Search results for "Monetary"
showing 10 items of 502 documents
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS, AND THE HOUSING MARKET
2017
In this paper, we assess the characteristics of the housing market and its main determinants. Using data for 20 industrial countries over the period 1970Q1–2012Q2 and a discrete-time Weibull duration model, we find that the likelihood of the end of a housing boom or a housing bust increases over time. Additionally, we show that the different phases of the housing market cycle are strongly dependent on the economic activity, but credit market conditions are particularly important in the case of housing booms. The empirical findings also indicate that although housing booms have similar lengths in European and non-European countries, housing busts are typically shorter in European countries. …
HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?
2016
Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co-movement of busi…
Stock prices and macroeconomic factors: Some European evidence
2016
Abstract This paper analyses the dependence of stock prices on macroeconomic variables in the three largest European economies: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. In recent decades, industrial production and long-term interest rates have been important significant variables accounting for approximately one half of annual movements in stock prices. Both factors seem to be equally important, but a closer examination reveals that the weight of these factors has clearly moved from interest rates to production. This evidence is common to all three of these European countries and is in sharp contrast with the results for the US.
When fiscal consolidation meets private deleveraging
2020
Abstract Inspired by the recent experience in some euro area countries, we analyze the interaction between fiscal consolidation and private deleveraging in a model of a small open economy in a monetary union. The coexistence of long-term private debt and collateral constraints on new loans implies that, following an adverse financial shock, the economy enters a slow private deleveraging process, the duration of which is endogenous to collateral and debt dynamics. In this context, large and/or front-loaded consolidations increase the length and depth of private deleveraging, causing higher relative output losses over the medium run. As a result, such aggressive consolidation strategies entai…
Country size and business cycle volatility: Scale really matters
2007
Abstract In a recent study Andrew Rose found that country size does not matter for several economic outcomes [Rose, A.K., 2006. Size really doesn't matter: In search of a national scale effect. J. Japanese Int. Economies 4, 482–507]. However, he did not consider the effect that country size may have on business-cycle volatility. To investigate the empirical relationship between business cycle volatility and country size, we use a panel data set that includes 167 countries from 1960 to 2000. The results suggest very strongly that the relationship between country size and business cycle volatility is negative and statistically significant. This implies that smaller countries are subject to mo…
Efficiency, endogenous and exogenous credit risk in the banking systems of the Euro area
2005
The implantation of the Euro in 11 of the EU states has driven the big banks to expand their presence in other European countries, which may have negative consequences on their credit risk in view of the disadvantages involved in entering new markets. The aim of this study is to analyse the efficiency and the credit risk of the banks of the most important countries of the Euro area, using a one-stage parametric stochastic procedure that allows one to identify whether the behaviour towards risk of the banks analysed was more cautious or more reckless during the period analysed. The results indicate that adjustments for risk are important in the case of profit efficiency but not in the case o…
Why banks are not too big to fail - evidence from the CDS market
2013
This paper argues that bank size is not a satisfactory measure of systemic risk because it neglects aspects such as interconnectedness, correlation, and the economic context. In order to differentiate the effect of bank size from that of systemic importance, we control for systemic risk using the CoVaR measure introduced by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011). We show that a bank's contribution to systemic risk has a significant negative effect on banks’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads, supporting the too‐systemic‐to‐fail hypothesis. Once we control for systemic risk, bank size (relative to gross domestic product (GDP)) has either no or a positive effect on banks’ CDS spreads. The effect of ba…
Tax Design in the OECD: A Test of the Hines-Summers Hypothesis
2011
This paper investigates the effects of economic size and trade openness on tax design in the OECD. Using data for 30 OECD countries over the 1965–2007 period, we test the recently proposed Hines-Summers [2009] Hypothesis, according to which the smaller the size and the greater the openness of the economy, the more it will rely on expenditure taxes and the less on income taxes. Our findings show that the Hines-Summers Hypothesis can claim broad, statistically significant, and robust empirical support in the OECD data sets we examined.
A rationale for macroeconomic policy coordination: Evidence based on the Spanish peseta
1995
Abstract In the present paper two types of monetary model for the determination of the peseta/DM exchange rate have been specified for the period 1980–1989. One includes the fundamental variables corresponding to the two countries concerned (Germany and Spain) and the other is an aggregate model, where the explanatory variables are the ratios between the fundamentals from the countries inside the ERM of the EMS, and the Spanish fundamentals. The empirical results show that the aggregate model has greater explanatory power, supporting (indirectly) further monetary policy coordination.
Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000
2014
Abstract In this paper, we provide a test of the sustainability of the Spanish government deficit over the period 1850–2000, emphasizing the role played by monetary and fiscal dominance in order to get fiscal solvency. Since the condition of fiscal solvency was satisfied, government deficit would have been sustainable along the sample period. In addition, the whole period can be characterized as one of fiscal dominance.