Search results for "INTEGRATION"

Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC

1996

The aim of this paper is to find some empirical evidence on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) in the Spanish case vis a vis the European Community for the period 1980–89. The main contribution of the paper is the aggregation of the variables corresponding to the countries that participate in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. The results support the importance of the interest differential as an explanatory variable for the short-term adjustment to the PPP. The results follow from powerful estimation techniques, applied in the framework of a multivariate error-correction model using the maximum-likelihood procedure as developed by Joh…

Trade Costs, Trade Balances, and Current Accounts: an application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

2005

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to recon…

EU Refugee Policies and Politics in Times of Crisis: Theoretical and Empirical Perspectives

2017

Phenomena such as civil war, protracted conflict, and deteriorating internal security, especially in the Middle East, Africa and Southern Asia, have triggered massive departures of civilian populations in recent years. The war in Syria alone has displaced over 5 million people (UNHCR, 2017a). While most of these forced migrants are either internally displaced or remain in Syria’s immediate neighbourhood, the numbers of those trying to come to Europe have steeply increased in 2015 and 2016. In each of these two years more than 1.2 million asylum-seekers submitted their asylum claims in the EU (Eurostat, 2017a), as compared to 625,000 in 2014 (Eurostat, 2015, p. 4). This represents the larges…

Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between stock prices and dividends

2008

According to several empirical studies, the linear present-value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long run. We analyse the possible presence of threshold cointegration between real stock prices and dividends for the US market during the period from 1871:1 to 2004:6. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration between stock prices and dividends is rejected in favour of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. We find also that stock prices do not respond to equilibrium error, and dividends respond to the past divergence only if the deviation from the equilibrium error does not exceed the estimated threshold parameter. This in turn would…

A note on nonlinear dynamics in the Spanish term structure of interest rates

2006

Abstract This note applies the methodology to test for threshold cointegration recently proposed by Hansen and Seo (2002) [Hansen, B. E. & Seo, B., (2002). Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models. Journal of Econometrics, 110, 293–318] to the Spanish term structure of interest rates during the period 1980:1–2002:12. The evidence suggests that nonlinear cointegration between long and short interest rates is clearly rejected, so that a linear cointegration model would provide an adequate empirical description for the Spanish term structure of interest rate.

The 2015 Latvian Presidency of the Council of the European Union

2016

Scope of Negative Integration: A Comparative Analysis of Post, Public Transport and Port Services

2014

There is extensive literature that explains how liberalization policy deepens and widens. In the literature of European integration such reform is commonly considered to be the result of a bias towards liberalization in the treaties, thereby giving the European Commission and the European Court of Justice wide-ranging leverage to enforce such reform. However, such approaches have been criticized for being de-politicized – for failing to understand the conflicts inherent in controversial policies. It is therefore of interest to explore the scope conditions of this constitutional bias assumption in areas where liberalization policy is disputed. This article analyzes the EU decision-making pro…

Instability tests in cointegration relationships. An application to the term structure of interest rates

2002

Abstract This paper tries to review, from a practitioner's point of view, the recent strand of literature on cointegration tests allowing for structural changes or parameter instability. Thus, we apply several tests using as an example the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. The results are consistent with the existence of cointegration between the long and the short run Spanish interest rates, with a vector (1,−1), as predicted by the theory. However, there is also evidence of structural instability, mainly at the beginning of 1994, that can be attributed to the financial changes that occurred in Spain as a result of its external commitments in the process of the Eu…

THE EUROPEAN SOCIAL ECONOMY: CONCEPT AND DIMENSIONS OF THE THIRD SECTOR

2008

ABSTRACT**: In recent years a new context has emerged in Europe characterized by a larger growing Europe, the creation of a new European platform for social economy named ‘Social Economy Europe’ and an improvement in research, networks and initiatives in this area from certain European Institutions such as the European Social and Economic Committee. This paper focuses on recurrent, but needing clarification, topics such as the question of definitions, the national recognition of the concept of Social Economy and the size of this European third sector. It begins with a proposition of a conceptual delimitation of the Social Economy and of the different classes of company and organization that…

A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change

2006

Abstract This paper examines whether there is a long‐run stable equilibrium relationship between advertising and sales across the market segments of the UK car industry over the period 1971–2001. In order to achieve this goal, we allow for structural breaks in the series using cointegration techniques. The results show the existence of long‐run equilibrium relationships in all six market segments, although in four of them the relationship is not stable. In general, one structural change is detected in the late 1970s and another in the early 1990s, coinciding with two economic recessions. When we do not account for structural changes, the estimated long‐run elasticities of advertising on sal…