Search results for "Hypothesis"
showing 10 items of 426 documents
Do Multinationals Deteriorate Developing Countries' Export Prices? The Impact of FDI on Net Barter Terms of Trade
2015
This paper explores the economic relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries and the export prices of the latter, measured by terms of trade. It is rst shown that economic theory suggests such a relationship for various reasons but is inconclusive about the direction of the eect. To address this open issue empirically, I analyze data on more than 50 developing countries throughout the period 1980 - 2008 using robust dynamic panel data methods. The results show that FDI had an economically relevant and statistically signicant positive impact on developing countries’ net barter terms of trade. A higher level of education in the developing country fosters this …
SECULAR MEAN REVERSION AND LONG-RUN PREDICTABILITY OF THE STOCK MARKET
2016
Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods longer than 10 years. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper begins by performing formal tests of the random walk hypothesis in the prices of the real S&P Composite Index over increasing time horizons up to 40 years. Even though our results cannot support the conventional wisdom which says that the stock market is safer for long-term investors, our findings speak in favor of the mean revers…
Market efficiency and price discovery relationships between spot, futures and forward prices: the case of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL)
2016
ABSTRACTThis paper analyses the relationships between prices from three different markets within the Spanish zone of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), namely futures, spot and over the counter (OTC) forward markets. The study focuses on three items: (i) contrasting the Weak-form efficiency hypothesis of the markets involved in the study, (ii) analysing the Semi-strong-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) of the MIBEL futures market and (iii) examining the price discovery relationships between the series of prices of the considered markets.The empirical results confirm that 1-month-, 1-quarter-, 1-year-ahead futures and spot markets satisfy, generally, the Weak-form efficiency hypoth…
Noise traders and smart money: Evidence from online searches
2019
International audience; Traditional finance theory considers that the impact of noise traders' attention on asset prices is offset by attention from smart investors. This paper uses online search data to study the influence of noise traders and smart investors on stock returns and volatility. Adopting an original approach, we construct a proxy for smart investor attention based on investors' online search behavior provided by Wikipedia Page Traffic. We combine this new measure with a standard measure of noise traders' attention as proxied by Google Search Volume Index. We show for a sample of 87 French firms over the period 2008–2018 that only noise traders' attention influences stock retur…
Do firms share the same functional form of their growth rate distribution? A statistical test
2014
We introduce a new statistical test of the hypothesis that a balanced panel of firms have the same growth rate distribution or, more generally, that they share the same functional form of growth rate distribution. We applied the test to European Union and US publicly quoted manufacturing firms data, considering functional forms belonging to the Subbotin family of distributions. While our hypotheses are rejected for the vast majority of sets at the sector level, we cannot rejected them at the subsector level, indicating that homogenous panels of firms could be described by a common functional form of growth rate distribution.
The Economic Value of Volatility Transmission Between the Stock and Bond Markets
2008
This study has two main objectives. Firstly, volatility transmission between stocks and bonds in European markets is studied using the two most important financial assets in these fields: the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index futures contract and the Euro Bund futures contract. Secondly, a trading rule for the major European futures contracts is designed. This rule can be applied to different markets and assets to analyze the economic significance of volatility spillovers observed between them. The results indicate that volatility spillovers take place in both directions and that the stock-bond trading rule offers very profitable returns after transaction costs. These results have important implicatio…
Measuring Social Mobility
1993
Abstract The paper considers the ranking of mobility matrices in a simple Markov model of social mobility. The approach is the dynamic counterpart ot the "static" inequality ranking of income distributions by the Lorenz curve. The derived partial ordering is motivated by welfare considerations, is shown to be equivalent to same intuitive mobility concepts, and is used to screen some immobility indices. The equivalence of the ranking with the "permanent income" Lorenz ordering gives support to the claim that this approach is the natural extension of Kolm′s [The optimal production of social justice, in "Public Economics (J. Margolis and H. Guitton, Eds.), MacMillan, London, 1969], Atkinson′s …
Inference for Lorenz curve orderings
1999
In this paper we consider the issue of performing statistical inference for Lorenz curve orderings. This involves testing for an ordered relationship in a multivariate context and making comparisons among more than two population distributions. Our approach is to frame the hypotheses of interest as sets of linear inequality constraints on the vector of Lorenz curve ordinates, and apply order-restricted statistical inference to derive test statistics and their sampling distributions. We go on to relate our results to others which have appeared in recent literature, and use Monte Carlo analysis to highlight their respective properties and comparative performances. Finally, we discuss in gener…
Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between stock prices and dividends
2008
According to several empirical studies, the linear present-value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long run. We analyse the possible presence of threshold cointegration between real stock prices and dividends for the US market during the period from 1871:1 to 2004:6. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration between stock prices and dividends is rejected in favour of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. We find also that stock prices do not respond to equilibrium error, and dividends respond to the past divergence only if the deviation from the equilibrium error does not exceed the estimated threshold parameter. This in turn would…
Optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets
2020
Abstract Optimal futures hedging positions for those agents trying to maximize their expected utility will depend on their view about the evolution of the market and on how risk adverse they are. The most risk adverse agents will probably decide to full-cover their positions. But when a futures bias exists, hedgers with moderate or low degree of risk aversion can alter their strategy depending on the expected gains in futures markets. In our application to the UK natural gas market, we find a statistically significant time-varying negative futures bias that can be forecasted with confidence. As a result of this bias, most effective and best performing hedging strategies for moderate risk-av…