Search results for "Macroeconomic"
showing 10 items of 503 documents
Expectation Damages and Bilateral Cooperative Investments
2012
We examine the efficiency of the standard breach remedy expectation damages in a setting where the buyer invests cooperatively and the seller invests both cooperatively and selfishly. Contracts may specify a required quality level and an upper bound to the seller's coordination costs. We find that it is optimal to write an augmented Cadillac contract in which quality is stipulated such that it cannot be met with positive probability together with a very low price. Thus, the seller becomes a residual claimant and the coordination-cost threshold can be used to balance the incentives of the buyer.
Deep and Proximate Determinants of the World Income Distribution
2019
This paper studies the deep and proximate determinants of the evolution of the cross-country distribution of GDP per worker in the period 1960–2008 by a novel method based on an information criterion. We find that countries of our sample follow three distinctive growth regimes identified by two deep determinants, namely life expectancy at birth in 1960 and the share of Catholics in 1965, and that each regime is characterized by non-linearities. Growth regimes appear to be the main cause of the increased inequality and polarization, while technological catch-up, proxied by the initial level of GDP per worker, acts in the opposite direction. Finally, human capital marginally reduces polarizat…
ICT demand behaviour: An international comparison
2009
This study aims to provide some empirical explanations for the gaps in ICT diffusion between industrialized countries, especially European countries vis-à-vis the United States. The panel data cover eleven OECD countries: Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. These annual macroeconomic data span the 1981-2005 period.The analysis provides some original results: (i) the impact on ICT diffusion of the level of education and market rigidities has changed over time. The correlation of ICT diffusion, positive with the level of education and negative with market rigidities, increased over time (in absolute terms)…
Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity
2018
Recently introduced measures for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) included in the data from 1997 - 2016 have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity for both the euro area and the UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU informatio…
Finland’s great depression of the 1990s: Lessons about financial reform based on econometric macro evidence
2020
The paper re‐examines the Finnish Great Depression of the 1990s, based on an open macro model, with specific dummy variables to identify the initial effects of liberalized financial markets and capital mobility, and of the Russian trade collapse. It is shown that the explosive credit expansion resulting from the simultaneous liberalization of the financial markets and international capital movements in 1986 has played the most important role in explaining the uncontrolled growth and the subsequent depression in 1989 in real economic activity in Finland. Their effects were strengthened by a vicious circle between the financial and asset markets. The Russian trade collapse in 1991 had a small…
BEMOD: A DSGE Model for the Spanish Economy and the Rest of the Euro Area
2006
In this paper we present the theoretical foundations and the simulation results obtained with a new dynamic general equilibrium model developed at the Banco de España for the Spanish economy and the rest of Euro area. The model is designed to help in simulating the effect of alternative shocks on the main aggregate variables. The main contributions of this work from a theoretical perspective are the modelling of a monetary union composed of two regions, the inclusion of housing as a durable good with its own sector of production and the degree and detail of the disaggregation considered for each country in the model, which replicates the Quarterly National Accounts. On the empirical side, t…
Limits to Arbitrage and Interest Rates: a Debate Between Keynes, Hawtrey and Hicks
2018
International audience; This paper deals with a debate between Hawtrey, Hicks and Keynes concerning the capacity of the central bank to influence the short-term and the long-term rates of interest. Both Hawtrey and Keynes considered the central bank’s ability to influence short-term rates of interest. However, they do not put the same emphasis on the study of the long-term rates of interest. According to Keynes, long-term rates are influenced by future expected short-term rates (1930, 1936), whereas for Hawtrey (1932, 1937, 1938), long-term rates are more dependent on the business cycle. Short-term rates do not have much effect on long-term rates according to Hawtrey. In 1939, Hicks enters …
Government policy failure in public support for research and development
2014
peer-reviewed Promoting Research and Development (R&D) and innovative activity is a key element of the EU Lisbon Agenda and is seen as playing a central part in stimulating economic development. In this paper we argue that, even allowing for benevolent policy-makers, informational asymmetries can lead to a misallocation of public support for R&D, hence government policy failure, with the potential to exacerbate preexisting market failures. Initially, we explore alternative allocation mechanisms for public support, which can help to minimize the scale of these government policy failures. Of these mechanisms (grants, tax credits, or allocation rules based on past performance), our results sug…
Harnessing Women’s Potential as a Soft Engine for Growth : Lessons from Contrasting Trajectories between Finland and Japan for Growing Economies
2017
Harnessing the vigor of women’s potential is essential for inclusive economic growth in a digital economy moving toward aging society. This can be a soft engine for sustainable growth substitutable for costly hard investment. While there exists explicit evidence of a virtual cycle between economic growth and gender balance improvement, emerging countries cannot afford to overcome the constraints of low income. Given the foregoing, this paper analyzed possible co-evolution between economic growth, gender balance improvement and digital innovation initiated by information and communication technology (ICT) advancement. Using a unique dataset representing the state of gender balance improvemen…
When Investment in Basic Skills Gives Negative Returns
2017
In recent years, the Norwegian government has invested heavily in improving basic skills in the adult population. Initiatives have included legislation, the introduction of work-based adult education programs, and reforms in schooling. In light of this investment, we explore trends in adult literacy and numeracy, by comparing data from two international surveys of adult skills, conducted in 2003 and 2012. Paradoxically, the proportion of low-performing adults appears to have increased, most significantly in the 16- to 24-year age group and in the foreign-born population. The profile of the lowest performing group has changed in the intervening years. These findings suggest that adult educa…