Search results for "Economic indicator"

Valsts ekonomiskās drošības indikatoru prognozēšanas matemātiskais modelis

2006

Eco-sustainable energy and environmental strategies in design for recycling: the software “ENDLESS”

2003

Abstract This paper describes a model, named “ENDLESS”, useful to address the design process towards more eco-compatible solutions. In particular, this tool can support the designer in the choice of the product with an higher recyclability potential from a set of different alternatives. The model takes into consideration a Multi-Attribute Decision-Making method and allows calculating a “Global Recycling Index” (GRI) starting from a set of energy, environmental, technical and economic indicators. A weight is assigned to each parameter following the experience of the designer; a sensitivity analysis is then performed to state how the different assumptions can affect the final results. The mod…

Validation of the group nuclear safety climate questionnaire.

2013

Abstract Introduction Group safety climate is a leading indicator of safety performance in high reliability organizations. Zohar and Luria (2005) developed a Group Safety Climate scale (ZGSC) and found it to have a single factor. Method The ZGSC scale was used as a basis in this study with the researchers rewording almost half of the items on this scale, changing the referents from the leader to the group, and trying to validate a two-factor scale. The sample was composed of 566 employees in 50 groups from a Spanish nuclear power plant. Item analysis, reliability, correlations, aggregation indexes and CFA were performed. Results Results revealed that the construct was shared by each unit, a…

Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models

2014

In short-term forecasting, it is essential to take into account all available information on the current state of the economic activity. Yet, the fact that various time series are sampled at different frequencies prevents an efficient use of available data. In this respect, the Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) model has proved to outperform existing tools by combining data series of different frequencies. However, major issues remain regarding the choice of explanatory variables. The paper first addresses this point by developing MIDAS based dimension reduction techniques and by introducing two novel approaches based on either a method of penalized variable selection or Bayesian stochastic searc…

The Media and Public Agendas: Testing for Media Effects in Argentina During 2003-2008

2009

In this paper we examine the presence of agenda-setting effects by the print media in Argentina from June 2003 to December 2008. Using previously unavailable monthly data on newspapers mentions we test two hypotheses about the relationship between the different agendas. We find support for the hypothesis that there were media effects during our period of analyisis. More specifically, we find that the total number of newspaper mentions of the President positively influenced public confidence in the government. Finally, there is also evidence of a strong and stable relationship between the total number of economic news and leading economic indicators.

Screening Investments to Reduce the Risk of Hydrologic Failures in the Headwork System Supplying Apulia (Italy) – Role of Economic Evaluation and Ope…

2014

The paper introduces and applies a methodology to screen investments aimed at reducing water supply risks due to hydrologic failures in headwork systems for municipal use, based on the principles of cost-benefit analysis. As risk includes both the probability of a failure and its effect, the methodology combines a simulation module of the system, fed by a stochastic hydrologic input to reproduce the probability distribution of the failures, with a metric for supply failure damage provided by the price – demand relationship for municipal water. Benefits are assessed as the averted damage compared to a base case without investments. This approach is then combined with the classic discounted c…

New perspectives on old inequalities: Italy’s north–south divide

2020

Italy’s regional inequalities are more substantial and persistent than any other European country. They pertain to fundamental economic indicators (income, productivity, employment) and to many relevant features of the socio-institutional environment (the quality of institutions, education attainments, government and bureaucratic efficiency, etc.). The 2008–13 crisis further exacerbated divergences, with a collapse of capital accumulation and unwelcome demographic shocks (brain drains, migrations, etc.). This paper contributes to this rich literature with a specific focus on the increase of ‘within-south inequalities’ and investigates some socioeconomic determinants and processes that can e…

Is the EUA a new asset class?

2022

The listing of a new asset requires knowledge of its statistical properties prior to its use for hedging, speculative or risk management purposes. In this paper, the authors study the stylised facts of European Union Allowances (EUAs) returns. The majority of the phenomena observed, such as heavy tails, volatility clustering, asymmetric volatility and the presence of a high number of outliers are similar to those observed in both commodity futures and financial assets. However, properties such as negative asymmetry, positive correlation with stocks indexes and higher volatility levels during the trading session, typical of financial assets, and the existence of inflation hedge and positive …

Anticipating bank distress in the Eurozone: An Extreme Gradient Boosting approach

2019

Abstract The banking sector plays a special role in the economy and has critical functions which are essential for economic stability. Hence, systemic banking crises disrupt financial markets and hinder global economic growth. In this study, Extreme Gradient Boosting, a state of the art machine learning method, is applied to identify a set of key leading indicators that may help predict and prevent bank failure in the Eurozone banking sector. The cross-sectional data used in this study consists of 25 annual financial ratio series for commercial banks in the Eurozone. The sample includes Eurozone listed failed and non-failed banks for the period 2006–2016. A number of early warning systems a…

A Self-Adapting Approach for Forecast-Less Scheduling of Electrical Energy Storage Systems in a Liberalized Energy Market

2013

In this paper, an original scheduling approach for optimal dispatch of electrical Energy Storage Systems (ESS) in modern distribution networks is proposed. The control system is based on fuzzy rules and does not use forecasts since it repairs the past history according to the real time data on the electrical energy cost, renewable energy production and load. When the system detects a worsening of performances, the fuzzy logic rule-based control system self-adapts its membership functions using an economic indicator. The common use, in the relevant literature, of forecasted values in such systems can lead to large errors and economic losses. Moreover the speed of calculation guaranteed by th…