Search results for "Forecast"

Flexible Data Driven Inventory Management with Interactive Multiobjective Lot Size Optimization

2021

We study data-driven decision support and formalise a path from data to decision making. We focus on lot sizing in inventory management with stochastic demand and propose an interactive multi-objective optimisation approach. We forecast demand with a Bayesian model, which is based on sales data. After identifying relevant objectives relying on the demand model, we formulate an optimisation problem to determine lot sizes for multiple future time periods. Our approach combines different interactive multi-objective optimisation methods for finding the best balance among the objectives. For that, a decision maker with substance knowledge directs the solution process with one’s preference inform…

Pursuit of the emerging dialogue between psychoanalysis and neuroscience: clinical and research perspectives.

2005

A maChine and deep Learning Approach to predict pulmoNary hyperteNsIon in newbornS with congenital diaphragmatic Hernia (CLANNISH): Protocol for a re…

2021

Introduction Outcome predictions of patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) still have some limitations in the prenatal estimate of postnatal pulmonary hypertension (PH). We propose applying Machine Learning (ML), and Deep Learning (DL) approaches to fetuses and newborns with CDH to develop forecasting models in prenatal epoch, based on the integrated analysis of clinical data, to provide neonatal PH as the first outcome and, possibly: favorable response to fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion (FETO), need for Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO), survival to ECMO, and death. Moreover, we plan to produce a (semi)automatic fetus lung segmentation system in Magnetic Resonanc…

SEA presidential address: Group connectivity and cooperation

2011

A model-free methodology is used for the first time to estimate a daily volatility index (VIBEX-NEW) for the Spanish financial market.We use a public data set of daily option prices to compute this index and showthat daily changes in VIBEXNEW display a negative, tight contemporaneous relationship with IBEX daily returns, contrary to other common volatility indicators, as an implied volatility indicator or a GARCH(1,1) conditional volatility model. This relationship is approximately symmetric to the sign on VIBEX-NEW changes and asymmetric to the IBEX-35 returns sign, which make it clearly a suitable volatility index for the Spanish stock market. We also examine the relationship between curr…

IMI – Oral biopharmaceutics tools project – Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 2: An introduction to the simulation exercise and ov…

2016

Orally administered drugs are subject to a number of barriers impacting bioavailability (Foral), causing challenges during drug and formulation development. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling can help during drug and formulation development by providing quantitative predictions through a systems approach. The performance of three available PBPK software packages (GI-Sim, Simcyp®, and GastroPlus™) were evaluated by comparing simulated and observed pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters.Since the availability of input parameters was heterogeneous and highly variable, caution is required when interpreting the results of this exercise. Additionally, this prospective simulation exer…

IMI – Oral biopharmaceutics tools project – Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 3: Identifying gaps in system parameters by analysin…

2016

Three Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic software packages (GI-Sim, Simcyp® Simulator, and GastroPlus™) were evaluated as part of the Innovative Medicine Initiative Oral Biopharmaceutics Tools project (OrBiTo) during a blinded “bottom-up” anticipation of human pharmacokinetics. After data analysis of the predicted vs. measured pharmacokinetics parameters, it was found that oral bioavailability (Foral) was underpredicted for compounds with low permeability, suggesting improper estimates of intestinal surface area, colonic absorption and/or lack of intestinal transporter information. Foral was also underpredicted for acidic compounds, suggesting overestimation of impact of ionisation on pe…

Improving the prediction of air pollution peak episodes generated by urban transport networks

2016

Abstract This paper illustrates the early results of ongoing research developing novel methods to analyse and simulate the relationship between trasport-related air pollutant concentrations and easily accessible explanatory variables. The final scope is to integrate the new models in traditional traffic management support systems for a sustainable mobility of road vehicles in urban areas. This first stage concerns the relationship between the hourly mean concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and explanatory factors reflecting the NO2 mean level one hour back, along with traffic and weather conditions. Particular attention is given to the prediction of pollution peaks, defined as exceedanc…

Three Hours Ahead Prevision of SO2 Pollutant Concentration Using an Elman Neural based Forecaster

2008

Abstract Indoor air quality near the industrial site is tightly joined to pollutant concentration level, since outdoor pollution heavily influences air quality and, consequently, inhabitants health. A pollution management system is essential for health protection. Automatic air quality management systems have became an important research issue with strong implications for inhabitants’ health. In this paper an automatic forecaster based on neural networks for SO 2 concentration prevision is proposed. The analyzed area covers different small towns near the industrial site of Priolo, in the south of the world. Among these towns, Melilli was the first town in Italy that was evacuated for high l…

[Environment and health in Gela (Sicily): present knowledge and prospects for future studies]-Indoor air quality: an environmental and health priority

2009

The study area includes the Municipalities of Gela, Niscemi and Butera located in the South of Sicily, Italy. In 1990 it was declared Area at High Risk of Environmental Crisis. In 2000 part of it was designated as Gela Reclamation Site of National Interest, RSNI. The site includes a private industrial area, public and marine areas, for a total of 51 km(2). Gela populationin 2008 was 77,145 (54,774 in 1961). Sea level:46 m. Total area: 276 km(2). Grid reference: 37 degrees 4' 0" N, 14 degrees 15' 0" E. Niscemi and Butera are located border to Gela. Populations are respectively 26,541 and 5,063. Sea level respectively: 332 m and 402 m. Close to the city of Gela, the industrial area, operating…

Approximate Bayesian Computation for Forecasting in Hydrological models

2018

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical tool for handling parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, mostly characterized by an intractable likelihood function. In this paper, we focus on the application of ABC to hydrological models, not as a tool for parametric inference, but as a mechanism for generating probabilistic forecasts. This mechanism is referred as Approximate Bayesian Forecasting (ABF). The abcd water balance model is applied to a case study on Aipe river basin in Columbia to demonstrate the applicability of ABF. The predictivity of the ABF is compared with the predictivity of the MCMC algorithm. The results show that the ABF method as …