Search results for "HD61"
showing 7 items of 7 documents
Towards a resilience management guideline — Cities as a starting point for societal resilience
2019
Unexpected crises and risks affect the urban population. Critical infrastructure dependency, climate change and social dynamics have captured the attention of city decision makers across different disciplines, sectors, and scales. Addressing these challenges mandates an increase in resilience. This article presents the development of the novel European Resilience Management Guideline (ERMG) developed by the European H2020 Smart Mature Resilience (SMR) project. It encompasses five supporting tools for city resilience. The purpose of this article is threefold. First, it describes the extensive co-creation methods used to establish, validate and test the five ERMG tools as collaborations among…
Political risks: the “red shift” in debt sustainability analysis
2020
Political stability and economic policy uncertainty can be key determinants of sovereign debt dynamics, and we show how they can be incorporated in debt sustainability analysis. We distinguish between short-term ambiguity and long-term uncertainty about political risk factors, and using a combination of narrative scenarios and calibrated probabilistic scenarios we obtain a comprehensive heatmap of high-risk debt dynamics. We use Italy as an interesting case study and demonstrate a “red shift” in the assessment of vulnerabilities when accounting for political risks. Ignoring these risks can lead to excessive optimism and wrong decisions.
The Risk Society: Towards a new modernity
2009
The present review discusses one of the pioneer projects authored by Ulrich Beck, regarding risk perception issues, which was originally titled Risikogesellshaft, Auf dem weg in eine andere Moderne or in English The society of risk, towards a new modernity. This review is part of a broader project related to a Social Psychology doctoral thesis on fears of travelling in urban circumstances.
Insurance mechanisms for tropical cyclones and droughts in Pacific Small Island Developing States
2016
One group of locations significantly affected by climate-related losses and damage is the Small Island Developing States (SIDS). One mechanism aiming to reduce such adverse impacts is insurance, with a wide variety of products and models available. Insurance for climate-related hazards affecting Pacific SIDS has not been investigated in detail. This article contributes to filling this gap by exploring how insurance mechanisms might be implemented in the Pacific SIDS for tropical cyclones and droughts. The study examines opportunities and constraints or limitations of some existing insurance mechanisms and programmes as applied to the Pacific SIDS. Eight insurance mechanisms are compared and…
Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast
2019
This study analyzes forecasts of Bitcoin price using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and neural network autoregression (NNAR) models. Employing the static forecast approach, we forecast next-day Bitcoin price both with and without re-estimation of the forecast model for each step. For cross-validation of forecast results, we consider two different training and test samples. In the first training-sample, NNAR performs better than ARIMA, while ARIMA outperforms NNAR in the second training-sample. Additionally, ARIMA with model re-estimation at each step outperforms NNAR in the two test-sample forecast periods. The Diebold Mariano test confirms the superiority of forecast …
Pandemic Prevention and Personality Psychology: Gender Differences in Preventive Health Behaviors during COVID-19 and the Roles of Agreeableness and …
2022
One of the greatest public health crises in recent times, the COVID-19 pandemic, has come with a myriad of challenges in terms of health communication and public cooperation to prevent the spread of the disease. Understanding which are the key determinants that make certain individuals more cooperative is key in effectively tackling pandemics and similar future challenges. In the present study (N = 800), we investigated whether gender differences in compliance with preventive health behaviors (PHB) at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic could be established, and, if so, whether the personality traits of agreeableness and conscientiousness could help explain this presumed relationship. Consis…
Digitization, Epistemic Proximity, and the Education System: Insights from a Bibliometric Analysis
2021
Advances in IoT, AI, Cyber-Physical Systems, Computational Intelligence, and Big Data Analytics require organizations and workforce to be able and willing to learn how to interact with digital technology. In organizations, coordination and cooperation between actors with expertise in business and technology is fundamental, but integration is hard without understanding the terminology and problems of the interlocutor. Epistemic proximity becomes prominent, underlining the importance of an education focused on flexibility, willingness to cope with the unknown, and interdisciplinarity. The main goal of this work is to provide a perspective on how the education system is evolving to support org…