 1996 - Jul 2009. We discover that the correlation among market indices presents both a fast and a slow dynamics. The slow dynamics reflects the development and consolidation of globalization. The fast dynamics is associated with critical events that originate in a specific country or region of the world and rapidly affect the global system. We provide evidence that the short term timescale of correlation among market indices is less than 3 trading months (about 60 trading days). The average values of the non diagonal elements of the correlation matrix, corre…
Finite Sample Sizes of the GRS Test in the Presence of Dynamic Correlation and Conditional Heteroskedasticity
2017
This paper investigates the finite sample properties of the widely-used Gibbons, Ross, Shanken (1989) (GRS) test in the presence of both conditional correlation and conditional heteroskedasticity. It finds that the GRS test exhibits serious size distortions resulting in potentially misleading statistical inferences. The correct critical values, as reported in the study, are considerably larger than suggested by the GRS test.
Taxonomic flux as a measure of evolutionary turnover
2021
We introduce a new metric, "taxonomic flux", to quantify evolutionary trends both within and across taxonomic boundaries. This metric is normalized, which reduces the effect of sample size disparity between biologic groups and time intervals. Furthermore, this methodology considers stratigraphic range data as a whole, and measures relative growth or decline of diversity values as they deviate from system stability. Such trends may yield key information relating to evolutionary processes and forcing functions, especially if these trends are correlative within particular taxa or niche occupancy. Thus far, scientists and researchers have been stymied by absolute values derived from unequal dat…
Incentive systems for risky investment decisions under unknown preferences
2017
Abstract Our paper examines how to design incentive systems for managers making multi-period risky investment decisions. We show how compensation functions and performance measures must be designed to ensure that managers implement the expected value-maximizing set of projects. The Relative Benefit Cost Allocation (RBCA) Scheme 1 and its extensions revealed in literature on unknown time preferences generally fail to do so under unknown time and risk preferences. We illustrate that when coping with such unknown preferences in a risky setting, a specific state-dependent allocation rule is required. We introduce such an allocation scheme, which we refer to as the State-Contingent RBCA Scheme, …
Illegal fishing in Isla del Coco National Park: Spatial-temporal distribution and the economic trade-offs
2020
Abstract The Isla del Coco National Park, located on the Pacific coast of Costa Rica, is rich in biodiversity and has a high concentration of pelagic species. This high marine biodiversity makes the Isla del Coco National Park (PNIC) a very attractive place for illegal fishers. We analyzed a dataset covering 8 years (2003–2010) of patrol records from PNIC with the aim of determining, a) the spatial-temporal distribution of illegal fishing, b) other areas that could be prone to illegal fishing but are currently undetected, c) the most profitable areas for this activity and d) the economic trade-offs of this illegal activity in relation to potential gains and the costs. Residuals Autocovariat…