Search results for "Monetary union"
showing 10 items of 39 documents
PRICE CONVERGENCE IN THE EUROPEAN CAR MARKET
2008
International audience; This paper examines price convergence in the European Union car market over the period 1995-2005. We find that there is a clear evidence of price convergence among the EU15 countries, but not before 1999. Moreover, countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) started convergence previously to the EU15 as a whole. Finally, exchange rate changes have significantly contributed to price dispersion over time across countries. The results provide significant evidence that trade liberalization and the EMU have enhanced the process of regional integration in the European automobile industry, even though there is room for further measures to promote integration.
Convergence in car prices among European countries
2011
This article contributes to the literature on price convergence in Europe by investigating the existence of stochastic and deterministic convergence of car prices in the EU15 countries. We apply recently developed econometric techniques that allow for multiple structural breaks to an up-to-date dataset. We find considerable evidence of both types of convergence in our sample of countries and car models, therefore suggesting a tendency for relative prices to equalize over time. In addition, we find evidence regarding the importance in this convergence process of both legislative changes taking place in the years 1996 and 2002, and the implementation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium in the European Monetary Union
2018
This article examines the performance of several variables that could be good predictors of the equity risk premium in the European Monetary Union for a period that spans from 2000 to 2015. In-sample, technical indicators display predictive power, matching or exceeding that of traditional economic forecasting variables. We also find consistent results in the fact that combining information from technical and economic variables improves equity risk premium forecasts, compared to using these variables alone. Nevertheless, out-of-sample exercises do not confirm in-sample results. Economic predictors show stronger out-of-sample forecasting ability than technical indicators, and apart from volum…
The macroeconomic governance of the European Monetary Union: A Keynesian perspective
2005
Revised version - May 2006; Extending Asensio's closed-economy framework (2005a,b) to a monetary union, we show that theprinciples of governance which emanate from the so called "New Consensus in Macroeconomics"(NCM), and therefore have been designed for presumed stationary regimes, may cause severedysfunctions, such as depressive macroeconomic policies and unemployment traps, in non-ergodicregimes. The Keynesian approach, on the other hand, pleads in favour of important changes in thecurrent governance of the eurozone. First, since the European Central Bank can not repress distributiveinflationary pressures without having non-temporary depressive effects on aggregate demand andemployment, …
Regional Asymmetric Reactions to Shocks in EMU: an Assessment of Different Approaches
2002
In recent years there has been an increasing research effort in estimating regional asymmetric shocks and assessing their importance within the European Monetary Union (EMU). In this chapter we offer an evaluation of the different approaches by distinguishing them according to methodological underpinnings, variables used and pitfalls and potential extensions of the analysis. The structure of this contribution is the following. In section 2 we discuss the relative importance of asymmetric shocks and the main problems connected with their measurement. In section 3 we focus on the explanatory variables which are assumed to determine the asymmetric reaction to shocks and distinguish between sec…
Il doppio mito: sulla (pretesa) neutralità della politica monetaria della BCE e la (pretesa) non-vincolatività degli indirizzi di politica economica …
2021
Policies adopted by the governance of the EMU during the financial and Covid crises display a clear gap between the “form” and the “substance” of the institutional architecture of title VIII of the TFEU. It is submitted that this architecture is in sharp contrast with the European constitutional tradition. Furthermore, the traditional view is rejected, according to which the EU Commission and Council, as well as the ECB, are devoid of binding powers in the field of economic policy. Some reflections concerning both methodological implications of the foregoing and its possible effects on the European integration process are finally developed
Interest Rate Convergence, External Balances and the Euro Crisis
2016
Typically, the catching-up process between rich Northern Europe and poor Southern Europe and the diverging cost competitiveness between the two regions are considered alternative explanations for the widening current account imbalances in the euro area. This paper proposes a new explanation for the imbalances which led to the 2009 euro crisis i.e. large interest rate differentials among the EMU-12 countries which prevailed before the adoption of the euro. This finding suggests that the euro crisis was, at least to some extent, a consequence of the initial convergence shock.
Economic and fiscal policy coordination after the crisis: is the European Semester promoting more or less state intervention?
2020
The European Union (EU) – and its Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in particular – is often criticized as a predominantly marketoriented project. We analyse to what extent such claims can be substantiated by focusing on one key aspect of the EU’s post-crisis framework for economic governance: the country-specific recom- 15 mendations (CSRs) that the EU has been issuing annually since 2011. Based on an original dataset, we analyse more than 1300 CSRs, which show that the EU does not push uniformly for less state intervention. Rather, the CSRs tend to suggest fiscal restraint and less protection for labour market insiders, while simultaneously 20 promoting measures that benefit vulnerable gr…
Germany Needs a National Stability Pact
2003
In many publications1, Horst Siebert has recommended that national fiscal policies within European Monetary Union be subjected to certain conditions in order to lay the foundation for a stable currency. Provisions to this effect have been laid down in Art. 104 of the EC Treaty and the European Stability and Growth Pact. The first “acid test”, however, has cast doubt on whether these provisions are sufficient to ensure sustainable solid public-sector finance in the member countries.
New Alliances in Post-Brexit Europe: Does the New Hanseatic League Revive Nordic Political Cooperation?
2020
As Brexit removes the Nordic countries’ most powerful ally from the EU, what does this imply for their approach to European affairs? The literature on small states within the EU suggests that they can counterbalance limited bargaining capacities by entering two types of alliances: strategic partnerships with bigger member states and institutionalised cooperation on a regional basis. Against this backdrop we ask whether, by significantly raising the costs of non-cooperation for Nordic governments, the Brexit referendum has triggered a revival of Nordic political cooperation. We scrutinise this conjecture by analysing Nordic strategies of coalition-building on EU financial and budgetary polic…