Search results for "Forecast"
showing 10 items of 417 documents
The value of local climate and weather information: an economic valuation of the decentralised meteorological provision in Kenya
2020
The development of Sub-Saharan Africa will become increasingly constrained by the acute climate sensitivity of livelihood practices. Weather and climate services can improve climate risks to development by informing plans and decisions that ultimately reduce losses/maximize beneficial opportunities from climate variability and change. Yet, such services are typically highly aggregated, and notoriously difficult to communicate, especially to smallholder farmers and pastoralists where the need is greatest. Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) are decentralizing service provision, and in so doing, offering disaggregated, contextualized, and more easily understandable localized weather and sea…
Uterus Transplantation
2018
Uterus transplantation (UTx) has been successfully introduced as a treatment option for women with absolute uterine factor infertility (AUFI). AUFI representing approximately 3% to 5% of the female general population is linked to either congenital uterine agenesis (Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome), major congenital uterine malformation (hypoplastic uterus, fraction of bicornuate/unicornuate uterus), a surgically absent uterus, or an acquired condition (intrauterine adhesions, leiomyoma) linked to uterine malfunction that causes implantation failure or defect placentation. The world's first clinical uterus transplant was performed in 2000. However, a hysterectomy became necessary sho…
E-health progresses in Romania
2006
The paper is presenting the recent evolution of e-health aspects in Romania. Data presented are based on governmental reports. Surveys organized by the "Lucian Blaga" University of Sibiu and studies carried on by the national Institute for Research and Development in Informatics (I.C.I.) have shown that Romania has important health problems, from cardio vascular diseases (CVD) to cancer and infectious diseases, a high score on mortality and morbidity and a low one on natality. Poor management of the health sector did not help to solve all these problems. In the last 14 years there were several attempts to reform healthcare but none succeeded until now. The health insurance system is operati…
[The key role of public health medical resident education for future public health challenges].
2015
The Italian Committee of medical residents in Hygiene, Preventive Medicine and Public Health is a member of the Italian Society of Hygiene, Preventive Medicine and Public Health with the aim of developing a network among Italian resident in public health and promoting the educational path improvement through comparisons and debates between postgraduate medical schools. In this perspective, during last years account has been taken of some essential topics concerning education of public health medical residents, which represent future health-care and public health experts.Cross-sectional researches were conducted among Italian public health medical residents (PHMRs) through self-administered …
Do different models induce changes in mortality indicators? That is a key question for extending the Lee-Carter model
2021
[EN] The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for modeling mortality rates in the USA was a seminal development in forecasting life expectancies and has been widely used since then. Different extensions of this model, using different hypotheses about the data, constraints on the parameters, and appropriate methods have led to improvements in the model's fit to historical data and the model's forecasting of the future. This paper's main objective is to evaluate if differences between models are reflected in different mortality indicators' forecasts. To this end, nine sets of indicator predictions were generated by crossing three models and three block-bootstrap samples with …
Evaluation of activated sludge model no.2 at high phosphorus concentrations
2001
This paper presents laboratory scale experimentation carried out to study enhanced biological phosphorus removal at high phosphorus concentrations in a sequencing batch reactor. Four series of data obtained in a sequencing batch reactor are examined in light of the Activated Sludge Model No. 2. This model was calibrated using data from the first and second series working at low phosphorus concentrations. The Activated Sludge Model No. 2 successfully characterised the enhanced biological phosphorus removal performance of the sequencing batch reactor at low phosphorus concentrations. The calibrated model was then used to adjust experimental results of the other series working at high phosphor…
A test of transferability for landslides susceptibility models under extreme climatic events: application to the Messina 2009 disaster
2014
A model building strategy is tested to assess the susceptibility for extreme climatic events driven shallow landslides. In fact, extreme climatic inputs such as storms typically are very local phenomena in the Mediterranean areas, so that with the exception of recently stricken areas, the landslide inventories which are required to train any stochastic model are actually unavailable. A solution is here proposed, consisting in training a susceptibility model in a source catchment, which was implemented by applying the binary logistic regression technique, and exporting its predicting function (selected predictors regressed coefficients) in a target catchment to predict its landslide distribu…
Uncertainty in water quality modelling: The applicability of Variance Decomposition Approach
2010
Quantification of uncertainty is of paramount interest in integrated urban drainage water quality modelling. Indeed, the assessment of the reliability of the results of complex water quality models is crucial in understanding their significance. However, the state of knowledge regarding uncertainties in urban drainage models is poor. In the case of integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating the sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones in a manner dependent on the model structure, the estimation of …
Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecasts data to predicting reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area.
2021
<p>Artificial reservoirs are one of the main water supply resources in the Mediterranean areas; their management can be strongly affected by the problems of drought and water scarcity. The reservoir water level is the result of the hydrological processes occurring in the upstream catchment, which, in turn, depend on meteorological variables, such as rainfall and temperature. It follows that a reliable forecast model of the meteorological forcing, along with a reliable water balance model, could enhance the correct management of a reservoir. With regard to the rainfall/temperature forecast model, the use of forecast climate data in the mid-term may provide further support for t…
Water erosion susceptibility mapping by applying Stochastic Gradient Treeboost to the Imera Meridionale River Basin (Sicily, Italy)
2016
Abstract Soil erosion by water constitutes a serious problem affecting various countries. In the last few years, a number of studies have adopted statistical approaches for erosion susceptibility zonation. In this study, the Stochastic Gradient Treeboost (SGT) was tested as a multivariate statistical tool for exploring, analyzing and predicting the spatial occurrence of rill–interrill erosion and gully erosion. This technique implements the stochastic gradient boosting algorithm with a tree-based method. The study area is a 9.5 km 2 river catchment located in central-northern Sicily (Italy), where water erosion processes are prevalent, and affect the agricultural productivity of local commu…