Search results for "Exchange"
showing 10 items of 2035 documents
The Reality of African Trade Integration—Challenges of Implementation
2021
In the course of their evolution on the stylized path of economic integration, African RECs face a number of implementation challenges, beginning with a range of typical domestication issues for trade agreements. A fundamental problem is that African regional trade arrangements (RTA) are all based on two GATT/WHO clauses which do not require full internal liberalization. The chapter analyses how RTA implementation on this basis has led to a general logic of exclusions and exemptions in Africa’s trade relations and traces how entrenched empirical practice meant to serve developmental purposes—protection of the weakest economic actors—often caters to vested interests. Inconsistency is aggrava…
Sub‐regional integration in the MENA region and the euro‐mediterranean free trade area
1999
The creation of a new Euro‐Mediterranean region in which to build a shared prosperity area requires existing North‐South economic integration to be complemented by South‐South trade liberalization. Trade links among the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries have remained at a very low level. There is room for greater commercial integration, although the scope for an increase in intra‐regional trade volume is limited. Trade liberalization could lead to a relocation of resources according to comparative advantage and to the growth of intra‐industry trade. However, some economic instruments are required both in order to allay political fears and in order to upgrade transport, communicat…
Travel and Tourism as a Driver of Economic Recovery
2013
Abstract Nowadays countries are trying to overcome the adverse effects of this crisis but have failed to recover their positions due to severe recession and worsening economic conditions. Tourism can be one of the pillars that should be supported by governments around the world as part of the solution to stimulate economic growth. The paper examines the economic impact of tourism industry worldwide and with a focus to Romania. It also advances some solutions for the design of a more effective and efficient policy framework in order to take a proactive stance in tailoring policies and development of the tourism sector.
Is Momentum in Currency Markets Driven by Global Economic Risk?
2015
This article investigates the potential link between momentum in currency returns and global economic risk as measured by currency return dispersion (RD). We find that the spread on zero-cost currency momentum strategies is larger and highly significant in high RD states compared to low RD states. Also, the relation between these momentum payoffs and global economic risk appears to increase linearly in risk. Further tests indicate that the same macroeconomic risk component in currency markets is present in global equity markets. Based on this evidence, we conclude that global economic risk as proxied by RD helps to explain currency momentum profits.
Bilateral De-Jure Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment: A Gravity Analysis
2021
Abstract This paper introduces a novel dataset on bilateral de-jure exchange rate regimes. The new dataset accounts for the fact that officially pegging to one currency is uninformative about the exchange rate regime prevailing vis-a-vis other currencies, and it allows characterizing bilateral exchange rate regimes based on countries’ ex-ante announcements rather than ex-post observations. We use this data to estimate the effect of expected exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI). Starting from a simple model that suggests that announced exchange rate stability enhances bilateral FDI flows, we provide empirical evidence that lends support to this claim: countries that ar…
The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered
2017
Historical data for over hundred years and 14 countries is used to estimate the long-run effect of productivity on the real exchange rate. We find large variations in the productivity effect across four distinct monetary regimes in the sample period. Although the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model is not consistent with these results, we suggest an explanation of the results in terms of contemporary variants of the model that incorporate the terms of trade mechanism. Specifically we argue that changes in trade costs over time may affect the impact of productivity on the real exchange rate over time. We undertake simulations of the modern versions of the Balassa-Samuelson model to show that…
The Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Real Macroeconomic Performance in the CEE Countries
2011
Working Paper Gate 09-34; International audience; This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member States. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.
Short-Run Dynamics of the Trade Balance in the EMU-12 Countries
2016
During the pre-EMU period real effective exchange rate or domestic and foreign GDP per capita growth rate differential Granger-caused aggregate trade balance in most of the EMU-12 countries. However, our data-driven paper provides evidence that during the EMU period neither the growth differentials nor the CPI-based real effective exchange rates have Granger-caused the aggregate trade balances. When we decompose the aggregate trade balances into the intra balances (trade balance vis-a-vis the euro area) and the extra balances (trade balance vis-a-vis the rest of the world), we find that typically the change in the dynamics of the aggregate trade balance resulted from a change in the dynamic…
Risk transmission between Islamic and conventional stock markets: A return and volatility spillover analysis
2017
Abstract This paper contributes to the current debate on the empirical validity of the decoupling hypothesis of the Islamic stock market from its mainstream counterparts by examining return and volatility spillovers across the global Islamic stock market, three main conventional national stock markets (the US, the UK and Japan) and a number of influential macroeconomic and financial variables over the period from July 1996 to June 2016. To that end, the VAR-based spillover index approach based on the generalized VAR framework developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) is applied. The empirical analysis shows strong interactions in return and volatility among the global Islamic stock market, the…
Do Carbon Traders Behave as a Herd?
2017
Abstract This paper shows the existence of herding behavior in the European Carbon Futures Market and studies its possible causes and consequences. This market is characterized by leading the carbon price discovery process and by being highly dominated by professional traders. Both features make it an appropriate environment for the existence of herding. A patterns analysis indicates that the herding level increases in speculative periods, on those days on which the price and size clustering effect is stronger, and with the arrival of carbon-related news. Regarding possible market drivers, we find that herding behavior is positively related with the number of trades, the intraday volatility…