Search results for "Life table"
showing 6 items of 26 documents
Assessing implicit hypotheses in life table construction
2016
AbstractMortality figures are of capital importance for policy-making and public planning, as in forecasting financial provisions in public pension systems. General population life tables are constructed from aggregated statistics, an issue that usually entails adopting some (implicit) assumptions in their construction, such as the hypothesis of closed demographic system or the hypotheses of uniform distributions of death counts (and migration events) by age and calendar year. As microdata have become more abundant and reliable, these hypotheses could be assessed and more assumption-free estimators employed. Using a real database from Spain, we show that the above hypotheses are not appropr…
Estimation of the Combined Effects of Ageing and Seasonality on Mortality Risk: An Application to Spain
2021
Abstract Despite the overwhelming evidence that shows the persistence of intra-annual variations on demographic events (deaths, birth dates and migration flows), life tables are computed and provided on an annual basis. This paper develops a new estimator for estimating sub-annual death rates that, considering the exact moment of occurrence (exact age and day) of events, concurrently accounts for ageing and calendar fluctuations. This paper also shows how modelling the intra-annual variations of death rates, through specific seasonal–ageing indexes, can be used as a tool for constructing new sub-annual tables from annual tables. This new methodology is exemplified using a real database of S…
A geostatistical approach for dynamic life tables: The effect of mortality on remaining lifetime and annuities
2010
Dynamic life tables arise as an alternative to the standard (static) life table, with the aim of incorporating the evolution of mortality over time. The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for projected mortality rates in the US is one of the most outstanding and has been used a great deal since then. Different versions of the model have been developed but all of them, together with other parametric models, consider the observed mortality rates as independent observations. This is a difficult hypothesis to justify when looking at the graph of the residuals obtained with any of these methods. Methods of adjustment and prediction based on geostatistical techniques which expl…
Modelling residuals dependence in dynamic life tables: A geostatistical approach
2008
The problem of modelling dynamic mortality tables is considered. In this context, the influence of age on data graduation needs to be properly assessed through a dynamic model, as mortality progresses over the years. After detrending the raw data, the residuals dependence structure is analysed, by considering them as a realisation of a homogeneous Gaussian random field defined on R × R. This setting allows for the implementation of geostatistical techniques for the estimation of the dependence and further interpolation in the domain of interest. In particular, a complex form of interaction between age and time is considered, by taking into account a zonally anisotropic component embedded in…
A comparison of nonparametric methods in the graduation of mortality: Application to data from the Valencia Region (Spain)
2006
[EN] The nonparametric graduation of mortality data aims to estimate death rates by carrying out a smoothing of the crude rates obtained directly from original data. The main difference with regard to parametric models is that the assumption of an age-dependent function is unnecessary, which is advantageous when the information behind the model is unknown, as one cause of error is often the choice of an inappropriate model. This paper reviews the various alternatives and presents their application to mortality data from the Valencia Region, Spain. The comparison leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a smoothing by means of Generalised Additive Models (GAM) with splines. The most…
Long-term evaluation of non-submerged ITI implants. Part 1: 8-year life table analysis of a prospective multi-center study with 2359 implants.
1997
In the present multi-center study. non-submerged ITI implants were prospectively followed to evaluate their long-term prognosis in fully and partially edentulous patients. In a total of 1003 patients, 2359 implants were consecutively inserted. Following a healing period of 3–6 months, the successfully integrated implants were restored with 393 removable and 758 fixed restorations. Subsequently, all consecutive implants were documented annually up to 8 years. At each examination, the clinical status of all implants was evaluated according to predefined criteria of success. Therefore, the data base allowed the evaluation of 8-year cumulative survival and success rates for 2359 implants. In ad…