Search results for "Finance"
showing 10 items of 4676 documents
The euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core?
2014
Abstract We examine the determinants of joint default risk of euro area countries during 2007–2011. To accomplish this, we recover joint default probabilities from individual CDS contracts. In contrast to earlier theoretical studies, we find that financial linkages are an active contagion transmission channel only in the case of the troubled periphery euro area economies. During the current sovereign debt crisis, real economy linkages play a more important role in transmitting shocks from the euro area periphery towards its core. Countries that have stronger trade interconnections with troubled economies tend to have a higher expected joint default risk.
Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective
2014
Abstract This study examines the sensitivity of the Spanish stock market at the industry level to movements in oil prices over the period 1993–2010, paying special attention to the presence of endogenously determined structural changes in the relationship between oil price changes and industry equity returns. The empirical results show that the degree of oil price exposure of Spanish industries is rather limited, although significant differences are found across industries. The oil price sensitivity is very weak in the 1990s, a period of fairly stable and low oil prices. Instead, the link between crude oil and stock prices seems to have increased during the 2000s, becoming primarily positiv…
Sovereign Credit Ratings and Financial Markets Linkages: Application to European Data
2012
We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements. Announcements are not anticipated at 1–2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1–2 weeks; spillover effects especially among EMU countries and from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countrie…
Efectos de las fusiones sobre la concentración y la eficiencia bancaria : el caso de las cajas rurales y los retos de la crisis financiera.
2010
En: Revista española de financiación y contabilidad. ISSN. 0210-2412. n. 146, (2010), págs. 291-321 Las crisis económicas actúan como catalizadoras de procesos de reestructuración empresarial y las fusiones son muchas veces imprescindibles para evitar quiebras. Durante el último decenio se han producido numerosos episodios de concentración entre las Cajas Rurales españolas. El objetivo del trabajo es analizar el efecto de las fusiones entre Cajas Rurales durante el decenio 1998-2007 y ante la crisis fi nanciera actual, mediante un estudio empírico consistente en analizar el Indice Herfi ndhal y la ratio de concentración discreta para medir la concentración y relacionarla con las ratios de r…
GDP clustering: A reappraisal
2012
Abstract This note explores clustering in cross country GDP per capita using recently developed model based clustering methods for panel data. Previous research characterizing the components of the overall distribution of output either use ad hoc methods, or methods which ignore/subvert the panel nature of the data. These new methods allow the characterization of the possible autoregressive relationship of output between time points. We show that traditional static clustering decade by decade gives mixed results regarding clustering over time, while the application of longitudinal mixtures presents three distinct clusters at all periods of time.
On the severity of economic downturns: Lessons from cross-country evidence
2012
Abstract We measure the severity of recessions as a function of their amplitude and duration. Within a quantile regression framework, we assess what causes economic downturns to be more or less severe. We find that the most severe downturns have striking similarities regarding cumulated domestic credit and large current account deficits.
Crypto market responses to digital asset policies
2023
We construct daily databases of crypto bans and policy statements concerning central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to estimate their effect on crypto trading volumes for an unbalanced panel of 116 countries from November 2016 to December 2021. We find that trading volume falls by up to 55% in the week after the announcement of a ban, and by up to 25% after a CBDC-supportive speech by senior central bank officials. For the strictest bans, this reduction persists over the subsequent quarter, driven by a reduction in trading by institutional investors. The results suggest that crypto market participants pay significant attention to government policy on digital assets.(c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. A…
Weak efficiency of the cryptocurrency market: a market portfolio approach
2019
ABSTRACTCryptocurrencies have attracted the attention of many investors and policymakers given the increase in popularity of Bitcoin. In this context, we analyse the cryptocurrency market by means ...
Speculation and lottery-like demand in cryptocurrency markets
2021
Abstract This is the first paper that explores lottery-like demand in cryptocurrency markets. Since recent research provides evidence that cryptocurrency returns appear to be short-memory processes, we modify Bali, Cakici and Whitelaw’s (2011) and Bali, Brown, Murray, and Tang’s (2017) MAX measure and employ a weekly forecast horizon and daily log-returns from the previous week to calculate the metric for our portfolio sorts. From an econometric point of view, this study proposes statistical tests that are robust to unknown dynamic dependency structures in the cryptocurrency data. Our results show that average raw and risk-adjusted return differences between cryptocurrencies in the lowest a…
Substituting a substitute currency
2008
Abstract This study evaluates the dynamics between the dollar and euro balances in the Estonian economy. The focus is to apply the traditional currency substitution model to the substitution of the substitute currency, the dollar and euro-related foreign currency balances. We find substitution between the dollar and the euro to be asymmetric in the short run. Inertia, irreversibility and ratchet effects favoured the use of the euro as a substitute currency. No significant evidence of asymmetries in the long run was detected. However, in general, a traditional model for currency substitution was capable of explaining the dynamics of the euro and the dollar as substitute foreign currencies.