Search results for "Futures contract"
showing 10 items of 70 documents
Impact of Stock Price Jumps on Option Values
1999
Many empirical papers document the fact that the distribution of stock returns exhibits fatter tails than would be expected from a normal distribution. This might explain some of the pricing biases of the Black/Scholes model, which is] based on a normal return distribution. Given this result, alternative option pricing models should be based on one of the following three classes of return models: (1) a stationary process, such as a paretian stable or a student’s t-distribution, (2) a mixture of stationary distributions, such as two normal distributions with different means or variances, or a mixture of a diflusion and a pure jump process, or (3) a distribution such as a normal distribution …
An Importance-Performance Matrix Analysis of the Factors Influencing US Tourists to Use Airbnb
2019
After 10 years of Airbnb and its significant growth, this research is conducted to identify which factors really matter to Airbnb users today. It provides an integrated approach, since it aggregates factors that other studies have considered separately. With a sample of 101 US respondents, the partial least squares structural equation modelling results evidence that the only factors that influence future intentions to use Airbnb are its unique and varied accommodations and satisfaction. Enjoyment was also found to have a positive effect on Satisfaction. The study further investigates these factors with an Importance Performance map, providing guidance for the prioritization of managerial ac…
Diagnóstico en educación y transiciones
2014
RESUMENEl artículo presenta una reflexión sobre el papel del Diagnóstico en Educación en las transiciones. Las premisas clásicas del diagnóstico tradicional se desmoronan con la incorporación de nuevas consideraciones relacionadas con el carácter procesual, la impredecibilidad del futuro y cambios sociales y con las nuevas tendencias metodológicas del diagnóstico. Desde una perspectiva sistémica, se sugiere un diagnóstico centrado en dos áreas prioritarias: a) la exploración de las causas que impiden el desarrollo de los individuos y el proceso de transformación de sus habilidades y, b) el compromiso paralelo con una transformación educativa y social. Asimismo, el artículo repasa el sentido…
The response of Brent crude oil to the European central bank monetary policy
2022
Este artículo examina el impacto de las decisiones de política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) sobre los precios del petróleo y la liquidez mediante un estudio de eventos con datos intradía. Analizamos el período de enero de 1999 a diciembre de 2020, que incluye la crisis financiera que comenzó en agosto de 2007. Nuestros resultados muestran una respuesta significativa de los rendimientos del petróleo solo durante la crisis financiera. Específicamente, encontramos que los rendimientos de los futuros de petróleo crudo Brent respondieron negativamente a variaciones inesperadas en la prima de riesgo italiana como medida de acciones de política monetaria no convencionales, y positivam…
Anatomy of Risk Premium in UK Natural Gas Futures
2015
In many futures markets, trading is concentrated in the front contract and positions are rolled-over until the strategy horizon is attained. In this paper, a pair-wise comparison between the conventional risk premium and the accrued risk premium in rolled-over positions in the front contract is carried out for UK natural gas futures. Several novel results are obtained. Firstly, and most importantly, the accrued risk premium in rollover strategies is significatively larger than conventional risk premiums and increases with the time to delivery. Specifically, for strategy horizons between three and six months, this difference increases from 1% to 10%. Secondly, it is the first time that risk …
Rolling Over EUAs and CERs
2012
Whatever derivative contract has a finite life limited by their maturity. The construction of long series, however, is of interest for academic, hedging and investments purposes. In this study, we analyze the relevance of the choice of the rollover date on European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emissions Reduction (CERs) futures contracts. We have used five different methodologies to construct long series and the results show that, regardless of the criterion applied, there are not significant differences between the resultant return distribution series. Therefore, the least complex method, which is to roll on the last trading day, can be used in order to reach the same conclusions.…
Short-Term Electricity Futures Prices: Evidence on the Time-Varying Risk Premium
2008
This paper examines empirically the relationship between electricity spot and futures prices, by analysing a decade of data for a set of short term-to-maturity futures contracts traded in the Nordic Power Exchange, Nord Pool. It is found that, on average, there are significant positive risk premiums in short-term electricity futures prices. The significance and size of the premiums, however, varies seasonally over the year; whereas it is greatest during winter, it is zero in summer. It is also found that time-varying risk premiums are significantly related to unexpectedly low reservoir levels. Furthermore, before the unprecedented supply-shock that hit the Nord Pool market around the end of…
On the Pricing and Hedging of Options on Commodity Forward and Futures Contracts - A Note
2007
In recent years there appeared some organized markets for forward contracts and options on these contracts. In this paper we review shortly the organization of trade on a centralized forward market. Assuming a friction-free market with constant interest rate we build a consistent continuous time framework for the valuation and hedging of options on a forward or a futures contract. This framework takes into account the peculiarities of a forward/futures contract. In our framework we consider the pricing and hedging of options on a forward contract and reconsider the Black-76 model for the pricing and hedging of options on a futures contract.
Weather Derivatives and Stochastic Modelling of Temperature
2011
We propose a continuous-time autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics with volatility being the product of a seasonal function and a stochastic process. We use the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model for the stochastic volatility. The proposed temperature dynamics is flexible enough to model temperature data accurately, and at the same time being analytically tractable. Futures prices for commonly traded contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on indices like cooling- and heating-degree days and cumulative average temperatures are computed, as well as option prices on them.
Open and Closed Positions and Stock Index Futures Volatility
2011
In this paper we analyze the relationship between volatility in index futures markets and the number of open and closed positions. We observe that, although in general both positions are positively correlated with contemporaneous volatility, in the case of S&P 500, only the number of open positions has influence over the volatility. Additionally, we observe a stronger positive relationship on days characterized by extreme movements of these contracting movements dominating the market. Finally, our findings suggest that day-traders are not associated to an increment of volatility, whereas uninformed traders, both opening and closing their positions, have to do with it.