Search results for "Employment"
showing 10 items of 704 documents
Down and out in Italian towns: Measuring the impact of economic downturns on crime
2016
The paper investigates the effect of local economic conditions on crime. The study focuses on Italy’s local labor markets and analyzes the response of crime to the severe slump of 2007-2011. It shows that the downturn led to a significant increase in economic-related offenses that do not require particular criminal skills or tools (namely, thefts).
The shadow price of foreign exchange with minimum wages
2001
Abstract This note derives the shadow price of foreign exchange in a small open economy with minimum wage unemployment under tariffs, quotas and voluntary export restraints. The analysis is conducted in a dual general equilibrium framework with many goods and factors.
The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies
2015
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting ou…
The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD countries
2012
The aim of this paper is to assess the short term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1% of social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage point, which, given the share of social spending to GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to the one of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending in Health and Unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consump…
A reply to "banking crises, labor reforms, and unemployment: A comment"
2015
Aleksynka (2015) points to some important methodological flaws in the labor market indicators data used in Bernal-Verdugo, Furceri and Guillaume (2013) [BFG]. This paper revisits the empirical findings presented in BFG, and shows that the results and conclusions are little affected by these methodological flaws. In particular, we find that: (i) while in countries with more flexible labor markets the impact of banking crises is sharper but short-lived, in countries with more rigid labor markets the effect is initially more subdued but highly persistent; (ii) comprehensive labor market reforms have a positive impact on unemployment, albeit only in the medium term.
Stabilization effects of social spending: Empirical evidence from a panel of OECD countries
2010
Abstract The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of social spending to smooth output shocks and to provide stabilization. The results show that overall social spending is able to smooth about 15 percent of a shock to GDP. Among its sub-categories, social spending devoted to Old Age, Health and Unemployment are those that contribute more to provide smoothing. Moreover, the stabilization effects of social spending are significantly larger in those countries where the size of social spending is higher, and in countries in which social spending is less volatile. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.
Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach
2005
Abstract In this paper we test for hysteresis effects versus the natural rate hypothesis on unemployment rates of new members in the European Union (EU) using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. In addition, we estimate the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) from a univariate perspective. The precision of these NAIRU are investigated by studying two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the estimation of the break points, and the estimation of the autoregressive parameters. The results indicate up to four structural breaks in the NAIRU of transition countries that can be associated with institutional changes from implementing market-oriented …
Short-term modified Phillips curves for the accession countries
2006
This study uses NAIRU short-term measures obtained using univariate methods as a basis to analyse inflation developments in the eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the European Union in 2004 during the transition process. The results point to the role of short-term NAIRU as an attractor and support a shifting natural rate hypothesis for unemployment in these countries.
The Economic Rationale of Fiscal Rules in OCAs: The Stability and Growth Pact and the Excessive Deficit Procedure
2013
This chapter examines the case of different regions within a single country that wish to share a common currency, even though they have divergent trends in unemployment, inflation, wages, non-wage costs and productivity. This situation compares with the case of a group of EU countries, each with its own decentralised national budget, that have established a monetary union and that are facing asymmetric shocks. As such an economic context requires fiscal commitments from national governments, we analyse the economic rationale of setting fiscal rules for a common currency area and the resulting EU institutional frame for the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the Excessive Deficit Procedure …
Systems-dynamic analysis of employment and inequality impacts of low-carbon investments
2016
Abstract This paper provides a macroeconomic framework to evaluate the social and economic consequences generated by a shift of investment to low-carbon options. We introduce into a standard growth framework a modified Lotka–Volterra model for wage and employment determination to address both the long-run dynamics of the economic system in terms of carbon emission and GDP growth and the short-term macroeconomic fluctuations in terms of unemployment and inequality. We use this framework to compare the results of different combinations of three strategies for carbon emissions reductions: improvement in energy efficiency, expansion of the renewable energy sector, and the direct reduction in ca…