Search results for "Gross domestic product"
showing 10 items of 78 documents
Why banks are not too big to fail - evidence from the CDS market
2013
This paper argues that bank size is not a satisfactory measure of systemic risk because it neglects aspects such as interconnectedness, correlation, and the economic context. In order to differentiate the effect of bank size from that of systemic importance, we control for systemic risk using the CoVaR measure introduced by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011). We show that a bank's contribution to systemic risk has a significant negative effect on banks’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads, supporting the too‐systemic‐to‐fail hypothesis. Once we control for systemic risk, bank size (relative to gross domestic product (GDP)) has either no or a positive effect on banks’ CDS spreads. The effect of ba…
The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD countries
2012
The aim of this paper is to assess the short term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1% of social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage point, which, given the share of social spending to GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to the one of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending in Health and Unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consump…
Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration
2007
We study affiliations for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with Germany and the USA, using various business cycle measures derived from quarterly real GDP. These measures are Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filtered series and annual growth rates. By using rolling contemporaneous and maximum (over a short lead/lag interval) correlations, we document increasing correlations of EMU countries with Germany, with these typically being largest during the 1990s. We also document a strong leading role for the USA in relation to these countries in the period since 1993, thereby correcting the fallacy that the European business cycle was disjointed from the USA for mos…
Forecasting US Growth During the Great Recession: Is the Financial Volatility the Missing Ingredient?
2012
The Great Recession endured by the main industrialized countries during the period 2008-2009, in the wake of the financial and banking crisis, has pointed out the major role of the financial sector on macroeconomic fluctuations. In this respect, many researchers have started to reconsider the linkages between financial and macroeconomic areas. In this paper, we evaluate the leading role of the daily volatility of two major financial variables, namely commodity and stock prices, in their ability to anticipate the output growth. For this purpose, we propose an extended MIDAS model that allows the forecasting of the quarterly output growth rate using exogenous variables sampled at various high…
Ethiopia's Growth Acceleration and How to Sustain It—insights from a Cross-Country Regression Model
2015
Ethiopia has experienced a growth acceleration over the past decade on the back of an economic strategy emphasizing public infrastructure investment and supported by heterodox macro-financial policies. To analyze the country’s growth performance during 2000–13, the paper employs a neoclassical cross-country System Generalized Method of Moments regression model. The analysis finds that accelerated growth was driven by public infrastructure investment and restrained government consumption, and supported by a conducive external environment. Macroeconomic challenges arising from declining private credit, real currency overvaluation, and relatively high inflation held back some growth. The model…
Is the Tax Burden a Generating Factor of Fiscal Evasion in South-East Europe?
2020
Tax evasion is a pernicious phenomenon, very widespread in the world, which is closely linked to the system of taxes and fees. This is considered to be a response to the excessive fiscal pressure exerted on taxpayers. Bypassing the law is also closely related to the phenomenon of corruption and its removal is a difficult target, under the existing conditions. The main purpose of this paper is to study the influence of corruption and fiscal pressure on the phenomenon of tax evasion, materialized by the shadow economy indicator. The analysis is carried out over a period of 18 years, namely 1999-2016, for six countries of South-Eastern Europe, member states of the European Union, divided into …
Transport in Spain: economic analysis of the sector
1982
Abstract This article analyses the evolution of the transport sector in Spain in recent years, the analysis being presented in three parts. The first part is an analysis of the sector from a macroeconomic point of view and its relation to the most relevant macromagnitudes of the Spanish Economy. The relative importance and relationship of transport is shown in relation to Gross Domestic Product, the evolution and the significance of the different modes of transportation, its significance in the Gross Formation of Fixed Capital and the relationship between transport and energy, balance of payments, employment and the public sector. The second part of the paper is a microeconomic analysis of …
The effects of export and R&D strategies on firms’ markups in downturns: The Spanish case
2020
The Spanish economy was one of those most hit by the Great Recession in the euro area. It suffered a huge decrease in gross domestic product (GDP), affecting especially internal demand, and in busi...
Labor Market Integration and Migration: Impacts on Skill Formation and the Wage Structure
2006
We analyze the impacts of labor market integration and migration on skill formation, wage structures, and per capita GDP of host and source countries. To do so, we propose a model in which heterogeneous agents invest in the acquisition of skills, and in which final good production exhibits increasing returns to scale in the range of available skills. Labor market integration, by allowing for migration in response to wage differentials, changes the wage structures and, therefore, the incentives to become skilled in both host and source countries. We show that our model can largely replicate the empirical evidence concerning international migration, the widening international income dispersio…
Measuring microfinance performance
2015
MFIs are measured according to two dimensions. One is their outreach to poor people, that is, their ability to provide poor families access to financial services. This is the MFIs’ social mission. The other dimension is their financial sustainability, that is, their ability to pay their employees, lenders, and other suppliers, in short, their ability to produce a profit from their operations. We set out the main microfinance measures and confirm earlier findings that profitability is rather weak in microfinance, and that operational costs constitute a large part of the total costs. We argue that researchers should put more efforts into identifying the MFI’s cost drivers because social outre…