Search results for "FINANCIAL ECONOMICS"
showing 10 items of 277 documents
Pricing Sovereign Contingent Convertible Debt
2016
We develop a pricing model for sovereign contingent convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's credit default swap CDS spread. One innovation is the modeling of CDS spread regime switching which is prevalent during crises. Regime switching is modeled as a hidden Markov process and is integrated with a stochastic process of spread levels to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper goes a step further and uses the pricing model in a Longstaff-Schwartz. American option pricing framework to compute state contingent S-CoCo prices at some risk horizon, thus facilitating risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CD…
Systemic Risk in a Structural Model of Bank Default Linkages
2018
Abstract We study a structural model of individual bank defaults across the banking sector; banks are interconnected through their exposure to a common risk factor. The paper introduces a systemic risk measure based on the default frequency in the banking sector; this measure depends non-linearly on the factor's loadings, in contrast to previous systemic risk measures that depend linearly on loadings. We estimate loadings in the U.S. banking system over the course of the last 36 years; we find that they have considerably increased over time and identify four major regimes. Our measure shows that systemic risk became critical in the last of our four regimes, covering the most recent time per…
Cross-autocorrelations in European stock returns
2016
This paper examines lead-lag relationships between monthly index returns from 18 European industries. Several interesting and clear relationships are found that call into question the efficiency of European stock markets. While the Automobiles & Parts sector lags more than half of the other sectors, the Financial Services, Technology, and Telecommunications sectors lead many others. In particular, the leadership of the Technology sector has strengthened in recent years.
Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Models for Dealing with Investor’s Preferences
2017
This chapter provides an overview of the authors’ previous work about dealing with investor’s preferences in the portfolio selection problem. We propose a fuzzy model for dealing with the vagueness of investor preferences on the expected return and the assumed risk, and then we consider several modifications to include additional constraints and goals.
Romanian Equity Investments and Currency Risk: A Euro-Based Perspective
2021
Abstract This paper assesses the benefits and risks of international investments made on the Romanian stock market, from the perspective of euro-based investors. We investigate the contribution of exchange rate volatility to the total risk of these investments over a period of nine years, between January 2011 and December 2019, by using monthly values for the exchange rate between the Romanian leu and Euro and monthly values of the Romanian stock index. Our findings indicate that, on average, Romanian leu depreciated against euro, causing currency losses for the euro-based investor, counterbalanced by the Romanian index mean return, higher than euro countries index mean return during the pe…
L'efficacité des privatisations françaises : une vision dynamique à travers la théorie de la gouvernance
2004
International audience; A reading of the process of privatization through the corporate governance theory leads to propose a model taking into account, on the one hand, the time dimension of the process of privatization, on the other hand, the contextual, organizational, governance and strategic variables which influence this process. After replicating some traditional tests, we test this model on a sample of French privatized firms and on a seven years horizon. The positive effect traditionally attributed to privatizations is not confirmed. The importance of the effect is subordinated to some of the suggested variables.; Une lecture du processus de privatisation à travers la théorie de la …
Multivariate modeling and analysis of regional ocean freight rates
2018
Abstract In this paper, we propose a new multivariate model for the dynamics of regional ocean freight rates. We show that a cointegrated system of regional spot freight rates can be decomposed into a common non-stationary market factor and stationary regional deviations. The resulting integrated CAR process is new to the literature. By interpreting the common market factor as the global arithmetic average of the regional rates, both the market factor and the regional deviations are observable which simplifies the calibration of the model. Moreover, forward contracts on the market factor can be traded in the Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) market. We calibrate the model to historical spot r…
Another "French paradox": explaining why interest rates to microenterprises dit not increase with the change in French usury legislation
2015
Conventional wisdom indicates that the growth of credit may not materialize if credit rates remain capped by usury laws, as had long been the case in France. France therefore abolished usury ceilings on loans to microenterprise in an effort to increase financing for microentrepreneurs. This should have led to an increase in interest rates and increase in microcredit. However, we do not find any increase in interest rates and this is therefore a paradox. The paper provides a brief literature review and the salient features of the legislative changes in France. It follows this up with a presentation of interest rate movements. The discussion of possible explanations of the paradox includes cl…
Estructura de la bolsa española e introducción del mercado de activos derivados sobre el IBEX-35
2001
-Jose.E.Farinos@uv.es -Matilde.Fernandez@uv.es La controversia acerca de si la implantación y negociación de activos derivados afecta a la estabilidad de los respectivos mercados de contado perdura desde hace más de dos décadas. En este trabajo abordamos la problemática anterior desde una nueva perspectiva. Concretamente, analizamos el impacto que sobre la estructura del mercado bursátil ha podido tener la introducción de los mercados de activos derivados sobre el IBEX-35. Para ello, definimos e identificamos la estructura del mercado bursátil para el periodo de estudio, y, a continuación, analizamos el efecto que sobre la misma ha tenido la aparición de los nuevos mercados de derivados. Nu…
The influence of conditional conservatism on ownership dispersion: An international analysis
2013
ABSTRACTWe study the influence of conditional accounting conservatism on domestic investor diversification decisions. We argue that a conservative accounting system that promotes the dissemination of bad news and which constrains managers from engaging in opportunistic activities reduces the need for investors to concentrate their ownership, and consequently helps investors to diversify their investments. Through a country-level analysis we show that increased domestic conditional conservatism and higher domestic diversification opportunities lead to higher levels of domestic ownership diversification. Our results are robust to alternative estimates of conditional conservatism, and indicate…