Search results for "Monte Carlo method"
showing 10 items of 1234 documents
Uncertainty assessment of a membrane bioreactor model using the GLUE methodology
2010
A mathematical model for the simulation of physical-biological organic removal by means of a membrane bioreactor (MBR) has been previously developed and tested. This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainty of the MBR model. Particularly, the research explores the applicability of the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology that is one of the most widely used methods for investigating the uncertainties in the hydrology and that now on is spreading in other research field. For the application of the GLUE methodology, several Monte Carlo simulations have been run varying the all model influential parameters simultaneously. The model was applied to an MBR pilot pl…
Evaluation of the apparent losses caused by water meter under-registration in intermittent water supply
2009
Apparent losses are usually caused by water theft, billing errors, or revenue meter under-registration. While the first two causes are directly related to water utility management and may be reduced by improving company procedures, water meter inaccuracies are considered to be the most significant and hardest to quantify. Water meter errors are amplified in networks subjected to water scarcity, where users adopt private storage tanks to cope with the intermittent water supply. The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of two variables influencing the apparent losses: water meter age and the private storage tank effect on meter performance. The study was carried out in Palermo (Italy). Th…
Experimental validation of a direct pre-design formula for TLCD
2014
The passive control of vibrations has received in recent years a great deal of attention from researchers. Several types of devices have been proposed in order to reduce the dynamic responses of different kinds of structural systems. Among them, the Tuned Liquid Column Damper (TLCD) has proved to be very effective in reducing vibration of structures. However, since the equations governing the TLCD controlled systems response is nonlinear, the calibration of TLCD parameters is time consuming and not convenient to perform in a pre-design phase. In this context, it has recently been introduced by the authors a formula that allows to choose the optimal parameters of TLCD in a direct and fast wa…
Monte Carlo simulation for the response analysis of long-span suspended cables under wind loads
2004
This paper presents a time-domain approach for analyzing nonlinear random vibrations of long-span suspended cables under transversal wind. A consistent continuous model of the cable, fully accounting for geometrical nonlinearities inherent in cable behavior, is adopted. The effects of spatial correlation are properly included by modeling wind velocity fluctuation as a random function of time and of a single spatial variable ranging over cable span, namely as a one-variate bi-dimensional (1V-2D) random field. Within the context of a Galerkin`s discretization of the equations governing cable motion, a very efficient Monte Carlo-based technique for second-order analysis of the response is prop…
Exploring the uncertainty in capacity estimation at roundabouts
2017
Abstract Purpose In gap-acceptance theory the critical and the follow-up headways have a significant role in determining roundabout entry capacities which in turn depend on circulating flow rates under a specified arrival headway distribution. Calculation considers single mean values of the gap-acceptance parameters, neglecting the inherent variations in these random variables and providing a single value of entry capacity. The purpose of this paper is to derive the entry capacity distribution which accounts for the variations of the contributing (random) variables and suggest how to consider this issue in the operational analysis of the roundabouts. Methods We performed a Monte Carlo simul…
Uncertainty assessment of a model for biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal: Application to a large wastewater treatment plant
2012
Abstract In the last few years, the use of mathematical models in WasteWater Treatment Plant (WWTP) processes has become a common way to predict WWTP behaviour. However, mathematical models generally demand advanced input for their implementation that must be evaluated by an extensive data-gathering campaign, which cannot always be carried out. This fact, together with the intrinsic complexity of the model structure, leads to model results that may be very uncertain. Quantification of the uncertainty is imperative. However, despite the importance of uncertainty quantification, only few studies have been carried out in the wastewater treatment field, and those studies only included a few of …
The identifiability analysis for setting up measuring campaigns in integrated water quality modelling.
2012
Abstract Identifiability analysis enables the quantification of the number of model parameters that can be assessed by calibration with respect to a data set. Such a methodology is based on the appraisal of sensitivity coefficients of the model parameters by means of Monte Carlo runs. By employing the Fisher Information Matrix, the methodology enables one to gain insights with respect to the number of model parameters that can be reliably assessed. The paper presents a study where identifiability analysis is used as a tool for setting up measuring campaigns for integrated water quality modelling. Particularly, by means of the identifiability analysis, the information about the location and …
Application of Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the power injectable on electrical grid by wind farms
2008
This paper is part of a research aimed at assessing the impact of wind generation on the transmission grid of Sicily, second among the Italian regions for wind power installed. To assess the maximum degree of wind generation penetrability in full compliance with the safe operation of the system, it seemed necessary to investigate the reports of contemporary winds and their territorial correlations when load assumes the peak or the minimum. Given the nature of the problem, it has been used a method of analysis based on the application of stochastic simulation techniques type Monte Carlo. In the paper, after describing the current state of wind energy generation in Sicily and development scen…
A Monte Carlo Method for the Auto-Evaluation of the Uncertainties in the Analog-to-Digital Conversion-Based Measurements
2004
This paper concerns with the measurement uncertainty estimation in the analog‐to‐digital conversion‐based instruments. By using an ad hoc developed software tool, the Monte Carlo method is applied in order to assess the uncertainties associated with the measurement results, overcoming the possible inapplicability of the pure theoretical approach prescribed in the ISO – “Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement”. By implementing the software tool in the measurement instruments, the proposed approach can be utilized in order to make the instrument itself able to auto‐estimate the measurement uncertainties.
Probabilistic Approach to the Design of Photovoltaic Distributed Generation in Low Voltage Feeder
2006
This paper presents the probabilistic approach to the design of photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation (DG) and its impact on low voltage (LV) feeder. Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict solar radiation and load, and an exact method is used to solve the power flow. The method is tested on two study cases, and the results are compared with those from deterministic approach based on commonly used scenarios. The probabilistic approach is shown necessary to obtain the optimum PV rating based on technical constraints and different objectives, including accepting a reasonable risk when needed. The results also indicate that PV-DG in a realistic case will most probably improve the voltage …