Search results for "Forecast"

Effects of initialization on response of a fully-distributed hydrologic model

2008

Summary Knowledge of initial conditions is very important to correctly model the basin response at the storm event scale. Of particular interest is the influence of topography and soil type on the principal hydrologic variables and runoff generation mechanisms as a function of antecedent wetness conditions. This study addresses the influence of initial states on the short-term hydrologic response and characterizes the effects of topography and soils on the dissipation of the influence of the initialization conditions. Two case studies are considered: a synthetic two-dimensional planar hillslope with various assumed slope magnitudes and soil types; and a real basin (∼800 km2) with actual lan…

A copula-based approach for assessing flood protection overtopping associated with a seasonal flood forecast in Niamey, West Africa

2016

Flood is one of the most important natural disasters that cause huge loss of life and properties every year around the world. Moreover, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies pointed out that floods were by far the greatest cause of homelessness. In West Africa, many countries are damaged from flooding almost every season. Thus, this study aimed to set a seasonal flood forecast model and carried out an evaluation of the level of risk associated with each seasonal forecast. HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System) was used to develop a hydro-dynamical model of Niger river on a 160km reach (80km upstream to 80kmdownstream of Niamey), the…

Dominating Clasp of the Financial Sector Revealed by Partial Correlation Analysis of the Stock Market

2010

What are the dominant stocks which drive the correlations present among stocks traded in a stock market? Can a correlation analysis provide an answer to this question? In the past, correlation based networks have been proposed as a tool to uncover the underlying backbone of the market. Correlation based networks represent the stocks and their relationships, which are then investigated using different network theory methodologies. Here we introduce a new concept to tackle the above question--the partial correlation network. Partial correlation is a measure of how the correlation between two variables, e.g., stock returns, is affected by a third variable. By using it we define a proxy of stoc…

Current trends in biocompatibility testing

1998

Biocompatibility remains the central theme for biomaterials applications in medicine. It is generally accepted that this term means not only absence of a cytotoxic effect but also positive effects in the sense of biofunctionality, i.e. promotion of biological processes which further the intended aim of the application of a biomaterial. The national and international standards for testing regimes represent a lowest common denominator for such applications and do not necessarily ensure that optimal function will be achieved. The authors' thesis is that biocompatibility testing has scope for extensive development with respect to biofunctionality. The present paper reviews current trends in the…

Commentary: Circulating cytokines and risk stratification of stroke incidence--will we do better in future?

2008

Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints

2022

Abstract Can inflation anchoring foster growth? To answer this question, we use panel data on sectoral growth for 22 manufacturing industries from 39 advanced and emerging market economies over 1990–2014 and employ a difference-in-differences strategy based on the theoretical prediction that higher inflation uncertainty particularly depresses investment in industries that are more credit constrained. Industries characterized by high external financial dependence, liquidity needs, and R&D intensity, and low asset tangibility, tend to grow faster in countries with well-anchored inflation expectations. The results, based on an IV approach—using indicators of monetary policy transparency and ce…

Macroeconomic Modelling in EMU: How Relevant is the Change in Regime?

2007

We analyse the likely effects of changes in the monetary and financial regimes of EMU countries on the dynamics of output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced-form models. Data for both the pre-EMU and the EMU regimes are generated by a relatively standard open-economy-DSGE model with sticky prices and wages and restricted access to financial markets for some individuals. We find that the effects of the shift in the monetary regime on the processes followed by macroeconomic variables depend on the nature of the shocks hitting the economy. For plausible shocks distributions the reduction in the accuracy of VAR-base…

Modelling and forecasting mortality in Spain

2008

[EN] Experience shows that static life tables overestimate death probabilities. As a consequence of this overestimation the premiums for annuities, pensions and life insurance are not what they actually should be, with negative effects for insurance companies or policy-holders. The reason for this overestimation is that static life tables, through being computed for a specific period of time, cannot take into account the decreasing mortality trend over time. Dynamic life tables overcome this problem by incorporating the influence of the calendar when graduating mortality. Recent papers on the topic look for the development of new methods to deal with this dynamism. Most methods used in dyna…

Optimizing the level of service quality of a bike-sharing system

2016

Public bike-sharing programs have been deployed in hundreds of cities worldwide, improving mobility in a socially equitable and environmentally sustainable way. However, the quality of the service is drastically affected by imbalances in the distribution of bicycles among stations. We address this problem in two stages. First, we estimate the unsatisfied demand (lack of free lockers or lack of bicycles) at each station for a given time period in the future and for each possible number of bicycles at the beginning of the period. In a second stage, we use these estimates to guide our redistribution algorithms. Computational results using real data from the bike-sharing system in Palma de Mall…

Does the interaction between the accounting method choice and disclosure affect financial analysts’ information environment? The case of joint ventur…

2017

IAS 31 allowed firms to choose between proportionate consolidation and the equity method to record joint ventures in the consolidated accounts of the venturer. Moreover, this election implied a decision about including information in the primary financial statements or in the notes. This paper investigates if financial analysts perceive accounting information differently depending on the method chosen conditioned to the disclosure of the required information in the notes. We analysed a sample of Spanish firms during 2005–2010. We not only considered earnings forecasts, but also examined target prices and stock recommendations. Furthemore, we look at how this accounting choice affects analys…