Search results for "Monsoon"
showing 10 items of 117 documents
Time evolution of observed July–September sea surface temperature-Sahel climate teleconnection with removed quasi-global effect (1900–2008)
2011
[1] Using sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, and atmospheric information, this statistical study revisits the questions of the July–September SST-Sahel teleconnection variability after removing impact of quasi-global SSTs over the period 1900–2008. The eastern Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean dominate the relationship, both in terms of intensity and time stability, with significant values in 52% and 47% of years, respectively. More than two thirds of the rainy seasons classified as dry (wet) and 16 out of 18 (12 out of 15) of those classified as very dry (very wet) are concomitant of negative (positive) differences between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. Correlations wi…
Expected future changes in the African monsoon between 2030 and 2070 using some CMIP3 and CMIP5 models under a medium-low RCP scenario
2012
[1] The accuracy of African Monsoon (AM) simulations together with expected future changes are presented using eight available CMIP5/AR5 AOGCMs under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and eight CMIP3/AR4 AOGCMs under the A1b scenario, with a multimodel approach and the “one model one vote” concept. The results refer to the ‘present’ period (1960–1999) and to a ‘future horizon’ (2031–2070), and are discussed in terms of monsoon dynamics and climate change. Overall the new simulations seem more realistic. They exhibit more accurate rainfall patterns, although some biases reported in CMIP3 models remain. The future changes show an inverse tendency regarding rainfall amounts with less (more) rainfal…
Dust emissions in the West African heat trough the role of the diurnal cycle and of extratropical disturbances
2008
The summertime West African heat trough (HT) is one of the most active dust sources in the world. A detailed case study during May/June 2006 based upon analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and a new Meteosat dust product illustrates two important mechanisms of dust emissions in this region: (1) The dry continental-scale HT circulation exhibits a strong diurnal cycle characterized by nocturnal low-level jets and downward mixing of momentum to the surface during the build-up of the planetary boundary layer in the morning. This leads to strong gusty surface winds and dust emission, mostly along the northern side of the HT, but also within the southerly monsoon f…
Recent changes in precipitation, ITCZ convection and northern tropical circulation over North Africa (1979-2007)
2011
This article focuses on some recent changes observed in the Tropics with special emphasis on the African monsoon region using high-resolution gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (period 1979–2002), outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and atmospheric reanalyses from the Climate Prediction Center (NCEP-DOE2, period 1979–2007). The results show a rainfall increase in North Africa since the mid-90s with significant northward migrations of rainfall amounts, i.e. + 1.5° for the 400 mm July to September isohyets, whereas deep convection has significantly increased and shifted northward. The subsidence b…
The transatlantic dust transport from North Africa to the Americas-Its characteristics and source regions
2015
Transport of Saharan dust over the Atlantic to the Americas is a relevant process since dust is a nutrient for marine and terrestrial ecosystems. It is therefore important to better quantify the frequency and amount of transatlantic dust transport, its preferred altitude and duration, and the regions of dust origin. This study uses a novel combination of Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics, applied to a previously validated 5 year simulation of the fifth generation European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast-Hamburg-model (ECHAM5)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MEESy) Atmospheric Chemistry model, to quantify these dust transport characteristics and their seasonal variations. Results c…
Organic and inorganic bromine measurements around the extratropical tropopause and lowermost stratosphere: insights into the transport pathways and t…
2021
We report on measurements of total bromine (Brtot) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere taken during 15 flights with the German High Altitude and LOng range research aircraft (HALO). The research campaign WISE (Wave-driven ISentropic Exchange) included regions over the North Atlantic, Norwegian Sea, and northwestern Europe in fall 2017. Brtot is calculated from measured total organic bromine (Brorg) added to inorganic bromine (Bryinorg), evaluated from measured BrO and photochemical modeling. Combining these data, the weighted mean [Brtot] is 19.2±1.2 ppt in the northern hemispheric lower stratosphere (LS), in agreement with expectations for Brtot in the middle stratosphere (Enge…
Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations
2001
The correlation between Sahel rainfall and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the northern summer has been varying for the last fifty years. We propose that the existence of periods of weak or strong relationship could result from an interaction with the global decadal scale sea surface temperature (SST) background. The main modes of SST variability have been extracted through a principal component analysis with Varimax rotation. The correlations between a July-September Sahel rainfall index and these SST modes have been computed on a 20-year running window between 1945 and 1993. The correlations with the interannual ENSO-SST mode are negative, not significant in the 1960s during the tr…
Exploring the predictability of the‘Short Rains’ at the coast of East Africa
2004
The boreal autumn ‘Short Rains’ at the coast of East Africa are deficient when there is weak development of a zonal circulation cell along the Indian Ocean equator, an anomalously low sea-surface temperature in the western portion of the basin, and in the high phase of the southern oscillation. Such large-scale circulation departures and their precursors are described by compact indices. September values of these indices for the period 1958–96 are used to explore the predictability of an index (RON) of October–November rainfall at the coast of East Africa. Regressions with cross-validation over the entire 1958–96 period are evaluated for the early (1958–77) and late (1978–96) halves of the …
Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic vs. ENSO
2001
A 47-year record (1951-1997) of gridded data covering Africa south of the Sahara was used to document the spatial and seasonal patterns of the correlation between precipitation and sea-surface temperatures (SST) in key tropical areas, as depicted by the NIN O3, South Atlantic and North Atlantic indices. El Nino -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is confirmed as playing a dominant part in northeastern, eastern and southern Africa. However, its impact is also found over the Sahel during the northern summer, and other parts of the Gulf of Guinea region outside this season, a hitherto poorly documented feature. Over these two areas, ENSO and Atlantic SST (predominantly South Atlantic) contribute to d…
Sudan-Sahel rainfall onset: Definition of an objective index, types of years, and experimental hindcasts
2006
Using rainfall estimates from the 5-day version of CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project data along with multiscale spatial key descriptors of atmospheric dynamics from National Center for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy reanalysis 2 (NCEP/DOE), we first define a West African monsoon onset index to determine its successive dates of occurrence over the period 1979-2004 (28-29 June in mean with a standard deviation of 8.5 days). Then we focus on the three main types of time evolutions of that index at the moment of the monsoon onset in terms of precipitation, pressure, temperature, and winds at different levels to detect the mos…