Search results for "Modelling"
showing 10 items of 1353 documents
Technical assessment and evaluation of environmental models and software: Letter to the Editor
2011
International audience; This letter details the collective views of a number of independent researchers on the technical assessment and evaluation of environmental models and software. The purpose is to stimulate debate and initiate action that leads to an improved quality of model development and evaluation, so increasing the capacity for models to have positive outcomes from their use. As such, we emphasize the relationship between the model evaluation process and credibility with stakeholders (including funding agencies) with a view to ensure continued support for modelling efforts. Many journals, including EM&S, publish the results of environmental modelling studies and must judge the w…
Modelling PM10 Crisis Peaks Using Multi-agent Based Simulation: Application to Annaba City, North-East Algeria
2015
The paper describes a MAS (multi-agent system) simulation approach for controlling PM10 (Particulate Matter) crisis peaks. A dispersion model is used with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict the PM10 concentration level. The dispersion and ANN models are integrated into a MAS system. PM10 source controllers are modelled as software agents. The MAS is composed of agents that cooperate with each other for reducing their emissions and control the air pollution peaks. Different control strategies are simulated and compared using data from Annaba (North-East Algeria). The simulator helps to compare and assess the efficiency of policies to control peaks in PM10.
A Simulation-Based Failure Mode Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Control and Prevention in Emergency Departments
2020
Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] outbreak has been declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted problems of sustainable infection prevention and control measures worldwide, particularly the emerging issues with an insufficient supply of personal protective equipment. The aim of this study was to provide an action plan for mitigation of occupational hazards and nosocomial spread of SARS-CoV-2 through a failure mode analysis based on observations during in situ simulations. Methods A multicenter, cross-sectional, observational, simulation-bas…
The role of emtu in mucosae remodeling: Focus on a new model to study chronic inflammatory lung diseases
2020
In recent years, part of the scientific community has focused its attention on the involvement of the epithelial-mesenchymal trophic unit (EMTU) in mucosa remodeling, monitoring its role in chronic inflammatory lung diseases. The term EMTU is used to describe the anatomic and functional relationship between the attenuated fibroblast sheath and epithelial tissue, i.e. the signaling between epithelial cells and the underlying fibroblasts, which are in close indirect physical contact with the former. These interactions are important for many airway functions, such as differentiation during lung growth, repair of damaged tissue and regulation of inflammatory response. Several studies have indic…
Probabilistic stability analysis of social obesity epidemic by a delayed stochastic model
2014
Abstract Sufficient conditions for stability in probability of the equilibrium point of a social obesity epidemic model with distributed delay and stochastic perturbations are obtained. The obesity epidemic model is demonstrated on the example of the Region of Valencia, Spain. The considered nonlinear system is linearized in the neighborhood of the positive point of equilibrium and a sufficient condition for asymptotic mean square stability of the zero solution of the constructed linear system is obtained.
Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks
2009
The objective of this study is to analyze volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the effects of the September 11, March 11 and July 7 financial crises. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the non-synchronous trading problem and the crises themselves. Moreover, a graphical analysis of the Asymmetric Volatility Impulse-Response Functions (AVIRF) is introduced, which takes into consideration the crisis effect. Results suggest that there is bidirectional and asymmetric volatility transmission and show the different impact that terrorist attacks had on both markets. El objetivo d…
Análisis de los modelos matemáticos producidos durante la resolución de problemas de Fermi
2017
[EN] In this paper, we present an analysis of written productions of 16 year-old students while solving Estimation Problems involving Big Numbers (EPiBN). This kind of problems is a particular type of Fermi problems and allows us to introduce modelling processes in Secondary school classrooms. Our analysis supports on the characterization of mathematical models developed by students based on the model definition of Lesh and Harel. The results show that, through the analysis of EPiBN resolutions, differentiating aspects can be distinguished between the models produced by students without modelling experience of those produced by students with prior experience, especially in the concepts and …
Non-parametric probabilistic forecasting of academic performance in Spanish high school using an epidemiological modelling approach
2013
Academic underachievement is a concern of paramount importance in Europe, and particularly in Spain, where around of 30% of the students in the last two courses in high school do not achieve the minimum knowledge academic requirement. In order to analyse this problem, we propose a mathematical model via a system of ordinary differential equations to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, a bootstrapping approach is employed. This technique permits to for…
Mathematical modeling and parameters estimation of a car crash using data-based regressive model approach
2011
Author's version of an article in the journal: Applied Mathematical Modelling. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2011.04.024 n this paper we present the application of regressive models to simulation of car-to-pole impacts. Three models were investigated: RARMAX, ARMAX and AR. Their suitability to estimate physical system parameters as well as to reproduce car kinematics was examined. It was found out that they not only estimate the one quantity which was used for their creation (car acceleration) but also describe the car's acceleration, velocity and crush. A virtual experiment was performed to obtain another set of data for use in further research. An A…
Forward and backward diffusion approximations for haploid exchangeable population models
2001
Abstract The class of haploid population models with non-overlapping generations and fixed population size N is considered such that the family sizes ν1,…,νN within a generation are exchangeable random variables. A criterion for weak convergence in the Skorohod sense is established for a properly time- and space-scaled process counting the number of descendants forward in time. The generator A of the limit process X is constructed using the joint moments of the offspring variables ν1,…,νN. In particular, the Wright–Fisher diffusion with generator Af(x)= 1 2 x(1−x)f″(x) appears in the limit as the population size N tends to infinity if and only if the condition lim N→∞ E((ν 1 −1) 3 )/(N Var …