Search results for "Monte Carlo method"
showing 10 items of 1234 documents
Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model
2007
In this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribu…
Applying the bootstrap technique for studying soil redistribution by caesium-137 measurements at basin scale
2000
Abstract The use of the bootstrap technique to estimate the reference level of137 Cs in an uneroded site is tested. The analysis is developed using 137Cs measurements made in a small experimental Sicilian basin. In the reference area the 137Cs activity is normally distributed with a known sample mean value, m equal to 94.4 mBq cm−2. The influence of137 Cs reference site sampling was determined generating samples having a fixed size, N and six different values of the sample coefficient of variation, CV, by a Monte Carlo technique. Then, for each size N, the probability distribution of the mean μ of the sequences generated by Monte Carlo technique is defined. The soil redistribution is determ…
Uncertainty in sewer sediment deposit modelling: detailed vs simplified modelling approaches.
2012
Abstract The paper presents the results of a study in which the uncertainty levels associated with a detailed and a simplified/parsimonious sewer sediment modelling approach have been compared. The detailed approach used an Infoworks CS sewer network model combined with a user developed sediment transport code and the simplified approach used a conceptual sewer flow and quality model. The two approaches have been applied to a single case study sewer network and the simulation results compared. The case study was selected as moderate storm events had occurred during a 2 year rainfall and sewer flow monitoring period. Flooding had been observed and this was thought to be caused by significant…
Length Slope Factors for applying the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation at Basin Scale in Southern Italy
2000
In this paper, for a basin divided into morphological units, a distributed model based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), with different expressions for the topographic factors, and on the sediment delivery ratio of each morphological unit is used. At first, the caesium-137 data available from a Sicilian basin are calibrated with two different models [the Proportional Method (PM), the Simplified Mass Balance (SMB) model] to provide net soil loss data for each morphological unit. Then, for a selected expression of the topographic factor, the slope length exponent is calculated for each morphological unit, equating the calculated sediment yield with the net soil loss. The an…
Uncertainty analysis of the influence of rainfall time resolution in the modelling of urban drainage systems
2005
In urban drainage modelling, rainfall temporal variability can be considered as one of the most critical knowledge elements when dealing with rainfall–runoff models input data. The rainfall data temporal resolution usually available for practical applications is often lower than that requested for the rainfall–runoff simulation in urban areas, greatly compromising model accuracy. The present paper evaluates the influence of rainfall temporal resolution on the uncertainty of the response of rainfall–runoff modelling in urban environments. Analyses have been carried out using historical rainfall–discharge data collected for about 10 years in Parco d'Orleans experimental catchment (Palermo, It…
Interval Length Analysis in Multi Layer Model
2009
In this paper we present an hypothesis test of randomness based on the probability density function of the symmetrized Kulback-Leibler distance estimated, via a Monte Carlo simulation, by the distributions of the interval lengths detected using the Multi-Layer Model (MLM). The $MLM$ is based on the generation of several sub-samples of an input signal; in particular a set of optimal cut-set thresholds are applied to the data to detect signal properties. In this sense MLM is a general pattern detection method and it can be considered a preprocessing tool for pattern discovery. At the present the test has been evaluated on simulated signals which respect a particular tiled microarray approach …
Model-based automatic tuning of a filtration control system for submerged anaerobic membrane bioreactors (AnMBR)
2014
This paper describes a model-based method to optimise filtration in submerged AnMBRs. The method is applied to an advanced knowledge-based control system and considers three statistical methods: (1) sensitivity analysis (Morris screening method) to identify an input subset for the advanced controller; (2) Monte Carlo method (trajectory-based random sampling) to find suitable initial values for the control inputs; and (3) optimisation algorithm (performing as a supervisory controller) to re-calibrate these control inputs in order to minimise plant operating costs. The model-based supervisory controller proposed allowed filtration to be optimised with low computational demands (about 5min). E…
Defining level A IVIVC dissolution specifications based on individual in vitro dissolution profiles of a controlled release formulation.
2018
Regulatory guidelines recommend that, when a level A IVIVC is established, dissolution specification should be established using averaged data and the maximum difference between AUC and Cmax between the reference and test formulations cannot be greater than 20%. However, averaging data assumes a loss of information and may reflect a bias in the results. The objective of the current work is to present a new approach to establish dissolution specifications using a new methodology (individual approach) instead of average data (classical approach). Different scenarios were established based on the relationship between in vitro-in vivo dissolution rate coefficient using a level A IVIVC of a cont…
Update of the Binoth Les Houches Accord for a standard interface between Monte Carlo tools and one-loop programs
2014
We present an update of the Binoth Les Houches Accord (BLHA) to standardise the interface between Monte Carlo programs and codes providing one-loop matrix elements.
Monte Carlo evaluation of kerma in an HDR brachytherapy bunker
2004
In recent years, the use of high dose rate (HDR) after-loader machines has greatly increased due to the shift from traditional Cs-137/Ir-192 low dose rate (LDR) to HDR brachytherapy. The method used to calculate the required concrete and, where appropriate, lead shielding in the door is based on analytical methods provided by documents published by the ICRP, the IAEA and the NCRP. The purpose of this study is to perform a more realistic kerma evaluation at the entrance maze door of an HDR bunker using the Monte Carlo code GEANT4. The Monte Carlo results were validated experimentally. The spectrum at the maze entrance door, obtained with Monte Carlo, has an average energy of about 110 keV, m…