Search results for "Hindcast"
showing 7 items of 7 documents
Use of Lagrangian simulations to hindcast the geographical position of propagule release zones in a Mediterranean coastal fish
2018
International audience; The study of organism dispersal is fundamental for elucidating patterns of connectivity between populations, thus crucial for the design of effective protection and management strategies. This is especially challenging in the case of coastal fish, for which information on egg release zones (i.e. spawning grounds) is often lacking. Here we assessed the putative location of egg release zones of the saddled sea bream (Oblada melanura) along the southeastern coast of Spain in 2013. To this aim, we hindcasted propagule (egg and larva) dispersal using Lagrangian simulations, fed with species-specific information on early life history traits (ELTs), with two approaches: 1) …
Performance of DEMETER calibration for rainfall forecasting purposes: Application to the July–August Sahelian rainfall
2008
International audience; This work assesses and compares the skill of direct and model-output-statistics (MOS) calibrated hindcasts of the July–August rainfall amounts for the dry period 1980–2000 over the Sahel issued from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) experiment, with the aim to highlight among the simulated parameters, i.e., those potentially relevant for rainfall forecasts purposes. Three approaches were used: the DEMETER (1) direct rainfall, (2) MOS-calibrated rainfall, and (3) MOS-calibrated atmospheric dynamics and energy. Canonical correlation analyses (CCA) were employed in the two latter approaches to calib…
The 1-way on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) – Part 3: Meteorological evaluation of the on-line coupled system
2012
Abstract. Three detailed meteorological case studies are conducted with the global and regional atmospheric chemistry model system ECHAM5/MESSy(→COSMO/MESSy)n, shortly named MECO(n), in order to assess the general performance of the on-line coupling of the regional model COSMO to the global model ECHAM5. The cases are characterised by intense weather systems in Central Europe: an intense cold frontal passage in March 2010, a convective frontal event in July 2007, and the high impact winter storm "Kyrill" in January 2007. Simulations are performed with the new on-line-coupled model system and compared to classical, off-line COSMO hindcast simulations driven by ECMWF analyses. Precipitation o…
Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51
2016
Abstract. Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations (1950–2011), hindcast simulations with specified dynamics (1979–2013), i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations (1950–2100). The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two diff…
Wave Energy Assessment around the Aegadian Islands (Sicily)
2019
This paper presents the estimation of the wave energy potential around the Aegadian islands (Italy), carried out on the basis of high resolution wave hindcast. This reanalysis was developed employing Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) and WAVEWATCH III ® models for the modelling of the atmosphere and the waves, respectively. Wave climate has been determined using the above-mentioned 32-year dataset covering the years from 1979 to 2010. To improve the information about wave characteristics regarding spatial details, i.e., increasing wave model resolution, especially in the nearshore region around the islands, a SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) wave propagation model was used. Results obtai…
Forecasting the vegetation photosynthetic activity over the Sahel: a Model Output Statistics approach
2009
The predictability of the mean August–September photosynthetic activity of vegetation over the Sahel for the period 1982–2002 is explored through a Model Output Statistics approach using ECHAM4.5 retrospective forecasts. Given the poor ability of Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) to correctly simulate rainfall over the Sahel, the stress is put on using atmospheric dynamics alone. The mean July–September predicted fields of zonal wind at 600 hPa, and humidity flux at 850 hPa, are selected because of their key role in the West African Monsoon system and their consistency in AGCMs. Coupled modes of NDVI/atmospheric dynamics are extracted using Canonical Correlation Analyses perfor…
An improvement of June-September rainfall forecasting in the Sahel based upon region April-May moist static energy content (1968-1997)
1999
This study provides statistical evidence that June–September Sahelian rainfall hindcasts currently based on oceanic thermal predictors apprehend more the negative trend than the interannual rainfall variations. Four physically meaningful predictors of June–September Sahel rainfall are first selected through the near-surface April–May information and several experimental hindcasts provided. We then discuss the skills achieved using regression techniques and cross-validated discriminant functions. In that context, 8/11 of the driest seasons and 8/10 of the wettest are correctly predicted. Finally using completely independent training and working periods we show that better and significant hin…