Search results for "Inference"
showing 10 items of 478 documents
Data Augmentation Approach in Bayesian Modelling of Presence-only Data
2011
Abstract Ecologists are interested in prediction of potential distribution of species in suitable areas, essential for planning conservation and management strategies. Unfortunately, often the only available information in such studies is the true presence of the species at few locations of the study area and the associated environmental covariates over the entire area, referred as presence-only data. We propose a Bayesian approach to estimate logistic linear regressions adapted to presence-only data through the introduction of a random approximation of the correction factor in the adjusted logistic model that allows us to overcome the need to know a priori the prevalence of the species.
A Knowledge Based Decision Support System for Bioinformatics and System Biology
2011
In this paper, we present a new Decision Support System for Bioinformatics and System Biology issues. Our system is based on a Knowledge base, representing the expertise about the application domain, and a Reasoner. The Reasoner, consulting the Knowledge base and according to the user’s request, is able to suggest one or more strategies in order to resolve the selected problem. Moreover, the system can build, at different abstraction layers, a workflow for the current problem on the basis of the user’s choices, freeing the user from implementation details and assisting him in the correct configuration of the algorithms. Two possible application scenarios will be introduced: the analysis of …
A Fuzzy Inference Expert System to Support the Decision of Deploying a Military Naval Unit to a Mission
2009
Naval military units are complex systems required to operate in fixed time frames in offshore tasks where maintenance operations are drastically limited. A failure during a mission is a critical event that can drastically influence the mission success. The decision of switching a unit to a mission hence requires complex judgments involving information about the health status of machineries and the environmental conditions. The present procedure aims to support the decision about switching a unit to a mission considering the vagueness and uncertainty of information by means of fuzzy theory and emulates the decision process of a human expert by means of a rule-based inference engine. A numeri…
The Effective Sample Size
2013
Model selection procedures often depend explicitly on the sample size n of the experiment. One example is the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) criterion and another is the use of Zellner–Siow priors in Bayesian model selection. Sample size is well-defined if one has i.i.d real observations, but is not well-defined for vector observations or in non-i.i.d. settings; extensions of critera such as BIC to such settings thus requires a definition of effective sample size that applies also in such cases. A definition of effective sample size that applies to fairly general linear models is proposed and illustrated in a variety of situations. The definition is also used to propose a suitable ‘sc…
Hierarchies of probabilistic and team FIN-learning
2001
AbstractA FIN-learning machine M receives successive values of the function f it is learning and at some moment outputs a conjecture which should be a correct index of f. FIN learning has two extensions: (1) If M flips fair coins and learns a function with certain probability p, we have FIN〈p〉-learning. (2) When n machines simultaneously try to learn the same function f and at least k of these machines output correct indices of f, we have learning by a [k,n]FIN team. Sometimes a team or a probabilistic learner can simulate another one, if their probabilities p1,p2 (or team success ratios k1/n1,k2/n2) are close enough (Daley et al., in: Valiant, Waranth (Eds.), Proc. 5th Annual Workshop on C…
Centering and Compound Conditionals under Coherence
2016
There is wide support in logic , philosophy , and psychology for the hypothesis that the probability of the indicative conditional of natural language, \(P(\textit{if } A \textit{ then } B)\), is the conditional probability of B given A, P(B|A). We identify a conditional which is such that \(P(\textit{if } A \textit{ then } B)= P(B|A)\) with de Finetti’s conditional event, B|A. An objection to making this identification in the past was that it appeared unclear how to form compounds and iterations of conditional events. In this paper, we illustrate how to overcome this objection with a probabilistic analysis, based on coherence, of these compounds and iterations. We interpret the compounds a…
Collection Principles in Dependent Type Theory
2002
We introduce logic-enriched intuitionistic type theories, that extend intuitionistic dependent type theories with primitive judgements to express logic. By adding type theoretic rules that correspond to the collection axiom schemes of the constructive set theory CZF we obtain a generalisation of the type theoretic interpretation of CZF. Suitable logic-enriched type theories allow also the study of reinterpretations of logic. We end the paper with an application to the double-negation interpretation.
Probabilistic entailment and iterated conditionals
2020
In this paper we exploit the notions of conjoined and iterated conditionals, which are defined in the setting of coherence by means of suitable conditional random quantities with values in the interval $[0,1]$. We examine the iterated conditional $(B|K)|(A|H)$, by showing that $A|H$ p-entails $B|K$ if and only if $(B|K)|(A|H) = 1$. Then, we show that a p-consistent family $\mathcal{F}=\{E_1|H_1,E_2|H_2\}$ p-entails a conditional event $E_3|H_3$ if and only if $E_3|H_3=1$, or $(E_3|H_3)|QC(\mathcal{S})=1$ for some nonempty subset $\mathcal{S}$ of $\mathcal{F}$, where $QC(\mathcal{S})$ is the quasi conjunction of the conditional events in $\mathcal{S}$. Then, we examine the inference rules $A…
Generalized probabilistic modus ponens
2017
Modus ponens (from A and “if A then C” infer C) is one of the most basic inference rules. The probabilistic modus ponens allows for managing uncertainty by transmitting assigned uncertainties from the premises to the conclusion (i.e., from P(A) and P(C|A) infer P(C)). In this paper, we generalize the probabilistic modus ponens by replacing A by the conditional event A|H. The resulting inference rule involves iterated conditionals (formalized by conditional random quantities) and propagates previsions from the premises to the conclusion. Interestingly, the propagation rules for the lower and the upper bounds on the conclusion of the generalized probabilistic modus ponens coincide with the re…
Conditional Random Quantities and Iterated Conditioning in the Setting of Coherence
2013
We consider conditional random quantities (c.r.q.’s) in the setting of coherence. Given a numerical r.q. X and a non impossible event H, based on betting scheme we represent the c.r.q. X|H as the unconditional r.q. XH + μH c , where μ is the prevision assessed for X|H. We develop some elements for an algebra of c.r.q.’s, by giving a condition under which two c.r.q.’s X|H and Y|K coincide. We show that X|HK coincides with a suitable c.r.q. Y|K and we apply this representation to Bayesian updating of probabilities, by also deepening some aspects of Bayes’ formula. Then, we introduce a notion of iterated c.r.q. (X|H)|K, by analyzing its relationship with X|HK. Our notion of iterated conditiona…