Search results for "Electricity price"
showing 10 items of 12 documents
Pricing of electricity futures based on locational price differences : The case of Finland
2018
We find that the pricing of Finnish electricity market futures has been inefficient during the latest 10 years, when the trading volumes of Electricity Price Area Differentials (EPADs) have more than doubled. Even though the calculated futures premium on EPADs is related to some risk measures and the variables capturing the demand and supply conditions in the spot electricity markets, there has been a significant positive excess futures premium in the Finnish market, and financial market participants should have been able to utilize this also in economic terms. This finding is new and relevant for the participants of the Nordic electricity markets also in the future, because both the specul…
Evaluation of the Administrative Phase-Out of Coal Power Plants on the Italian Electricity Market
2020
Although decarbonisation is one of the most important macro-trends of this century, electricity generation from coal power plants is still broadly common. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of a premature coal power plants phase-out on the Italian day-ahead electricity market. For this purpose, two electricity price forecasts, related to different scenarios between 2019 and 2030, and two different hypotheses for the creation of electricity spot price, were compared. The results from the different scenarios show that coal power plants phase-out determines a small variation in electricity price when bid-up is not considered
A Simple Operating Strategy of Small-Scale Battery Energy Storages for Energy Arbitrage under Dynamic Pricing Tariffs
2015
Price arbitrage involves taking advantage of an electricity price difference, storing electricity during low-prices times, and selling it back to the grid during high-prices periods. This strategy can be exploited by customers in presence of dynamic pricing schemes, such as hourly electricity prices, where the customer electricity cost may vary at any hour of day, and power consumption can be managed in a more flexible and economical manner, taking advantage of the price differential. Instead of modifying their energy consumption, customers can install storage systems to reduce their electricity bill, shifting the energy consumption from on-peak to off-peak hours. This paper develops a deta…
Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool
2007
This paper analyses the forecasting power of weekly futures prices at Nord Pool. The forecasting power of futures prices is compared to an ARIMAX model of the spot price. The time series model contains lagged external variables such as: temperature, precipitation, reservoir levels and the basis (futures price less the spot price); and generally reflects the typical seasonal patterns in weekly spot prices. Results show that the time series model forecasts significantly beat futures prices when using the Diebold and Mariano (1995) test. Furthermore, the average forecasting error of futures prices reveals that they are significantly above the settlement spot price at the ‘delivery week’ and th…
Multi-step ahead electricity price forecasting using a hybrid model based on two-layer decomposition technique and BP neural network optimized by fir…
2017
In the deregulated competitive electricity market, the price which reflects the relationship between electricity supply and demand is one of the most important elements, making it crucial for all market participants to precisely forecast the electricity price. However, electricity price series usually has complex features such as non-linearity, non-stationarity and volatility, which makes the price forecasting turn out to be very difficult. In order to improve the accuracy of electricity price forecasting, this paper first proposes a two-layer decomposition technique and then develops a hybrid model based on fast ensemble empirical mode decomposition (FEEMD), variational mode decomposition …
Technical and economical assessment of distributed electrochemical storages for load shifting applications: An Italian case study
2016
Time-of-use (TOU) energy cost management involves the use of energy storage systems (ESSs) by customers to reduce their electricity bills. The ESS is charged during off-peak time periods, when electricity energy prices are low, and discharged during times when on-peak energy prices are applied. This article addresses the question whether it is economically viable to install medium-scale distributed ESSs designed to lower the electricity cost for a customer-side application, assuming flexible electricity tariffs. The technical/economical evaluation is carried out referring to lithium-ion (Li-ion), sodium sulfur (NaS) and vanadium redox battery (VRB) technologies, performing a parametric anal…
A Novel Operating Strategy for Customer-Side Energy Storages in Presence of Dynamic Electricity Prices
2015
In the wholesale energy market, electricity prices are determined by the balance between supply and demand. Normally, customers are not exposed to these variations but pay a constant electricity price. In an attempt to reduce demand peaks, several utilities are moving from a conventional fixed-rate pricing scheme to a new market-based model, based on time-of-use or real-time pricing, able to closely reflect the wholesale energy price. Electricity customers can thus take profit from the installation of storage systems, shifting their energy consumption from on-peak to off-peak periods. This paper presents a novel charging strategy to manage customer storage systems in presence of hourly elec…
Using simulation to analize wind power penetration: the case of North and Northeast Region
2017
Brazil is rich in renewable sources that can be used for energy generation. The renewable source of energy generation predominantly in Brazil is hydropower. However, the availability of hydropower depends on the useful volume reserves, which is subject to rainfall. Consequently, wind power is a renewable source that is being integrated into the electricity-interconnected system in Brazil. The growth of wind power generation depends on the financial resources and the delays in transmission projects. Despite the Brazilian incentives policy in wind power, the insufficient of transmission infrastructure affects to electricity price in electricity market. This paper addresses the effects of the …
Using simulation to Analyze wind power penetration: The case of North and Northeast Brazil
2016
Brazil is rich in renewable sources that can be used for energy generation. The renewable source of energy generation predominantly in Brazil is hydropower. However, the availability of hydropower depends on the useful volume reserves, which is subject to rainfall. Consequently, wind power is a renewable source that is being integrated into the electricity-interconnected system in Brazil. The growth of wind power generation depends on the financial resources and the delays in transmission projects. Despite the Brazilian incentives policy in wind power, the insufficient of transmission infrastructure affects to electricity price in electricity market. This paper addresses the effects of the …
A simple operation strategy of battery storage systems under dynamic electricity pricing: An Italian case study for a medium-scale public facility
2014
In the electricity market, wholesale energy prices depend on the balance between energy production and load demand. In the last few years, electricity market has become more and more flexible as many utilities have started to replace the fixed retail prices schemes with prices changing during the day. Dynamic pricing, also known as Real-Time Pricing (RTP), reflects the trend of the wholesale market and allows to reduce the volatility of the wholesale prices, also contributing to a reduction of demand peaks. Electricity customers take advantage of dynamic pricing by shifting their consumption according to the real-time prices or by using Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) to shift electri…