Search results for "Forecasting"
showing 10 items of 329 documents
#EEGManyLabs
2021
There is growing awareness across the neuroscience community that the replicability of findings about the relationship between brain activity and cognitive phenomena can be improved by conducting studies with high statistical power that adhere to well-defined and standardised analysis pipelines. Inspired by recent efforts from the psychological sciences, and with the desire to examine some of the foundational findings using electroencephalog-raphy (EEG), we have launched #EEGManyLabs, a large-scale international collaborative replication effort. Since its discovery in the early 20th century, EEG has had a profound in-fluence on our understanding of human cognition, but there is limited evid…
IMI – Oral biopharmaceutics tools project – Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 4: Prediction accuracy and software comparisons with…
2020
Oral drug absorption is a complex process depending on many factors, including the physicochemical properties of the drug, formulation characteristics and their interplay with gastrointestinal physiology and biology. Physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models integrate all available information on gastro-intestinal system with drug and formulation data to predict oral drug absorption. The latter together with in vitro-in vivo extrapolation and other preclinical data on drug disposition can be used to predict plasma concentration-time profiles in silico. Despite recent successes of PBPK in many areas of drug development, an improvement in their utility for evaluating oral absorption i…
Energy Consumption/Generation Model: Data collected, architecture conceived and scenarios addressed
2014
The paper provides the data collected, the architecture and the conceived scenarios for the development of an Energy Consumptions/Generations Model. This model is suitable for the modeling, processing, analyzing and forecasting of energy consumption and generation at home, building and neighborhood level. Data are from the Census Returns, Electoral Registers & Council of the real town of Loughborough (U.K.). The architecture conceived describes the real distribution system which supplies the Loughborough geographic area. The scenarios considered take into account both traditional dwellings (equipped with dumb appliances) and new dwellings (equipped with smart networked appliances) © 2014 IE…
A fuzzy decision support tool for demand forecasting
2007
In this paper we present a decision support forecasting system to work with univariate time series based on the generalized exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters) approach. It is conceived as an integrated tool which has been implemented in Visual Basic. For improving the accuracy of the automatic forecasting it uses an optimization-based scheme which unifies the stages of estimation of the parameters and selects the best method using a fuzzy multicriteria approach. The elements of the set of local minima of the non-linear programming problems allow us to build the membership functions of the conflicting objectives. A set of real data is analyzed to show the performance of our forecasting too…
Diagnostic immunohistochemistry in neuromuscular disorders.
2005
Most neuromuscular disorders display only non-specific myopathological features in routine histological preparations. However, a number of proteins, including sarcolemmal, sarcomeric, and nuclear proteins as well as enzymes with defects responsible for neuromuscular disorders, have been identified during the past two decades, allowing a more specific and firm diagnosis of muscle diseases. Identification of protein defects relies predominantly on immunohistochemical preparations and on Western blot analysis. While immunohistochemistry is very useful in identifying abnormal expression of primary protein abnormalities in recessive conditions, it is less helpful in detecting primary defects in …
Impact of Noah-LSM Parameterizations on WRF Mesoscale Simulations: Case Study of Prevailing Summer Atmospheric Conditions over a Typical Semi-Arid Re…
2021
The current study evaluates the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to forecast surface energy fluxes over a region in Eastern Spain. Focusing on the sensitivity of the model to Land Surface Model (LSM) parameterizations, we compare the simulations provided by the original Noah LSM and the Noah LSM with multiple physics options (Noah-MP). Furthermore, we assess the WRF sensitivity to different Noah-MP physics schemes, namely the calculation of canopy stomatal resistance (OPT_CRS), the soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance (OPT_BTR), and the surface layer drag coefficient (OPT_SFC). It has been found that these physics options strongly affect the energy partiti…
Co-citation, bibliographic coupling and leading authors, institutions and countries in the 50 years of Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2021
[EN] Technological Forecasting and Social Change (TF&SC) is a leading international journal that publishes major advances related to technological forecasting and future studies. The journal was launched in 1969 and in 2019 celebrated its 50th anniversary. To celebrate 50 years of outstanding contributions, this study presents a bibliometric analysis of TF&SC publications and patterns of citations within TF&SC in terms of authors, institutions and countries. The analysis relies on the Web of Science Core Collection database for bibliographic content and Visualization of Similarities viewer software for mapping of bibliometric data. Our analysis identifies leading authors, universities and c…
Global warming and tourism: chronicles of apocalypse?
2012
PurposeGlobal warming is a huge challenge faced by the mankind in the twenty‐first century and beyond. The paradox of ecology lies in the pervasive attitude of lay people who overtly condemn pollution but do not alter their individual practices. Unfortunately, the scientific community has still not reached unanimous conclusions about the causes or impacts of global warming. To close this gap, the present paper aims to stimulate discussion in two main senses: the relationship between industry and global warming; and the role of tourism in the coming decades.Design/methodology/approachBased on reading and criticism of many works, this paper provides a conceptual framework for readers to under…
Forecasting industry sector default rates through dynamic factor models
2008
In this paper we use a reduced-form model for the analysis of portfolio credit risk. For this purpose, we fit a dynamic factor model to a large data set of default rate proxies and macro-variables for Italy. Multiple step ahead density and probability forecasts are obtained by employing both the direct and indirect methods of prediction together with stochastic simulation of the dynamic factor model. We first find that the direct method is the best performer regarding the out-of-sample projection of financial distressful events. In a second stage of the analysis, we find that reducedform portfolio credit risk measures obtained through the dynamic factor model are lower than those correspond…
Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis
2009
Abstract In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997–1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.