Search results for "Monetary economics"
showing 10 items of 361 documents
On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases
2021
Abstract Using long-term sovereign ratings data for a panel of 130 countries over the last three decades, we investigate the duration and determinants of sovereign rating phases through the lens of discrete-time Weibull models. We find that the likelihood of the end of the ‘speculative-grade’ phase increases as time goes by (i.e. there is positive duration dependence), but the ‘investment-grade’ phase is not duration dependent. Thus, for sovereigns rated as speculative, the build-up of reputation as good borrowers is a gradual process, whereas the reputation of investment-grade sovereigns solidifies and remains unchanged as time passes. However, the length of both phases significantly depen…
Price Stability and Inflation Persistence During the International Gold Standard: The Scandinavian Case
2009
In the 1870s the three Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden formed the Scandinavian Currency Union. Both the adoption of gold and the monetary union were supposed to lead to price stability in and between these countries. By drawing on new indices of consumer prices the present paper offers an examination of inflation dynamics, defined as price stability and inflation persistence, in the periphery of Scandinavia during the heyday of the international gold standard.
Inflation in a virtual economy – a real or virtual threat?
2014
The aim of the paper is an analysis of the way and circumstances under which inflation can occur in a virtual economy. It is also an attempt to answer the question whether, and in what way virtual inflation may be related to inflation in the real economy. The article is conceptual, because in the present state of statistical data the effects of virtual economies are not carried out, or are generated in a very small number, which makes it impossible to make reliable calculations
Producer Prices in the Transition to a Common Currency
2006
We analyze producer price developments in the transition from a national exchange rate regime to a monetary union. The focus is on the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Stylized facts witness about an exploding gaps in producer-price inflation during the years immediately following the completion of the EMU. Price convergence is found to be an important driver throughout the entire euro period (1999-2005), but with no significant differences in speed compared to the pre euro period. Productivity growth had its primary effect in the first years and effective exchange-rate changes in the later years of the euro period.
Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models
2010
The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of the economy, and for monetary-fiscal policy interactions. Findings are: (i) There is substantial agreement across models on the sizes of fiscal multipliers. (ii) The sizes of spending and targeted transfers multipliers are large. (iii) Fiscal policy is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it. (iv) The perception of permanent fiscal stimulus leads to significant…
A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU
2001
In this paper we estimate a small forward-looking macroeconomic model for EMU which allows us to analyze the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank through an interest rate rule that stabilizes inflation and output. The estimation of this model, which comprises forward-looking versions of the IS and the Phillips curves as well as the interest rate rule, is conducted by GMM using quarterly data from 1986 to 2000. We find that this simple model matches the dynamic properties of the output gap, inflation and the interest rate in EMU quite accurately. We also perform several exercises that show the response of output, inflation and interest rates …
Sentiment Across Asset Markets
2018
In this paper, we study investor sentiment in five major asset markets: stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and housing. Based on Thomson Reuter's sentiment measures extracted from 235 news and social media sources, we find that each market is predicted by its own sentiment. Cross-markets, kitchen sink regressions reveal that the stock market is influenced only by bond sentiment, while bond market is affected just by currency market, which is largely unexplained by others; the commodities are related to currencies and housing, and housing can be predicted by stock and bond sentiment. In an efficient information aggregation by the partial least square (PLS), the predictability of each ma…
The Underpricing of Spanish REITs When Going Public
2019
This study analyses underpricing in a sample of 41 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) from the Spanish market between November 2013 and January 2019. The results show a significant underpricing on the initial-day (either when we compute raw or market-adjusted initial returns) concentrated in the primary market. Besides, price adjustment continues until the third day as we find significant raw and market-adjusted buy-and-hold returns. This underpricing is not accounted for by the theories of information asymmetry but instead by some signalling theories related to capital structure, by the pre-listing stock market conditions and by the peculiarities of the market analysed.
Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan
2007
Abstract This paper explores theoretically and empirically the medium- and long-run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of traded goods prices) and economic growth of a pair of countries—one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home-market effect and the productivity-shock effect. These two effects are tested against each other in a cointegration analysis on data for Japan and the US from 1971 until 1997. Income is cointegrated with the terms of trade. The relevant empirical channel is the home-market effect. However, financial-market effects appear also to be rele…
Exchange Rate and Interest-Rate Driven Competitive Advantages in the EMU
2002
Real exchange and interest rates may still fluctuate inside the EMU and give rise to changes in competitiveness. We find, in contrast to what is generally expected, no convergence in these variables after the introduction of the euro. On the contrary, a divergence is found that is extraordinary when compared to the preceding 40 years. The magnitude of the divergence should urge on a wave of restructuring in the EMU, conditioned upon adequate policy responses. The worst-case scenario involves a flight to structural support and protectionism, challenging the whole idea of the EMU.