Search results for "Government"
showing 10 items of 1098 documents
Predicting bond betas using macro-finance variables
2019
We conduct in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting using the new approach of combining explanatory variables through complete subset regressions (CSR). We predict bond CAPM betas and bond returns conditioning on various macro-finance variables. We explore differences across long-term government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, and high-yield corporate bonds. The CSR method performs well in predicting bond betas, especially in-sample, and, mainly high-yield bond betas when the focus is out-of-sample. Bond returns are less predictable than bond betas.
The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-Out versus Crowding-In Effects
2009
The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of government spending on the private sector, assessing the existence of crowding-out versus crowding-in effects. Using a panel of 145 countries from 1960 to 2007, the results suggest that government spending produces important crowding-out effects, by negatively affecting both private consumption and investment. Moreover, while the effects do not seem to depend on the different phases of economic cycle, they vary considerably among regions. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust to several econometric techniques.
International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending
2019
This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S. cross-border bank lending towards the 45 recipient countries to exogenous domestic fiscal shocks (both measured by spending and revenue) between 1990Q1 and 2012Q4, we find that expansionary domestic fiscal shocks lead to a statistically significant increase in cross-border bank lending. The magnitude of the effect is also economically significant: the effect of 1 percent of GDP increase (decrease) in spending (revenue) is comparable to an exogenous decline in the federal funds ra…
How does public spending affect technical efficiency? Some evidence from 15 European countries
2020
The relationship between government size and economic growth has been widely debated. Revisiting the subject from a distinct angle with respect to the mainstream approach, we provide an empirical analysis of the impact of government size on technical efficiency. The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact of public sector's size and of public expenditure components on 15 European countries’ technical efficiency from 1996 to 2014 by using a True Random Effect model. Using the total public expenditure as a proxy for the government size we estimate simultaneously national optimal production function and technical efficiency by controlling for income distribution and institutional quality. …
Household Debt and Fiscal Multipliers
2015
We study the size of government spending multipliers in a general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in which we allow for different levels of household indebtedness. The main results of the paper are: (a) the presence of impatient households and private debt helps generate government spending multipliers greater than 1; (b) as financial conditions worsen and impatient consumers find it more difficult to borrow (i.e. in a credit crunch), the size of the government spending multiplier falls; (c) conversely, employment, vacancies and unemployment multipliers are larger when access to credit becomes more difficult; and (d) the model explains the observed pattern of responses …
Fiscal multipliers and job-protection regulation
2021
Abstract We study, both theoretically and empirically, how labor market regulation affects fiscal multipliers. We focus on the stringency of employment protection legislation, a prominent source of rigidity in European labor markets. First, using a small-open economy model that features labor-market search-and-matching frictions and nominal rigidities, we show that an increase in government spending has larger output effects when firing costs are lower. The importance of layoff costs for the public spending multiplier is larger in the absence of exchange rate adjustment and in a recession. Second, we confirm these findings empirically using a panel of 26 advanced countries over the period 1…
Was the Oil Sown Evenly? Long-Term Patterns of Regional Inequality in Venezuela (1881–2011)
2020
This chapter presents new estimates for GDP and GDP per capita for the period 1881–2011 for the 23 states and Distrito Capital, which together with the Dependencias Federales, today make up the Republic of Venezuela. Given that the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) does not compile figures either for regional GDP or for the most recent period, calculating and presenting this new evidence is in itself an important contribution to our knowledge of the country’s economic reality. The descriptive evidence on regional income inequality in Venezuela presented in the text shows that its long-term evolution follows an inverted U-shaped curve. However, although inequality today is no greater than it …
Organized crime and public spending: a panel data analysis
2018
The aim of this paper is to investigate, empirically, what components of public spending imply a decreasing effect on organized crime and what components create opportunities for organized crime, discussing also the role of government efficiency. Using a panel data analysis, the results show a strikingly consistent pattern for the EU Member States. Organized crime mainly operates in the distribution of government spending for local public goods and public provision of private services. There is a decreasing effect on organized crime of the public expenditure devoted to education and social policy. Government efficiency in public spending is beneficial to limit the opportunities of the organ…
How Does the Public Spending Affect Technical Efficiency? Some Evidence from 15 European Countries
2019
The relationship between government size and economic growth has been widely debated. Departing from this issue, we provide an empirical analysis of the impact of government size on technical efficiency. The aim of this paper is to estimate by using a True Random Effect model the impact of public sector’s size and of public expenditure components on 15 European countries’ technical efficiency from 1996 to 2011. Using the total public expenditure as a proxy for the government size we estimate simultaneously national optimal production function and technical efficiency model by controlling for income distribution and institutional quality. Our main findings show that the effect of public sect…
Instruments, rules, and household debt: the effects of fiscal policy
2015
In this paper, we look at the interplay between the level of household leverage in the economy and fiscal policy, the latter characterised by different combinations of instruments and rules. When the fiscal rule is defined on lump-sum transfers, government spending or consumption taxes, the impact multipliers of transitory fiscal shocks become substantially amplified in an environment of easy access to credit by impatient consumers, regardless of the primary instruments used. However, when the government reacts to debt deviations by raising distortionary taxes on income, labour or capital, the effects of household debt on the size of the impact output multipliers vanish or even reverse, no …