Search results for "Inflation"
showing 10 items of 210 documents
Carbon and inflation
2021
Abstract This paper investigates whether European Union Allowances (EUAs) can serve as an inflation hedge for two economic areas, four euro countries and two non-euro countries. The Extended Fisher Hypothesis is tested and the evidence shows a strong positive relationship between EUA returns and the unexpected inflation component in all the economic areas or countries analysed, except for the US. Therefore, EUAs are able to provide a hedge against unanticipated inflation rates.
Banking Competition, Collateral Constraints and Optimal Monetary Policy
2013
We analyze optimal monetary policy in a model with two distinct financial frictions. First, borrowing is subject to collateral constraints. Second, credit flows are intermediated by monopolistically competitive banks, thus giving rise to endogenous lending spreads. We show that, up to a second order approximation, welfare maximization is equivalent to stabilization of four goals: inflation, output gap, the consumption gap between constrained and unconstrained agents, and the distribution of the collateralizable asset between both groups. Following both financial and non-financial shocks, the optimal monetary policy commitment implies a short-run trade-off between stabilization goals. Such p…
Competition and inflation differentials in EMU
2008
In a monetary union, inflation rate differentials may be substantial over the business cycle. This paper parameterizes a two-country monetary union in which different economic structures in the two countries generate temporary inflation differentials. Cross-country differences are introduced in (i) the elasticity of demand in the goods markets, which cause producers to discriminate prices, (ii) the degree of price inertia and (iii) the degree of openness or preference for foreign goods in consumption. The model is calibrated to reproduce two average large EMU countries and it is able to generate such inflation differentials. We find the mechanism of price discrimination quantitatively more …
Economic crisis and educational crisis : looking ahead
1986
The worldwide economic crisis has now been with us for a good ten years and, for many countries, the end of the tunnel is not yet in sight and is probably a long way off. So what kind of crisis is this, that can continue for so long, given the fact that, etymologically, the term denotes a brief, crucial moment when the outcome of a troubled situation is decided, for better or for worse? Infelicitous as the term commonly used to describe the present state of the world economy may be, it is none the less true that what is designated as a crisis encompasses a historical phase in which economic growth is lower than in the preceding phase and the problems bound up with certain economic trends (i…
Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases
2020
We investigate the role of global factors in explaining the length of commodity price cycle phases, using a continuous-time Weibull duration model and data for a panel of 33 countries over the period 1980Q1-2015Q4. We find evidence of increasing (constant) positive duration dependence for commodity price booms and busts (normal time spells). Global macroeconomic conditions - in particular, inflation, economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy actions - significantly affect the duration of all commodity price cycle phases. Global environmental conditions also impact the duration of commodity price booms, with a rise in average temperature (rainfall) increasing (reducing) their length. A…
US stock market sensitivity to interest and inflation rates: a quantile regression approach
2016
ABSTRACTThis article studies the sensitivity of the US stock market to nominal and real interest rates and inflation during the 2003–2013 period using quantile regression (QR). The empirical results show that the stock market has a significant sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation and finds differences across sectors and over time. Moreover, the effect of changes in both interest rates and inflation tends to be more pronounced during extreme market conditions, thus distinguishing expansion periods from recession periods.
The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality
2018
Abstract This paper provides new evidence of the effect of conventional monetary policy shocks on income inequality. We construct a measure of unanticipated changes in policy rates—changes in short-term interest rates that are orthogonal to unexpected changes in growth and inflation news—for a panel of 32 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 1990–2013. Our main finding is that contractionary monetary policy shocks increase income inequality, on average. The effect is asymmetric—tightening of policy raises inequality more than easing lowers it—and depends on the state of the business cycle. We find some evidence that the effect increases with the share of labor income and i…
Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints
2022
Abstract Can inflation anchoring foster growth? To answer this question, we use panel data on sectoral growth for 22 manufacturing industries from 39 advanced and emerging market economies over 1990–2014 and employ a difference-in-differences strategy based on the theoretical prediction that higher inflation uncertainty particularly depresses investment in industries that are more credit constrained. Industries characterized by high external financial dependence, liquidity needs, and R&D intensity, and low asset tangibility, tend to grow faster in countries with well-anchored inflation expectations. The results, based on an IV approach—using indicators of monetary policy transparency and ce…
Cross-country comparisons of competition and pricing power in European banking
2009
Abstract Studies of banking competition and competitive behavior both within and across countries typically utilise only one of the few measures that are available. In trying to assess the relative competitive position of banking markets in 14 European countries, existing indicators of competition are found to give conflicting predictions across countries, within countries, and over time. This is because indicators of competition tend to measure different things and are additionally influenced by cross-country differences in cost efficiency, fee income levels, real economic growth and inflation. We attempt to separate bank pricing power from these embodied influences and derive more consist…
Rethinking Monetary Policy with Reference to Monetary Circuit Theory
2011
Standard monetary policy is grounded in the quantity theory of money, which links changes in the general price level to excess money that would induce excess demand on the goods market. This article shows that this theoretical foundation is misleading and harmful to growth. This is so because price determination is multifaceted. Central banks, especially the European Central Bank, currently tighten credit conditions whereas money is not an issue. In this way, they act not only on demand but also on the supply of goods. The additional reference made to rational expectations is an aggravating factor. Is there another way to conduct monetary policy? In this article it is argued that circuit th…