Search results for "Monetary"

Credit demand and supply shocks in Italy during the Great Recession

2018

In this article, we use Structural VAR analysis to disentangle credit demand and supply shocks and their effect on real economic activity in Italy during the 2008 to 2014 crisis period. The three endogenous variables considered are the loan interest rate, the loans growth rate and the employment to population ratio. The data are observed at annual frequency for each of 103 Italian provinces. The empirical evidence suggests that the variance of the shocks varies across four Italian macro-regions: North, Centre, South and Islands, and hece heteroscedasticity is used to identify (ex ante) the structural shocks. Sign restrictions are used to interpret shocks ex post. The empirical findings sugg…

Does Shariah compliance make interest rate sensitivity of Islamic equities lower? An industry level analysis under different market states

2018

This paper examines the sensitivity of the Dow Jones Islamic market index and its corresponding industry equity indices to changes in the level, slope and curvature of the U.S. term structure of in...

Stock market and exchange rate information in the Taylor rule : Evidence from OECD countries

2017

We analyze the effects of stock market and exchange rate information in a forward-looking Taylor rule for monthly data from 14 OECD countries during the years 1999–2016. Especially the stock market information in the form of dividend but also the currency market information in the form of real exchange rate are revealed to be relevant in Taylor rule for many of the countries examined by helping to strengthen the role of inflation and real economic activity deviations in the policy rule. In many cases the rule also seems to be opportunistic, i.e., the inflation target has been time-varying. peerReviewed

Global connectivity between commodity prices and national stock markets: A time‐varying MIDAS analysis

2021

The timeline of trading frictions in the European carbon market

2012

We evaluate the quality of prices of EU-ETS, the most active European derivative market for greenhouse gas emissions allowances (EUAs). So far, this market has had two phases, a trial phase (from 2005 to 2007) and a commitment phase (from 2008 to 2012). The true value of a trial-phase EUA at the beginning of 2008 was inevitably zero because it could not be used in the commitment phase to cover emission targets. However, continued rumors of over-allocation of EUAs led to an early collapse of the market by May 2007. We study whether this market breakdown and the subsequent outbreak of the international financial crisis had a persistent effect on the quality of the commitment phase. We provide…

Pre-holiday effect, large trades and small investor behaviour

2004

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence of a pre-holiday effect in the most important stocks of the Spanish Stock Exchange which are also traded in both the New York Stock Exchange and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Our results show high abnormal returns on the trading day prior to holidays. Several tests prove that the Spanish holiday effect is not due to market calendars in the USA or Germany. Also, we prove that the pre-holiday effect is not a manifestation of other calendar anomalies. The study of different liquidity measures suggests that the pre-holiday effect could be due to the reluctance of small investors to buy on pre-holidays, which produces an increase in the a…

Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications

2009

This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It finds that 1) most recent housing booms have been very persistent and of a significant magnitude; 2) there appears to be a strong correlation between the persistence and magnitude of booms and subsequent busts; 3) economic costs (in terms of GDP losses during the post-boom phase) depend significantly on the magnitude and duration of the boom and money and credit developments during that period; 4) a numb…

The euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core?

2014

Abstract We examine the determinants of joint default risk of euro area countries during 2007–2011. To accomplish this, we recover joint default probabilities from individual CDS contracts. In contrast to earlier theoretical studies, we find that financial linkages are an active contagion transmission channel only in the case of the troubled periphery euro area economies. During the current sovereign debt crisis, real economy linkages play a more important role in transmitting shocks from the euro area periphery towards its core. Countries that have stronger trade interconnections with troubled economies tend to have a higher expected joint default risk.

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Financial Markets Linkages: Application to European Data

2012

We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements. Announcements are not anticipated at 1–2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1–2 weeks; spillover effects especially among EMU countries and from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countrie…

Substituting a substitute currency

2008

Abstract This study evaluates the dynamics between the dollar and euro balances in the Estonian economy. The focus is to apply the traditional currency substitution model to the substitution of the substitute currency, the dollar and euro-related foreign currency balances. We find substitution between the dollar and the euro to be asymmetric in the short run. Inertia, irreversibility and ratchet effects favoured the use of the euro as a substitute currency. No significant evidence of asymmetries in the long run was detected. However, in general, a traditional model for currency substitution was capable of explaining the dynamics of the euro and the dollar as substitute foreign currencies.