Search results for "Economica"
showing 10 items of 487 documents
COVID‐19 and tourism: What can we learn from the past?
2020
Abstract The impact of the COVID‐19 crisis on tourism flows is without precedent in terms of speed and severity. In this paper, we try to infer a possible future scenario for the tourism sector, evaluating the medium‐term effects of past pandemics on tourist arrivals. We find that pandemics lead to a persistent decline in tourist arrivals, with the effects being larger in developing and emerging countries. Interestingly, the effects are heterogeneous across countries and episodes, and depend on several economic conditions such as the overall health system performance, the severity of the shock, and the uncertainty induced by the pandemic event.
Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications
2009
This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It finds that 1) most recent housing booms have been very persistent and of a significant magnitude; 2) there appears to be a strong correlation between the persistence and magnitude of booms and subsequent busts; 3) economic costs (in terms of GDP losses during the post-boom phase) depend significantly on the magnitude and duration of the boom and money and credit developments during that period; 4) a numb…
School grading and institutional contexts
2011
We study how the relationship between students' cognitive ability and their school grades depends on institutional contexts. In a simple abstract model, we show that unless competence standards are set at above-school level or the variation of competence across schools is low, students' competence valuation will be heterogeneous, with weaker schools inflating grades or flattening their dependence on competence, therefore reducing the information content and comparability of school grades. Using data from the OECD-PISA 2003 Survey, the model is applied to a sample of four countries, namely Australia, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. We find that in Australia, schools' heterogeneity does …
Sovereign Credit Ratings and Financial Markets Linkages: Application to European Data
2012
We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements. Announcements are not anticipated at 1–2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1–2 weeks; spillover effects especially among EMU countries and from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countrie…
On the severity of economic downturns: Lessons from cross-country evidence
2012
Abstract We measure the severity of recessions as a function of their amplitude and duration. Within a quantile regression framework, we assess what causes economic downturns to be more or less severe. We find that the most severe downturns have striking similarities regarding cumulated domestic credit and large current account deficits.
Selection bias, incentivi alle imprese e sviluppo locale: Una valutazione ex-post
2015
Questo lavoro si concentra sulla valutazione di un programma di aiuti alle imprese facente parte di un piu vasto programma per lo sviluppo locale realizzato in Italia durante il ciclo di programmazione comunitaria 2000-2006. Esso costituisce un approfondimento di una precedente analisi (Cusimano, Mazzola, 2014) di valutazione ex-post degli effetti dei regimi di aiuto previsti nell’ambito dei progetti integrati territoriali (pit), e mira ad identificare l’eventuale presenza di distorsione da selezione (selection bias) nella quantificazione dell’efficacia della politica. Mediante un’analisi empirica effettuata per mezzo di diverse metodologie basate sul propensity score matching (psm) viene m…
Voters’ preferences and electoral systems: the EuroVotePlus experiment in Italy
2016
Motivated by the need to understand voting behaviour under different electoral rules, Laslier et al. (Eur Union Polit, 16(4):601–615, 2015) have conducted an online experiment, the EuroVotePlus experiment, focusing on the effects of the different rules adopted to elect members of the European parliament on voters’ behaviour. The experiment took place in several European countries in the 3 weeks before the 2014 elections for the European Parliament. This paper focuses on the Italian data. Firstly, we show that the behaviour of Italian respondents is consistent with the empirical findings at the European level. Then, we exploit the change from open list to closed list elections implemented in…
Human capital in Spain and its distribution by provinces (1964-2013)
2015
The regularly-updated database “Human capital in Spain and its distribution by provinces” provides information about the accumulation of human capital in Spain over the last five decades. The human capital estimates included in this database contain a wide range of information on how education levels in Spain have evolved, classified according to the level of studies completed and other human capital indicators. The database includes information that has been updated until the second trimester of 2013. It can be accessed at http://www.ivie.es/en/banco/caphum/series.php.
The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re-Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets
2018
We use a novel continuous-time Weibull model (without and) with a change-point in the duration dependence parameter to investigate the duration of the exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets. Relying on annual data for a large panel of countries over the period 1970-2011, we find that, as the reputation of debtor countries as good (bad) borrowers solidifies over time, those episodes are more likely to end - i.e. the "legacy of time". Debtor countries can take advantage of the "benefit of doubt" of creditors during short exit spells. However, when exits are long and the reputation as a bad borrower emerges, no more "complacency" makes it more difficult for them to bo…
Albert O. Hirschman, Europe, and the Postwar Economic Order, 1946–52
2022
Abstract Between 1946 and 1952, Albert Hirschman worked as an economist in charge of the Western European desk of the research branch of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, DC. In this position he wrote extensively on patterns of European postwar reconstruction and the creation of a new world economic order. Given his deep knowledge and prewar experiences, Italy and France were his first areas of specialization, although Hirschman soon contributed to the analysis of the Marshall Plan, the shaping of the European Payments Union, and the problem of the dollar shortage. This article provides a comprehensive interpretation of this early stage of Hirschman's intel…