Search results for "Markov Chain Monte Carlo"
showing 10 items of 79 documents
Statistical analysis of β decays and the effective value of gA in the proton-neutron quasiparticle random-phase approximation framework
2016
We perform a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) statistical analysis of a number of measured groundstate-to-ground-state single β+/electron-capture and β− decays in the nuclear mass range of A = 62–142. The corresponding experimental comparative half-lives (log f t values) are compared with the theoretical ones obtained by the use of the proton-neutron quasiparticle random-phase approximation (pnQRPA) with G-matrixbased effective interactions. The MCMC analysis is performed separately for 47 isobaric triplets and 28 more extended isobaric chains of nuclei to extract values and uncertainties for the effective axial-vector coupling constant gA in nuclear-structure calculations performed in the p…
Non-reversible Monte Carlo simulations of spin models
2011
Abstract Monte Carlo simulations are used to study simple systems where the underlying Markov chain satisfies the necessary condition of global balance but does not obey the more restrictive condition of detailed balance. Here, we show that non-reversible Markov chains can be set up that generate correct stationary distributions, but reduce or eliminate the diffusive motion in phase space typical of the usual Monte Carlo dynamics. Our approach is based on splitting the dynamics into a set of replicas with each replica representing a biased movement in reaction-coordinate space. This introduction of an additional bias in a given replica is compensated for by choosing an appropriate dynamics …
Bayesian estimation of edge orientations in junctions
1999
Abstract Junctions, defined as those points of an image where two or more edges meet, play a significant role in many computer vision applications. Junction detection is a widely treated problem, and some detectors can provide even the directions of the edges that meet in a junction. The main objective of this paper is the precise estimation of such directions. It is supposed that the junction point has been previously found by some detector. Also, it is assumed that samples, possibly noisy, of orientations of the edges found in a circular window surrounding the point are available. A mixture of von Mises distributions is assumed for these data, and then a Bayesian methodology is applied to…
A new strategy for effective learning in population Monte Carlo sampling
2016
In this work, we focus on advancing the theory and practice of a class of Monte Carlo methods, population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling, for dealing with inference problems with static parameters. We devise a new method for efficient adaptive learning from past samples and weights to construct improved proposal functions. It is based on assuming that, at each iteration, there is an intermediate target and that this target is gradually getting closer to the true one. Computer simulations show and confirm the improvement of the proposed strategy compared to the traditional PMC method on a simple considered scenario.
Bayesian adaptive estimation: The next dimension
2006
Abstract We propose a new psychometric model for two-dimensional stimuli, such as color differences, based on parameterizing the threshold of a one-dimensional psychometric function as an ellipse. The Ψ Bayesian adaptive estimation method applied to this model yields trials that vary in multiple stimulus dimensions simultaneously. Simulations indicate that this new procedure can be much more efficient than the more conventional procedure of estimating the psychometric function on one-dimensional lines independently, requiring only one-fourth or less the number of trials for equivalent performance in typical situations. In a real psychophysical experiment with a yes–no task, as few as 22 tri…
Hydrological post-processing based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)
2019
[EN] This study introduces a method to quantify the conditional predictive uncertainty in hydrological post-processing contexts when it is cumbersome to calculate the likelihood (intractable likelihood). Sometimes, it can be difficult to calculate the likelihood itself in hydrological modelling, specially working with complex models or with ungauged catchments. Therefore, we propose the ABC post-processor that exchanges the requirement of calculating the likelihood function by the use of some sufficient summary statistics and synthetic datasets. The aim is to show that the conditional predictive distribution is qualitatively similar produced by the exact predictive (MCMC post-processor) or …
Anti-tempered Layered Adaptive Importance Sampling
2017
Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference in signal processing, machine learning and statistics. In this work, we introduce an adaptive importance sampler which mixes together the benefits of the Importance Sampling (IS) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Different parallel MCMC chains provide the location parameters of the proposal probability density functions (pdfs) used in an IS method. The MCMC algorithms consider a tempered version of the posterior distribution as invariant density. We also provide an exhaustive theoretical support explaining why, in the presented technique, even an anti-tempering strategy (reducing the scaling of the posterior) can …
Bayesian calibration of the nitrous oxide emission module of an agro-ecosystem model
2008
1. NitroEurope Open Science Conference on Reactive Nitrogen and the European Greenhouse Gas Balance ; Ghent (Belgique) - (2008-02-20 - 2008-02-21) / Conférence; Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the main biogenic greenhouse gas contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate therefore requires a capacity to predict N2O emissions in relation to environmental conditions and crop management. Biophysical models simulating the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in agro-ecosystems have a unique potential to explore these relationships, but are fraught with high uncertainties in their parameters due to their variations over time and space. H…
Importance sampling type estimators based on approximate marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo
2020
We consider importance sampling (IS) type weighted estimators based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) targeting an approximate marginal of the target distribution. In the context of Bayesian latent variable models, the MCMC typically operates on the hyperparameters, and the subsequent weighting may be based on IS or sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), but allows for multilevel techniques as well. The IS approach provides a natural alternative to delayed acceptance (DA) pseudo-marginal/particle MCMC, and has many advantages over DA, including a straightforward parallelisation and additional flexibility in MCMC implementation. We detail minimal conditions which ensure strong consistency of the sug…
Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models
2011
Abstract This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection crite…