Search results for "Econometric"
showing 10 items of 3780 documents
Nonlinear economic growth: Some theory and cross-country evidence
2007
Abstract This paper aims to test the existence of different growth regimes, that is of different relationships between growth rate and income level. We propose a simple nonlinear growth model and test its empirical implications by estimating Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels. We show that growth is indeed nonlinear: a first phase of slow or zero growth is followed by a take-off and, finally, by a phase of deceleration. We discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the issue of convergence and reversibility of development, in the light of models of structural change and technological diffusion.
On the severity of economic downturns: Lessons from cross-country evidence
2012
Abstract We measure the severity of recessions as a function of their amplitude and duration. Within a quantile regression framework, we assess what causes economic downturns to be more or less severe. We find that the most severe downturns have striking similarities regarding cumulated domestic credit and large current account deficits.
Crypto market responses to digital asset policies
2023
We construct daily databases of crypto bans and policy statements concerning central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to estimate their effect on crypto trading volumes for an unbalanced panel of 116 countries from November 2016 to December 2021. We find that trading volume falls by up to 55% in the week after the announcement of a ban, and by up to 25% after a CBDC-supportive speech by senior central bank officials. For the strictest bans, this reduction persists over the subsequent quarter, driven by a reduction in trading by institutional investors. The results suggest that crypto market participants pay significant attention to government policy on digital assets.(c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. A…
Weak efficiency of the cryptocurrency market: a market portfolio approach
2019
ABSTRACTCryptocurrencies have attracted the attention of many investors and policymakers given the increase in popularity of Bitcoin. In this context, we analyse the cryptocurrency market by means ...
Speculation and lottery-like demand in cryptocurrency markets
2021
Abstract This is the first paper that explores lottery-like demand in cryptocurrency markets. Since recent research provides evidence that cryptocurrency returns appear to be short-memory processes, we modify Bali, Cakici and Whitelaw’s (2011) and Bali, Brown, Murray, and Tang’s (2017) MAX measure and employ a weekly forecast horizon and daily log-returns from the previous week to calculate the metric for our portfolio sorts. From an econometric point of view, this study proposes statistical tests that are robust to unknown dynamic dependency structures in the cryptocurrency data. Our results show that average raw and risk-adjusted return differences between cryptocurrencies in the lowest a…
Substituting a substitute currency
2008
Abstract This study evaluates the dynamics between the dollar and euro balances in the Estonian economy. The focus is to apply the traditional currency substitution model to the substitution of the substitute currency, the dollar and euro-related foreign currency balances. We find substitution between the dollar and the euro to be asymmetric in the short run. Inertia, irreversibility and ratchet effects favoured the use of the euro as a substitute currency. No significant evidence of asymmetries in the long run was detected. However, in general, a traditional model for currency substitution was capable of explaining the dynamics of the euro and the dollar as substitute foreign currencies.
Differentiated Integration and Disintegration in the EU after Brexit : Risks versus Opportunities
2019
Differentiation is becoming an increasingly salient feature of European integration. The multi‐faceted European crisis and the subsequent Brexit vote (paving the way for a ground‐breaking case of differentiated disintegration) have led scholars and practitioners to think about the consequences of differentiated integration. This article draws on five well‐established models of differentiation experienced by countries both inside and outside the Union: the EEA model; the Danish model of (quasi‐)permanent differentiation; the Swedish model of de facto differentiation; the instrumental model; and the British model of differentiated disintegration. It addresses the different risks and opportuni…
Finding socially responsible portfolios close to conventional ones
2015
Abstract An increasing number of investors are interested in sustainable, responsible and impact investment (SRI). However, there is a concern about the possible financial sacrifice associated to this kind of investments. The design of Decision Support Systems assisting socially responsible investors in their investment decisions can contribute to stimulate SRI. In this paper the financial content of a portfolio selection model is discussed in order to justify that it can be integrated into a Decision Support System designed for investors interested in socially responsible investment but initially reluctant to pay a financial cost in exchange for increasing the social responsibility of thei…
A multiple criteria decision model for analyzing and choosing among different development patterns for the Helsinki cargo harbor
1999
Abstract This paper describes a real application of a multicriteria approach to choosing among different options for developing the Helsinki harbor. In addition to the environmental impact assessment procedure, an analysis of the alternatives using the SMAA-method (Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis) is carried out. The method applied here has been developed for situations in which the use of decision-makers’ preference information is not possible. Instead, the problem is described by typical weight vectors leading to each solution, taking into account the evident uncertainty embedded in the criteria values.
The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest
2020
Abstract This paper analyses the role of peaceful and violent protest in the democratization process. We interpret the democratization process as a sequence of phases so as to allow citizens' and elites' preferences for democracy to vary according to the particular phase that a country is experiencing. By doing so we jointly model the probability of protest and of moving through different phases of democracy taking into account time-constant and time-varying unobserved heterogeneity. In particular, we develop a multivariate finite mixture model that introduces a latent variable to capture unobservable factors. On a sample of 171 countries from 1971 to 2010, we provide evidence that protest …