Search results for "Forward volatility"
showing 10 items of 22 documents
A Multivariate Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Model with Leverage for Energy Markets
2009
Spot prices in energy markets exhibit special features like price spikes, mean-reversion inverse, stochastic volatility, inverse leverage effect and co-integration between the different commodities. In this paper a multivariate stochastic volatility model is introduced which captures these features. Second order structure and stationary issues of the model are analysed. Moreover the implied multivariate forward model is derived. Due to the flexibility of the model stylized facts of the forward curve as contango, backwardation and humps are explained. Moreover, a transformed-based method to price options on the forward is described, where fast and precise algorithms for price computations ca…
The Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Real Macroeconomic Performance in the CEE Countries
2011
Working Paper Gate 09-34; International audience; This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member States. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.
The term structure of volatility predictability
2020
Volatility forecasting is crucial for portfolio management, risk management, and pricing of derivative securities. Still, little is known about the accuracy of volatility forecasts and the horizon of volatility predictability. This paper aims to fill these gaps in the literature. We begin this paper by introducing the notions of the spot and forward predicted volatilities and propose to describe the term structure of volatility predictability by the spot and forward forecast accuracy curves. Then we perform a comprehensive study on the term structure of volatility predictability in the stock and foreign exchange markets. Our results quantify the volatility forecast accuracy across horizons …
Volatility co-movements: a time-scale decomposition analysis
2015
In this paper, we are interested in detecting contagion from US to European stock market volatilities in the period immediately after the Lehman Brothers collapse. The analysis is based on a factor decomposition of the covariance matrix, in the time and frequency domain, using wavelets. The analysis aims to disentangle two components of volatility contagion (anticipated and unanticipated by the market). Once we focus on standardized factor loadings, the results show no evidence of contagion (from the US) in market expectations (coming from implied volatility) and evidence of unanticipated contagion (coming from the volatility risk premium) for almost any European country. Finally, the estim…
Pricing of Forwards and Options in a Multivariate Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Model for Energy Markets
2013
In Benth and Vos (2013) we introduced a multivariate spot price model with stochastic volatility for energy markets which captures characteristic features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, and inverse leverage effect as well as dependencies between commodities. In this paper we derive the forward price dynamics based on our multivariate spot price model, providing a very flexible structure for the forward curves, including contango, backwardation, and hump shape. Moreover, a Fourier transform-based method to price options on the forward is described.
Open and Closed Positions and Stock Index Futures Volatility
2011
In this paper we analyze the relationship between volatility in index futures markets and the number of open and closed positions. We observe that, although in general both positions are positively correlated with contemporaneous volatility, in the case of S&P 500, only the number of open positions has influence over the volatility. Additionally, we observe a stronger positive relationship on days characterized by extreme movements of these contracting movements dominating the market. Finally, our findings suggest that day-traders are not associated to an increment of volatility, whereas uninformed traders, both opening and closing their positions, have to do with it.
On the Link Between Volatility and Growth
2011
A model of growth with endogenous innovation and distortionary taxes is presented. Since innovation is the only source of volatility, any variable that influences innovation directly affects volatility and growth. This joint endogeneity is illustrated by working out the effects through which economies with different tax levels differ in their volatility and growth process. We obtain analytical measures of macro volatility based on cyclical output and on output growth rates for plausible parametric restrictions. This analysis implies that controls for taxes should be included in the standard growth-volatility regressions. Our estimates show that the conventional Ramey-Ramey coefficient is af…
THE CARMA INTEREST RATE MODEL
2014
In this paper, we present a multi-factor continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) model for the short and forward interest rates. This model is able to present an adequate statistical description of the short and forward rate dynamics. We show that this is a tractable term structure model and provides closed-form solutions to bond prices, yields, bond option prices, and the term structure of forward rate volatility. We demonstrate the capabilities of our model by calibrating it to a panel of spot rates and the empirical volatility of forward rates simultaneously, making the model consistent with both the spot rate dynamics and forward rate volatility structure.
The Limits to Volatility Predictability: Quantifying Forecast Accuracy Across Horizons
2018
Volatility forecasting is crucial for portfolio management, risk management, and pricing of derivative securities. Still, little is known about how far ahead one can forecast volatility. First, in this paper we introduce the notions of the spot and forward predicted volatilities and propose to describe the term structure of volatility predictability by the spot and forward forecast accuracy curves. Then, by employing a few popular time-series volatility models, we perform a comprehensive empirical study on the horizon of volatility predictability. Our results suggest that, whereas the spot volatility can be predicted over horizons that extend to 35 weeks, the horizon of the forward volatili…
Option-Implied Volatility Spillovers between Risk Factors in FX Markets and States of the Global Economy
2016
This study employs option price data to back out the implied portfolio volatilities of the dollar and carry trade risk factors of the G-10 currencies. To investigate expected volatility spillover effects between risk factors in FX markets, we extend Grobys (2015) and Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) by constructing expected volatility spillover indices based upon the forecast-error variance decomposition of Vector-Autoregression models employing option-implied portfolio volatilities. Surprisingly, the dollar and carry trade risk factors that are orthogonal in the first moment exhibit strong stochastic interrelations in the second expected moment. Our findings indicate that expected high spillover …