Search results for "FINANCIAL ECONOMICS"
showing 10 items of 277 documents
Calendar Anomalies in Stock Index Futures
2011
There exist a large and increasing number of papers that describe different calendar anomalies in stock markets. Although empirical evidence suggests that seasonal effects disappeared after the early 1990s, new studies and approaches assert the continuation of some anomalies in stock indexes. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of 188 possible cyclical anomalies in S&P 500, DAX and Nikkei stock index futures contracts from 1991 to 2008. Frictions in futures markets, unlike spot markets frictions, make it feasible to produce economically significant profits from trading rules based on calendar effects. By applying a percentile-t-bootstrap and Monte Carlo methods, our analysis rev…
On the Determinants of the Going Public Decision in Spain
2008
Though the going public decision has been addressed by several theories, empirical research is particularly scarce to European countries. This is the first research in the Spanish market that investigates ex ante and ex post characteristics of IPO firms, using a large database of private held firms that potentially may go public. Some of our results are consistent with previous studies. Our evidence suggests that firms that go public are young firms with large capital expenditures previously to the IPO. However, a firm's need to finance activity is not the main motive to go public, but to achieve the proper conditions to rebalance firm's economic and financial structure. Our results are con…
Information Flows Across Wheat Futures Markets
2015
We study information flows across four wheat futures markets on four continents: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), Euronext/Liffe, and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT). Three main approaches have been applied: cointegration techniques, VAR analysis, and a multiple regression model proposed by Peiro, Quesada, and Uriel (1998) to study information flows among non-synchronous markets. Our results indicate that no long-run links exist among the four markets, that ZCE is by far the most endogenous market, and that Euronext/Liffe is the most exogenous one. Furthermore, the model by Peiro et al. (1998) points to KCBT as the most influential as well as the…
Credit risk and efficiency in the European banking system: A three-stage analysis
2002
Increased competition and the attempts of European banks to increase their presence in other markets may have affected the efficiency and credit risk in the banking system. The first aspect is the incentive in reducing costs in order to gain in competitiveness. The second is associated with their lack of knowledge of such markets and/ or acceptance of a higher risk in order to increase their market share. Despite the importance of these aspects, banking literature has usually analysed the effects of competition on the efficiency of banking systems without considering these aspects. The few studies that attempt to obtain risk adjusted efficiency measures do not consider that part of the risk…
Financial Fragility and Interacting Units: an Exercise
2010
This paper assumes that financial fluctuations are the result of the dynamic interaction between liquidity and solvency conditions of individual financial units. The framework is designed as a heterogeneous agent model which proceeds through discrete time steps within a finite time horizon. The interaction at the microlevel between financial units and the market maker, who is in charge of clearing the market, produces interesting complex dynamics. The model is analyzed by means of numerical simulations and agent-based computational economics (ACE) approach. The behaviour and evolution of financial units are studied for different parameter regimes in order to show the importance of the param…
Corruption, Carry Trades, and the Cross Section of Currency Returns
2017
This is the first paper to explore the effects of perceived corruption on the FX market. It finds that the currencies of countries perceived to suffer from high levels of corruption generate statistically significantly lower returns than the currencies of countries perceived to have low levels of corruption. Moreover, the portfolio spread is highly correlated with NBER recessions and U.S. consumption growth of nondurable goods. Interestingly, stochastic discount factor model analysis reveals that the portfolio spread is useful for pricing the cross section of currency returns, even when controlling for standard FX risk factors.
Convex costs and the hedging paradox
2010
Accepted version of an article from the journal:Journal of Corporate Finance. Published version available on Science Direct: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2009.10.002 Financial theory suggests that hedging can increase shareholder value in the presence of capital market imperfections, including direct and indirect costs of financial distress, costly external financing, and convex tax exposure. The influence of these costs, which are high when profits are low and low or negligible when profits are large, on the extent of firm hedging has not been consistently addressed in the finance literature. In Brown and Toft's (2002) model, more convex costs imply that a firm will decrease the ex…
Portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit swap markets
2018
We develop models for portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) markets and show that, despite literature findings that sovereign CDS spreads are affected by global factors, there is sufficient idiosyncratic risk to be diversified. However, we identify regime switching in the times series of CDS spreads and spread returns, and the optimal diversified strategies can be regime dependent. The developed models trade off the CVaR risk measure against expected return, consistently with the statistical properties of spreads. We consider three investment strategies suited for different CDS market participants: for investors with long positions, speculators that hold unco…
Probabilistic European Country Risk Score Forecasting Using a Diffusion Model
2013
Over the last few years, global crisis has shaken confidence in most European economies. As a consequence, a lack of confidence has spread amongst European countries leading to Europe’s financial instability. Therefore, forecasting the next future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. In this respect, it would be interesting to use tools which allow to predict the trends and evolution of each country’s confidence rating. The Country Risk Score (CRS) represents a good indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political and financial Risk in order to determine country Risk ratings. CRS is underscored by Euromoney Agency and is…
The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies
2010
Working Paper GATE 2009-20; International audience; The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long-term output by about 17 percent. The effect is more important in smaller countries, with relative higher dependence on external financing, and in which the banking sector noticed more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy measures have been the most efficient tools in dealing with the crises, while the role of monetary policy instruments has been rather blinded. Exchange rate resulted to be more …