Search results for "F41"
showing 10 items of 13 documents
The effects of competitiveness on trade balance: The case of Southern Europe
2016
AbstractAccording to conventional wisdom, “peripheral” Southern European members of the euro area (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) suffer from a problem of competitiveness. Since their membership of the euro area renders devaluation impossible, adjustment should come through decreasing wages and prices in these countries, which, by improving the trade balance, should lead to a recovery of previous levels of employment and growth. In this paper, the authors estimate trade balance equations for the Southern European countries, both for total trade and for the trade performed with the European Union, taking three alternative measures of the real exchange rate, based on consumption price ind…
The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered
2017
Historical data for over hundred years and 14 countries is used to estimate the long-run effect of productivity on the real exchange rate. We find large variations in the productivity effect across four distinct monetary regimes in the sample period. Although the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model is not consistent with these results, we suggest an explanation of the results in terms of contemporary variants of the model that incorporate the terms of trade mechanism. Specifically we argue that changes in trade costs over time may affect the impact of productivity on the real exchange rate over time. We undertake simulations of the modern versions of the Balassa-Samuelson model to show that…
Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour
2007
In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in eleven industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.
MACROECONOMIC SYNCHRONIZATION BETWEEN G3 COUNTRIES
2002
This paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices, and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the U.S. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates that, in the last four decades, these comovements are clearly significant in all the variables, with the possible exception of short-term interest rates, and they are stronger for long-term interest rates; nevertheless, they are rather unstable over time. Este artículo estudia la existencia de un ciclo económico mundial mediante elexamen de movimientos comunes…
External imbalances from a GVAR perspective
2021
In this paper we study the drivers governing external disequilibria through a Global VAR (GVAR) analysis applied to a group of 24 countries during the period 1972-2017. The GVAR methodology is particularly well suited for our research question. First, it permits to measure the effects of both, domestic and foreign country-specific shocks. Second, it allows to analyze not only the long-run relationships, but also the dynamics through generalized impulse-response functions. Third, it enables to test many hypotheses from a macroeconomic perspective and the existence of spillovers. Our results show evidence of international financial integration in terms of the fulfillment of the real interest …
The Global Side of the Investments-Savings Puzzle
2008
In this paper we re-examine the long standing and puzzling correlation between national savings and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of savings and investment. We also find that the global components in savings and investments commove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.
Emerging Economies Faced With The Downside Of Financial Globalization: Hedges And Way Outs
2009
The underlining assumption of this paper is that developing countries are in a fragile state nowadays. Economically, they have been seriously harmed by the 2008 crisis1 but this is not the end of the story: the future still has pitfalls in which these economies might get trapped, due to their enhanced vulnerability to exogenous shocks generated by financial globalization. Ideologically, the recent events have triggered a serious backlash against capitalism, particularly the Anglo-Saxon template. Getting an insight into the causes and implications of global economic crises is therefore critical for policy-makers in emerging economies. History might be a good adviser in this respect. Lessons …
THE NEW ECONOMY - A 360 DEGREE VIEW
2012
This paper is a review of the literature` mainstream on economic development, political views and the way new economic policies and measures are implemented through formal and informal channels, including here the North American lobby` system. As a solution resulted from this paper there are some forecasted directory views that could lead to a future linear development of the global economy and to a tempered glow in the global account, or between commercial trades of some countries.
ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLES CONVERGENCE IN A SWITCHING REGIME VIEW
2012
In this paper I analyzed the convergence between Romanian and Euro Zone`s business cycles using a Switching approach. Considering the evolution of final consumption expenditure as proxy for the business cycles, the underlying study is calibrated on the second key feature of Burns and Mitchell`s (1946) definition about business cycles, namely the cycles are divided and also treated differently for cases of expansionary and downward regimes. Therefore a cyclical convergence between Romanian and Euro Zone`s business cycles is characterized by synchronization in the occurrence of different regimes (states) and also in the time for which these regimes are standing up. For this purpose, I called …
The Dynamics of Currency Substitution: Evidence from UK Foreign Currency Balances
2006
This study evaluates the magnitude of the permanent and the transitory components of currency substitution in the UK. The results indicate that the permanent component, the ratchet effect, accounted only for a small share while the aggregate temporary component, speculation, whose impact lasts about one month, was responsible for most of the dynamics of UK currency substitution. The findings thus lend support to the view that at worst currency substitution would only cause short-run problems for the UK economy.