Search results for "Interest rate"

Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US

2000

Abstract This paper offers two new results on interest rate rules. First, we show that the empirical evidence from 1970 onwards for the US is compatible with a Taylor rule when we consider the possibility of changes in the inflation target and in the real interest rate. Second, recursive estimates of a forward-looking version of the Taylor rule for EMU confirm an increasing weight for inflation in the area, possibly as a consequence of the EMS, and, furthermore, a convergence in the nineties to the German value observed for the whole period. This process has coincided with an important reduction in the deviation of inflation across EMU countries. The results also show that credibility probl…

Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread

2012

The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.

Monetary Policy from a Circuitist Perspective

2007

As Arestis says, circuit theory is ‘a strong component of the endogenous money thesis’ (1996: 113). This notably means that circuitists endorse the original Post Keynesian dismissal of the orthodox Monetarist approach to monetary policy by which the quantity of money in the economy should be regulated so as to stifle inflationary pressures. From the endogenous view, money creation is, in Moore’s words (1988), ‘credit-driven’, meaning that money is demanded by the general public and firms to finance spending which is dependent upon prices and money wages. Hence it is prices and money wages that are factors determining the amount of money created and not the contrary. This led Post Keynesian …

Labour Market Institutions and Inflation Differentials in the EU

2015

Adopting a simple Phillips curve framework, we show that different labour market institutions across EU countries are associated with significant differences in the response of inflation to unemployment and exchange rate shocks. More wage coordination and higher union density flatten the Phillips curve and increase the inflation response to the real exchange rate, i.e. the exchange rate pass-through. In addition, using a new approach to the classification of goods and services as "traded" or "non-traded", we show that both these institutional effects are significantly stronger for the more exposed (traded) sector.

Inflation dynamics in a model with firm entry and (some) heterogeneity

2014

We analyse the incidence of endogenous entry and firm TFP-heterogeneity on the response of aggregate inflation to exogenous shocks. We build up an otherwise standard DSGE model in which the number of firms is endogenously determined and firms differ in their steady state level of productivity. This splits the industry structure into firms of different sizes. Calibrating the different transition rates, across firm sizes and out of the market we reproduce the main features of the distribution of firms in Spain. We then compare the inflation response to technology, interest rate and entry cost shocks, among others. We find that structures in which large (more productive) firms predominate tend…

Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models

2010

The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of the economy, and for monetary-fiscal policy interactions. Findings are: (i) There is substantial agreement across models on the sizes of fiscal multipliers. (ii) The sizes of spending and targeted transfers multipliers are large. (iii) Fiscal policy is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it. (iv) The perception of permanent fiscal stimulus leads to significant…

A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU

2001

In this paper we estimate a small forward-looking macroeconomic model for EMU which allows us to analyze the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank through an interest rate rule that stabilizes inflation and output. The estimation of this model, which comprises forward-looking versions of the IS and the Phillips curves as well as the interest rate rule, is conducted by GMM using quarterly data from 1986 to 2000. We find that this simple model matches the dynamic properties of the output gap, inflation and the interest rate in EMU quite accurately. We also perform several exercises that show the response of output, inflation and interest rates …

The CFO’s Information Challenge in Managing Macroeconomic Risk

2010

In this paper we examine the role of the CFO in setting risk management strategy with respect to macroeconomic risk, in particular, and we consider the information requirements for setting a strategy that is consistent with corporate objectives. We argue that macroeconomic risk management requires a broad approach encompassing financial, operational and strategic considerations. Furthermore, several interdependent sources of risk in the macroeconomic environment must be taken into account. Once this interdependence among, for example, exchange rates, interest rates and inflation are taken into account macroeconomic risk management can be considered a relatively self-contained aspect of Inte…

Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread

2010

Domestic vs. International correlations of interest rate maturities

2010

The association between long and short interest rates is traditionally envisaged from a purely domestic perspective, where it is believed an empirical regularity. Hence, the weakening of this relationship in the first half of the 2000s has represented a conundrum, calling for a reassessment of the term structure and the conduct of monetary policy. Some commentators have called for investigations into the international dimension of this puzzle. Hence, in this paper we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to investigate the co-movement of interest rate maturities both at the domestic and international levels for a sample of industrial countries. Specifically, we use the Ng (2006)…