Search results for "Markov chains"
showing 10 items of 73 documents
The use of Markovian metapopulation models: a comparison of three methods reducing the dimensionality of transition matrices.
2001
The use of Markovian models is an established way for deriving the complete distribution of the size of a population and the probability of extinction. However, computationally impractical transition matrices frequently result if this mathematical approach is applied to natural populations. Binning, or aggregating population sizes, has been used to permit a reduction in the dimensionality of matrices. Here, we present three deterministic binning methods and study the errors due to binning for a metapopulation model. Our results indicate that estimation errors of the investigated methods are not consistent and one cannot make generalizations about the quality of a method. For some compared o…
Bioinformatic flowchart and database to investigate the origins and diversity of Clan AA peptidases
2009
Abstract Background Clan AA of aspartic peptidases relates the family of pepsin monomers evolutionarily with all dimeric peptidases encoded by eukaryotic LTR retroelements. Recent findings describing various pools of single-domain nonviral host peptidases, in prokaryotes and eukaryotes, indicate that the diversity of clan AA is larger than previously thought. The ensuing approach to investigate this enzyme group is by studying its phylogeny. However, clan AA is a difficult case to study due to the low similarity and different rates of evolution. This work is an ongoing attempt to investigate the different clan AA families to understand the cause of their diversity. Results In this paper, we…
System Times and Channel Availability for Secondary Transmissions in CRNs: A Dependability Theory based Analysis
2017
[EN] Reliability is of fundamental importance for the performance of secondary networks in cognitive radio networks (CRNs). To date, most studies have focused on predicting reliability parameters based on prior statistics of traffic patterns from user behavior. In this paper, we define a few reliability metrics for channel access in multichannel CRNs that are analogous to the concepts of reliability and availability in classical dependability theory. Continuous-time Markov chains are employed to model channel available and unavailable time intervals based on channel occupancy status. The impact on user access opportunities based on channel availability is investigated by analyzing the stead…
Towards a fuzzy-linguistic based social network sentiment-expression system
2015
Liking allows users of Social Networks, blogs and online magazines to express their support of posts and artifacts by a simple click. Such function is very popular but lacks semantic power, and some platforms have augmented it by allowing to choose a pictographic depiction corresponding to a feeling. What is gained in depth is lost in simplicity, and the wide acceptance liking has enjoyed did not carried to the sentiment version. We outline a sentiment-expression hybrid system based on textual analysis and linguistic fuzzy Markov chains overcoming the intrinsic limitations of liking without burdening the user with complex choices.
Bayesian regularization for flexible baseline hazard functions in Cox survival models.
2019
Fully Bayesian methods for Cox models specify a model for the baseline hazard function. Parametric approaches generally provide monotone estimations. Semi-parametric choices allow for more flexible patterns but they can suffer from overfitting and instability. Regularization methods through prior distributions with correlated structures usually give reasonable answers to these types of situations. We discuss Bayesian regularization for Cox survival models defined via flexible baseline hazards specified by a mixture of piecewise constant functions and by a cubic B-spline function. For those "semi-parametric" proposals, different prior scenarios ranging from prior independence to particular c…
Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks
2015
Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epide…
Bayesian Markov switching models for the early detection of influenza epidemics
2008
The early detection of outbreaks of diseases is one of the most challenging objectives of epidemiological surveillance systems. In this paper, a Markov switching model is introduced to determine the epidemic and non-epidemic periods from influenza surveillance data: the process of differenced incidence rates is modelled either with a first-order autoregressive process or with a Gaussian white-noise process depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or in a non-epidemic phase. The transition between phases of the disease is modelled as a Markovian process. Bayesian inference is carried out on the former model to detect influenza epidemics at the very moment of their onset. Moreover, t…
Bayesian analysis of a disability model for lung cancer survival
2016
Bayesian reasoning, survival analysis and multi-state models are used to assess survival times for Stage IV non-small-cell lung cancer patients and the evolution of the disease over time. Bayesian estimation is done using minimum informative priors for the Weibull regression survival model, leading to an automatic inferential procedure. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used for approximating posterior distributions and the Bayesian information criterion has been considered for covariate selection. In particular, the posterior distribution of the transition probabilities, resulting from the multi-state model, constitutes a very interesting tool which could be useful to help oncolog…
A hierarchical Bayesian birth cohort analysis from incomplete registry data: evaluating the trends in the age of onset of insulin-dependent diabetes …
2005
Childhood diabetes is one of the major non-communicable diseases in children under 15 years of age. It requires a life-long insulin treatment and may lead to serious complications. Along with the worldwide increase in the incidence several countries have recently reported a decreasing trend in the age of onset of the disease. The aim of this study is to analyse long-term data on the incidence of the childhood diabetes in Finland from the birth cohorts perspective. The annual incidence data were available for the period 1965--1996 which translates into 1951--1996 birth cohorts. Hence the data consist of completely and partially observed cohorts. Bayesian modelling was employed in the analysi…
Variable Length Memory Chains: Characterization of stationary probability measures
2021
Variable Length Memory Chains (VLMC), which are generalizations of finite order Markov chains, turn out to be an essential tool to modelize random sequences in many domains, as well as an interesting object in contemporary probability theory. The question of the existence of stationary probability measures leads us to introduce a key combinatorial structure for words produced by a VLMC: the Longest Internal Suffix. This notion allows us to state a necessary and sufficient condition for a general VLMC to admit a unique invariant probability measure. This condition turns out to get a much simpler form for a subclass of VLMC: the stable VLMC. This natural subclass, unlike the general case, enj…