Search results for "Monetary"
showing 10 items of 502 documents
Financial Fragility and Distress Propagation in a Network of Regions
2012
Building on previous works on business fluctuations, we model the propagation of financial distress in a network of regions, each populated by heterogeneous interacting firms and banks. In order to diversify risk, firm sell goods outside their own region and borrow from banks located there. However, this results in ties across regions which propagate financial distress across regional borders. We investigate how the average level of economic integration affects the probability of both individual and systemic failures. We find that the benefit of greater diversification is eventually offset by the effect of financial acceleration and contagion. In particular, beyond a certain level of integr…
The determinants of increasing equity market comovement: economic or financial integration?
2010
This paper investigates to what extent the substantial increase in exposures of local European equity market returns to global shocks is mainly due to a convergence in cash flows (“economic integration”), to a convergence in discount rates (“financial integration”), or to both. We find that this increased exposure is nearly entirely due to increasing discount-rate betas. This finding is robust to alternative ways of calculating discount-rate and cash-flow shocks.
Western European Studies: Economics
2004
In this entry, we overview major developments of Western European studies in Economics in the last two decades. Given the richness of contributions in this field, we decided to restrict our discussion to three general topics: the theory of economic and financial integration; the economics of unemployment and the microeconomic foundations of market regulation. In the Section 1, we present the evolutions of thought on European monetary and economic integration, with particular emphasis on the discussion of exchange rate regimes, the role of policy authorities, and the cost–benefit analysis related to the establishment of a European monetary union. In Section 2, we examine some results produce…
Risk Profiles for Re-Profiling the Sovereign Debt of Crisis Countries
2014
This paper uses a risk-management approach to re-profile the sovereign debt of countries facing debt crises. Using scenario analysis we develop a risk measure of the sovereign's debt -- Conditional Debt-at-Risk -- and an optimization model is used to trace risk profiles that tradeoff expected cost of debt financing against the Conditional Debt-at-Risk. The risk profiles are particularly informative for crisis countries, as they allow us to identify, with high-probability, debt unsustainability. We develop risk profiles for two Eurozone countries with excessive debt, Cyprus and Italy, both in their current form and under various forms of restructuring or rescheduling, and show how to assess …
Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Emerging and Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables
2012
The aim of this paper is to assess the dynamic impact of banking crises on output for a panel of developing economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 1970 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce significant output losses. Output losses are larger for relatively richer economies, characterized by a higher level of financial deepening and larger current account imbalances. Flexible exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy, and liquidity support policies have been found to attenuate the effect of the crises. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
The macroeconomic effects of electricity-sector privatization
2021
Abstract We examine the macroeconomic effects of privatizing the ownership structure of the electricity market, using a novel indicator of privatization which covers 90 advanced, emerging market, and developing economies, since 1974. Privatization reforms, on average, improve outcomes in the provision of electricity and have positive macroeconomic effects: output and employment increase in the years following electricity-sector privatization reforms. Reforms are also associated also with an increase in income inequality, but the effects are small, on average. These impacts vary according to the business cycle, quality of institutions, and a country's development status, with macroeconomic a…
Commodity market based hedging against stock market risk in times of financial crisis: The case of crude oil and gold
2018
Based on daily data from 1989-2016 we find that the correlations between some relevant commodity market futures and equity returns in the aggregate U.S. market, and specifically in the energy sector stocks have changed strongly during the stock market crisis periods. The correlation between crude oil futures and aggregate U.S. equities increases in crisis periods, whereas in case of gold futures the correlation becomes negative, which supports the safe haven hypothesis of gold. For energy sector equities, the dynamics of hedge ratios does not support using either crude oil or gold futures for cross-hedging during stock market crises.
Bilateral De-Jure Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment: A Gravity Analysis
2021
Abstract This paper introduces a novel dataset on bilateral de-jure exchange rate regimes. The new dataset accounts for the fact that officially pegging to one currency is uninformative about the exchange rate regime prevailing vis-a-vis other currencies, and it allows characterizing bilateral exchange rate regimes based on countries’ ex-ante announcements rather than ex-post observations. We use this data to estimate the effect of expected exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI). Starting from a simple model that suggests that announced exchange rate stability enhances bilateral FDI flows, we provide empirical evidence that lends support to this claim: countries that ar…
Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows
2019
Abstract While global uncertainty—measured by the VIX—has proven to be a robust global “push” factor of international capital flows, there has been no systematic study assessing the role of uncertainty in driving bilateral capital flows. This paper examines the effects of higher country-specific uncertainty on cross-border banking flows using data from the Bank for International Settlements Locational Banking Statistics. The bilateral structure of this data allows disentangling supply factors from demand factors, thereby helping identify the effect of higher uncertainty on cross-border banking flows from other confounding factors. The results of this analysis suggest that: (i) uncertainty i…
Bank competition and multimarket contact intensity
2021
Abstract This paper analyzes the effect of multimarket contact on bank competition. We propose a completely new multimarket contact indicator that not only considers the existence of contacts between banks, but also their intensity, by analyzing the strength–weakness position of banks in terms of branch numbers in comparison to their rivals in the markets where they coincide. We test the new indicator empirically in the context of the Spanish banking sector. The main results suggest a negative relationship between market power and the number of multimarket contacts, rejecting the hypothesis of tacit collusion in the Spanish banking sector. However, the result changes completely when we cons…